NHL Tuesday best bets: Embracing change and icy underdogs

Nobody likes change. It's scary.

So I can understand some trepidation as our No. 1 hockey handicapper, Todd Cordell, takes a brief hiatus to welcome a sizable change in his life, and you're left with me to guide the way through much of January for our daily best bets in the NHL.

Using the information we usually publish in our weekly betting guide, the change you'll notice here is a penchant for grimy underdogs and, sadly, no shots-on-goal props. But at least Todd's short-term replacement won't be sleep-deprived and covered in vomit. Probably.

The cheat sheet

If you're thinking about betting any game on the slate, here's a look at the price you should be hoping to get on the moneyline for a valuable bet.

GAME	WIN PROB. (%)	PRICE TO BET
CAR@NYR	48.5/51.5	CAR +117/NYR +104
BOS@CBJ	56.7/43.3	BOS -126/CBJ +154
WSH@PIT	41.4/58.6	WSH +167/PIT -136
MTL@DAL	36.7/63.3	MTL +206/DAL -166
TBL@WPG	41.4/58.6	TBL +168/WPG -136
CGY@MIN	50.6/49.4	CGY +108/MIN +113
CHI@NSH	43.1/56.9	CHI +156/NSH -127
PHI@EDM	37.0/63.0	PHI +203/EDM -163
NYI@COL	38.4/61.6	NYI +191/COL -154
FLA@ARI	51.7/48.3	FLA +103/ARI +118
OTT@VAN	47.1/52.9	OTT +132/VAN -108
DET@SJS	50.6/49.4	DET +108/SJS +113
TOR@LAK	48.6/51.4	TOR +117/LAK +105

Best bets for Jan. 2Bruins (-225) @ Blue Jackets (+190)

Our target price for the Blue Jackets is considerably lower than a nearly 2-1 moneyline on the home underdog. So there's just shy of a 9% edge on a Columbus team that's come out of Christmas break competitive, forcing overtime in all three games against decent competition (at Devils, vs. Maple Leafs, at Sabres).

Admittedly, the Blue Jackets' even-strength metrics haven't been good, but some regression could be in order. More interestingly, the Bruins have an expected goals share (xG%) and high-danger chance share below 50% in their three wins since Christmas and could be vulnerable.

Pick: Blue Jackets (+190)

Lightning (+115) @ Jets (-135)

The Jets barely qualify as a valuable favorite, but that's enough to back Winnipeg. The Jets have emerged from Christmas break with the league's best xG% despite an OT loss to the Blackhawks. Their success at driving play shows that life with Kyle Connor isn't so bad.

The Lightning have had to deal with the absence of Mikhail Sergachev, and their lone win during a three-game homestand came by one goal over the Canadiens. At just 41% in expected goals share, with Andrei Vasilevskiy (.900 save percentage, 2.94 goals-against average) playing beneath his standard midseason form, the Jets should keep rolling.

Pick: Jets (-135)

Panthers (-165) @ Coyotes (+140)

Don't look now, but the Coyotes - a team with tempered expectations entering the season - have won six of seven around the holiday break, with a 4-1 road loss to the Avalanche a lone blemish there's no need to be ashamed of.

Arizona's 12-5 at home this season, while the Panthers haven't left Florida since Dec. 18 - a five-game trip that saw them lose convincingly to Seattle, Vancouver and Calgary.

Connor Ingram boasts the eighth-best GSAx this season and should be well-rested coming off a shutout of the Ducks last Friday. I was hoping to get +120 with the home underdog, and the moneyline is juicier than that.

Pick: Coyotes (+140)

Red Wings (-175) @ Sharks (+150)

You were warned that there'd be some uncomfortable plays on our ticket for the next few weeks, and the Sharks always qualify.

This bet, however, is more about the Red Wings, who probably don't warrant being a -175 road favorite against any NHL team. Detroit's allowed 13 goals in three games since the Christmas break and 18 in the four games going into the holiday, so we might get the version of the Sharks that couldn't stop scoring in early December.

A trio of Kings-Oilers-Avalanche out of the break was rough for San Jose, but their even-strength metrics in those three games aren't any worse than Detroit's:

TEAM	xG%	HDC%
Red Wings	43.9	41.1
Sharks	42.7	42.9

When the Sharks have played a mediocre-to-bad team at home (Penguins, Flyers, Blues, Canadiens, Capitals, Coyotes), they're 3-3.

All signs point to a 50-50 contest, and we're getting a 60-40 price.

Pick: Sharks (+150)

Wednesday cheat sheet

With just two games on the board, here are the moneylines to target if you're looking to bet on Wednesday's doubleheader.

GAME	WIN PROB. (%)	PRICE TO BET
NJD@WSH	51.2/48.8	NJD +105/WSH +115
TOR@ANA	57.6/42.4	TOR -130/ANA +160

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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