Key takeaways and analysis from Week 18 in the NFL

Sunday Rundown recaps the most important developments from the day's action and examines their significance moving forward.

Bills keep rolling Megan Briggs / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Is this finally the year in Buffalo?

It would have been tough to believe two months ago. A disastrous Monday night loss to the Broncos dropped the Bills to 5-5, and offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was scapegoated as a result. Frankly, it wasn't looking good.

But the second half of the season has been a completely different story. Heading into the playoffs, there may not be a hotter team league-wide.

The Bills secured a fourth consecutive division title with an emphatic victory over the Dolphins on Sunday night. That makes five straight wins to close out the regular season, and six wins in their last seven games. The only loss in that frame came courtesy of an overtime defeat in Philadelphia.

Joe Brady will get a lot of the credit for the turnaround - the Bills are 6-1 since the OC change - but the truth is that Buffalo's offense has been this dangerous throughout the season. The more likely explanation - albeit decidedly less juicy - is that it was only a matter of time before a team with this much talent took off.

Despite a slew of injuries, the Bills have managed to uphold a remarkable standard on the defensive side. Holding the Dolphins to 14 points and 275 yards - their second-lowest output of the season - is the statement of all statements on that front.

And we know the deal on offense by now. Josh Allen is nothing if not chaotic. But the risk for backbreaking plays also comes with the upside of plays that few in the history of this game could even dream of pulling off. When he's hot, he's hot. Putting up 400 total yards in a big spot in Miami could very well be the start of a special run in January.

Nobody wants to see the Bills right now.

An all-time collapse Justin Ford / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The Jaguars are not who we thought they were.

Fresh off an unexpected playoff run, Jacksonville entered this season widely expected to take the next step. Doug Pederson had successfully pulled the organization from the depths of Urban Meyer despair, and Trevor Lawrence was on the cusp of elite quarterback status. The arrow was seemingly pointed skyward.

There were certainly flashes of potential after an up-and-down start. And with an 8-3 record at the end of November, the Jaguars even entered the final month in possession of the AFC's No. 1 seed. The good vibes didn't last long, though.

Jacksonville went into free fall from that point forward, dropping four straight games to lose control of the division. A cupcake Week 17 matchup against the Panthers finally allowed the team to stop the bleeding, but the damage had been done. The Jaguars needed a win over the Titans to get into the playoffs, and even that was too much to ask.

Another mistake-filled game on both sides of the ball saw Jacksonville come up short in Tennessee, ending the team's season and handing the division to Houston.

Lawrence wasn't at his best down the stretch, but he's the least of the Jaguars' concerns. Putting your young quarterback in a position where he needs to drag a team to the playoffs while overcoming a bad defense, a porous offensive line, and, at times, questionable play-calling, is the more pressing matter.

As it turns out, this roster is nowhere near ready to contend. And with the Texans and Colts primed to take off, the Jaguars suddenly find themselves back in a position where they're chasing their AFC South rivals.

Things sure do change quickly in this league.

Lions get burnt NurPhoto / NurPhoto / Getty

You know what they say about playing with fire.

Lions head coach Dan Campbell decided that an unlikely chance to climb to the No. 2 seed - which required upset losses from both the Cowboys and Eagles - made it worth playing his starters in an otherwise meaningless regular-season finale. Unfortunately, the reckless move came with some consequences.

Detroit's offense took a massive hit when star tight end Sam LaPorta left with a knee injury late in the second quarter. Campbell said postgame that the injury wasn't as bad as it looked but admitted that "it's not good news." LaPorta is reportedly expected to miss time with a hyperextended knee and a bone bruise.

Any sort of absence heading into the postseason could be a crushing blow to a potent Lions scoring attack. While this group may well have enough playmakers to pick up the slack, at least in the early rounds, LaPorta is no regular rookie pass-catcher.

Prior to leaving Sunday's game, the Iowa product had reached 86 catches, breaking the all-time rookie record for a tight end. His first-quarter score also made him only the third first-year tight end to post double-digit touchdowns. Rookie or not, he's already one of the best at his position.

