Key takeaways and analysis from Week 17 in the NFL

Sunday Rundown recaps the most important developments from the day's action and examines their significance moving forward.

Case closed Rob Carr / Getty Images Sport / Getty

It's been a strange season for MVP discourse. Odds are shifting each week. At times, it's felt like we've been rotating between whichever quarterback is coming off the biggest win (you know, a team stat). Thankfully, the most deserving candidates tend to separate themselves by the end of a long year.

And now we can all say it together: It was always Lamar Jackson.

Turn on the tape, and it's not difficult to see that the Ravens superstar has been the most consistently great quarterback throughout the regular season. A new offensive system, along with an improved supporting cast, has allowed Lamar to showcase his talents from the pocket like never before. Pair that often disrespected ability with his unique skill set as a runner, and you get the league's most unstoppable weapon.

But in a world where we've got data for everything, it can be easy to build a case against someone who isn't quite satisfying arbitrary statistical thresholds. Case in point: Heading into this week, Lamar having only 19 passing touchdowns wasn't quite doing it for the Brock Purdy truthers.

One monster performance later, and the statistical arguments aren't quite as compelling. In the biggest spot of the season, with the Ravens needing to beat the Dolphins to clinch the AFC's No. 1 seed, Lamar delivered everything you could possibly want from an MVP quarterback.

Jackson played out of his mind in the 56-19 rout, completing 18 of 21 passes for 321 yards (15.3 yards per attempt) and five touchdowns. He now joins Ben Roethlisberger as the only players in NFL history with a perfect passing rating and five-plus touchdowns in multiple games.

Lamar Jackson averaged +1.13 EPA per dropback against the Dolphins, the 3rd-most by a QB in the NGS era (since 2016).

The top 3 games by EPA per dropback in the NGS era all belong to Lamar Jackson (min. 14 attempts).#MIAvsBAL | #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/40YioEKe7J

- Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 31, 2023

Dominating in this big of a spot effectively ensures, barring some voter malpractice, that Lamar will become the 11th player in NFL history with multiple MVP awards. In case you're wondering, the only others on that list are some of the best this game has ever seen.

That's the company Lamar deservedly finds himself in right now. And with a defense capable of putting the clamps on teams like the 49ers and Dolphins, it may only be a matter of time before he adds a Lombardi Trophy to his resume.

Eagles melting down Kathryn Riley / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The Eagles really might be cooked. I don't have it in me to say so definitively, because everything about this roster still screams super team. If anyone is going to get hot and look completely different in the playoffs, it's probably Philly. But that shouldn't be the extent of the case for a club with this much talent.

Finishing the regular season with three games against the Giants, Cardinals, and Giants again was supposed to be a cakewalk for the Eagles to bounce back from a three-game losing streak and establish some momentum. Last week's win over New York was the first sign that it wouldn't be that simple. Sunday's inexplicable loss to the Cardinals all but confirms this team simply doesn't have it.

While each phase of the game has taken a turn holding Philly back this season, including Jalen Hurts and a star-studded offense, it was a helpless defense taking center stage in the latest crushing letdown.

Arizona's offense entered this week ranked 24th in yards, 26th in scoring, 26th in EPA/play, and 28th in success rate. While those numbers have ticked up slightly since Kyler Murray's return, this unit isn't to be confused with one that strikes fear into the NFL's true contenders.

Yet the Eagles' defense couldn't do a thing to get off the field for much of the day. Arizona controlled the ball for nearly 40 minutes of game time en route to 449 total yards, including 221 on the ground, and a season-best 35 points. Murray and James Conner delivered the dagger with a seven-play, 70-yard touchdown drive to win it in the final minute, capping a second half in which Philly was outscored 29-10.

This kind of alarming defensive performance coming against Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon, whom Eagles fans were so happy to see replaced as defensive coordinator after the Super Bowl, is the most damning sign yet that this thing isn't working.

While it's difficult to imagine Nick Sirianni being put on the hot seat any time soon, perhaps we shouldn't rule anything out. Getting so consistently outcoached after your star coordinators depart for lead jobs elsewhere isn't a great look.

There's no reason for us to be talking about this team the way we are.