That's not the kind of player you can afford to lose heading into a wild-card matchup with Matthew Stafford and a high-powered Rams offense. The decision to go all-out in a meaningless Week 18 contest could have major ramifications for Detroit's first home playoff game since 1993.

Quick slants

Eagles are broken

Cooper Neill / Getty Images Sport / Getty

This team is officially painful to watch. Nobody has wanted to count them out, myself included, but it's time to look past the talent we see on paper. Sunday's blowout loss to the Giants was further confirmation that this is not the same club we saw make a run to the Super Bowl last season. The defense is the primary offender here, ranking 29th in EPA/play and 27th in success rate, according to Ben Baldwin's database. But the offense spends a lot of time stinking it up, too. Jalen Hurts had been struggling through his worst game of the season when Philly pulled its starters, completing seven of 16 passes for 55 yards and an interception. A road matchup with the 9-8 Bucs gives the Eagles a favorable first-round draw, but even that may prove to be a challenge with the way they're playing.

Texans only getting started

What a ride. The Texans winning the AFC South one season after drafting No. 2 overall is an incredible accomplishment. C.J. Stroud is already a top-10 quarterback, and DeMeco Ryans has immediately changed the culture in a previously terrible organization. The best part? This is only the beginning. No matter what happens in the postseason, which starts with a wild-card game against the Browns, the Texans have the makings of a perennial contender. A stellar rookie class would appear to suggest that this regime knows what it's doing in the scouting department, and there are only three teams with more projected salary cap space in 2024. Houston could be in for another major leap in the years ahead.

Winfield saves the day

Antoine Winfield not being included on the initial Pro Bowl roster was an inexcusable snub. And that was before he saved the Bucs' season this week against the Panthers. The Bucs' safety took an early touchdown off the board when he chased down DJ Chark and forced a fumble that Tampa Bay would recover in the end zone. The 9-0 final, which secured the NFC South for the Bucs, could have looked a lot different were it not for Winfield's heroics. The former second-round selection has emerged as one of the league's premier playmakers on the back end, and he'll be paid like it this offseason.

Brown's monster year

Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The Panthers' season was an absolute nightmare across the board. Derrick Brown is perhaps the lone exception. The star defensive tackle has quietly put together one of the most ridiculous campaigns we've ever seen from a player at his position. Brown posted another seven tackles in Sunday's loss to the Bucs to finish the year with 103, a new record for a defensive lineman. He somehow didn't end up on the NFC Pro Bowl roster, but his dominance up front is well-established. He's in line for a big-money extension heading into his fifth-year-option season.

GOAT division?

The entire football world seemed to have a pretty good idea that the AFC North was going to be a bloodbath this season. But who could have seen this coming? The Bengals knocking off the Browns on Sunday officially secured a winning record for all four teams. That marks the first time since 1935 that an entire division has finished a season above .500. Add in the fact that this year's AFC North is topped by the Super Bowl favorite Ravens, and there are few divisions in the history of the NFL that can compare.

Sweat dominates everywhere

Lost in the chaos of the final week of the regular season is one of the coolest records you'll ever see. Montez Sweat totalled 6.5 sacks across eight games with the Commanders prior to this year's trade deadline. After the Oct. 31 deal that sent him to Chicago, he recorded another six. The impressive consistency makes him the first player in NFL history to lead two different teams in sacks during the same season. The Bears earned plenty of criticism for giving up a second-round pick for an impending free-agent pass-rusher at the deadline. If this is the player they got, though, it'll be hard to call this move anything but a win.

Stat of the week

The Carolina Panthers finish the season 2-15. They did not call an offensive play while holding a fourth-quarter lead all season long.

- Jonathan Jones (@jjones9) January 7, 2024

Playoff Picture

The NFL playoffs are officially set. The Bills, Texans, Packers, Steelers, and Bucs each locked up postseason spots in the final week of regular-season action. Wild Card Weekend will feature several blockbuster games, including the Chiefs hosting the Dolphins and the Cowboys hosting the Packers. Check out the NFL Playoff Picture for first-round matchups and start times.

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