Quick slants

More of the same

David Eulitt / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The Chiefs got a big win over the Bengals to clinch their eighth consecutive division title. They'll take a day to enjoy that impressive accomplishment before getting back to work and trying to figure out what in the world is going on with this offense. The Chiefs took their first lead of the game when an Isiah Pacheco touchdown capped a seven-play, 75-yard drive. From there, they could only muster six field goals from Harrison Butker. It was all they needed to win on this day, but that won't get it done in the playoffs. As things stand, the Chiefs would host the Bills on Wild Card Weekend. The offense needs to be better for Kansas City to stand a chance in that matchup.

McCaffrey banged up

The 49ers locking up the No. 1 seed, and the first-round bye that comes with it, took on a new level of importance after Christian McCaffrey exited Sunday's win over the Commanders with a calf injury. Kyle Shanahan didn't seem worried after the game. Maybe it's nothing. But calf injuries are notoriously tricky, so keep an eye on this one heading into the playoffs. McCaffrey is the key to everything San Francisco does on offense. If there were a 49ers player in the running for MVP, he had the best case of anyone. The bye now gives him three weeks to get back to 100% for the playoff run.

Vikings head-scratcher

The Vikings benching Nick Mullens coming off a four-interception loss to the Lions didn't cause much of a stir in the football world. Generally speaking, a journeyman quarterback coughing the ball up that much isn't going to fly. But the benefit of hindsight allows us to ask what exactly they were thinking. Yes, turnovers are bad. But Mullens at least proved capable of moving the ball with 411 yards last week. That's more than we can say for Jaren Hall, who looked exactly like a fifth-round rookie who entered Sunday night with 10 career pass attempts. The offense was predictably awful early against the Packers, and a 23-3 deficit was too much for Mullens to overcome after a half-time change. Turning to an inexperienced rookie quarterback was not the way to handle a must-win game.

Fields still trending up

Quinn Harris / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Another Panthers loss officially secured the No. 1 pick for the Bears. That almost certainly means Chicago will be taking a quarterback at the top of this year's draft. While some will take that as an indictment of Justin Fields' development, let's not get too carried away. This is more about the opportunity to reset with a generational quarterback talent on a rookie deal. Fields continued his strong second half in Sunday's win over the Falcons, accounting for over 300 total yards, a pair of touchdowns, and no turnovers. Quarterback-needy teams should be lining up to take a chance on Fields next season, and it may only cost them in the ballpark of a third-round pick. If he continues on this path, that'll be a steal.

Douglas paying off

The Bills parting with a third-round pick to bring in cornerback Rasul Douglas at the trade deadline looked like a panic move at first glance. Douglas is a proven talent, to be sure, but the price tag wasn't exactly in line with the going rate for non-elite veterans. As it turns out, the Bills knew exactly what they were doing. Douglas has had a major role in salvaging the Buffalo defense at a time when injuries threatened to ruin the season. He was the star of Sunday's win over the Patriots, recording a pair of interceptions for the second time since his arrival. The Bills won't miss that third-round pick one bit.

Too little, too late

The Saints looked like a playoff team in Sunday's win over the Buccaneers. Derek Carr took care of the ball, the run game topped 100 yards for the first time since Dec. 3, and the defense forced four turnovers in shutting down Baker Mayfield. Finally. The crucial win, which improved the Saints to 8-8, was a reminder of what this team could be when everything is clicking. Unfortunately, the consistency has been nonexistent. Now, the clearest path to the playoffs is with a Week 18 win over the Falcons (doable) and a Bucs loss to the Panthers (less doable). They could also sneak into a wild-card spot, but that would require losses from both the Packers and Seahawks. The Saints need a miracle to avoid missing the postseason for the third straight year.

Stat of the week

Jordan Love is now at 3,849 passing yards and 30 TD passes this season.

No Chicago Bears QB has ever reached either of those marks in a single season.

- Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) January 1, 2024

Playoff Picture

The Chiefs and Rams each clinched playoff spots during Sunday's action, while the Ravens and 49ers locked up the No. 1 seeds in their respective conferences. There's still plenty to be sorted out when the regular season wraps up next week, including the final selection order for the 2024 NFL Draft. Check out this week's Playoff Picture for everything you need to know.

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