Wild Card Weekend: Best bets for Dolphins-Chiefs

For much of the season, it felt like Dolphins-Chiefs was the most likely AFC Championship Game matchup, but two teams with lofty expectations when they met in Germany in Week 9 are now looking for answers as injuries and ineffectiveness have put them in uncomfortable positions.

The Chiefs getting a home playoff game is nothing unusual, but the high probability of this being their only game at Arrowhead Stadium this postseason is. Meanwhile, the Dolphins went from the prospect of Hard Rock Stadium's warm confines to the diametric opposite of that: frigid conditions causing a considerable shift in the point spread.

Dolphins @ Chiefs (-4, 44.5)

TEAM	RATING	PROJECTED LINE
Dolphins	62/100
Chiefs	68/100	-1.5

After starting the season with an estimated market rating (EMR) in the high 50s and as the third choice in the AFC East, the Dolphins excited fans and bettors, shooting their EMR into the 70s - the level of a Super Bowl contender.

But injuries have struck. Miami lost edge rushers Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb and center Connor Williams for the season. Meanwhile, Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert missed the pivotal Week 18 game against the Bills, and Tyreek Hill continues to hop on and off the field intermittently. The Dolphins' rating fell to the low 60s as they closed as home underdogs last Sunday night.

Considering the grim injury report, a reputation for not being able to beat the league's top teams - especially away from home - and a potentially historically cold forecast, the market is selling the Dolphins in favor of a team that's underwhelmed constantly this season.

The Chiefs' offense has been maligned, as the receivers have been ineffective, and Travis Kelce - once a touchdown machine - has scored just once since that matchup in Germany. Given how cold it'll be in Kansas City on Saturday night, the line creeping up over a field goal indicates an expectation that the Dolphins will play to the bottom of their range while the Chiefs will play close to their mean.

Miami averaged 6.7 yards per play throughout the season, tied with the 49ers atop the league, but their YPP in the final three games fell to 5.8 against comparable defenses to the Chiefs' top-five unit in much better scoring conditions.

As strange as it sounds, the hurdle in backing Kansas City is the offense's ability to stretch a lead to comfortably cover a spread higher than it would've been at any point this season outside of maybe Week 1. Just imagine Kansas City's wideouts trying to catch passes in freezing weather. In conditions nowhere near like what they'll experience this weekend - including a 21-14 win over Miami in Germany - the Chiefs topped 23 points just six times this season.

Instead of backing Miami in a deep freeze or the Chiefs at an inflated number, we'll look to the total. After opening at 46.5, the over/under came down four points before seeing some buyback once it touched 42.5. Ideally, we'll see it back at the key number of 45 before betting the under.

Pick: Under (Wait and shop for 45, play down to 44 if not available)

Player props

Tua Tagovailoa: Under 239.5 passing yards

Our player props adhere to a game script where ball control and security are crucial. The Dolphins got away from running against the Bills, but their best chance at moving the ball down the field in 15 mph winds is to rely on the ground game. The Chiefs' run defense allowed 4.5 yards per carry.

With Mostert's availability clouding the market for Dolphins' rushers and the possibility for Tagovailoa relying on numerous short passes, the best way to bet on a methodical Miami offense is to fade Tagovailoa's yardage total, especially since he's topped 243 yards just twice in his last seven games.

Isiah Pacheco: Over 3.5 receptions

Pacheco has played in four games where pass-catching specialist Jerick Mckinnon was inactive. Pacheco caught a total of 19 passes in those four games, going over 3.5 receptions in three. With the short passing game the best way to limit risk, expect Pacheco to be a factor.

Patrick Mahomes: Longest rush under 12.5 yards

In the final six games of the regular season, Patrick Mahomes took off running 27 times with just one run of 13 yards. If you're thinking, "Well, it's the playoffs, so he'll use his legs more," I thought that too, only to find out that in his last three playoff games at Arrowhead, Mahomes ran the ball just three times in each game, with his longest rush being an 11-yard gain.

Mahomes scrambles when the defensive line creates pressure and the secondary is stretched deep. With the expected conditions, Vic Fangio shouldn't be afraid to get beat over the top, and the Dolphins won't get the same pressure they would've if their best rushers were healthy.

Anytime touchdowns

Raheem Mostert (+130)

We'll assume that the league leader in touchdowns will play, and even though we're expecting a lower-scoring game than the market projects, it's hard to pass on plus-money odds on Mostert, who scored 21 touchdowns in 15 games.

Justin Watson (+420)

We'll prefer size over quickness among Mahomes' options in the cold. Watson's scored three touchdowns in the final seven games, so he's one of few receivers that can be relied upon, and odds better than 4-1 are enticing for a big red-zone target.

Mega-longshot SGP

If you promise to play all your other bets as single bets this postseason, we'll go for ice cream, metaphorically speaking. The same game parlay is the high-calorie treat of sports betting, but for a couple of bucks, we'll take a shot with the following:

PARLAY+
Under 45.5 points
Raheem Mostert: Anytime TD
Justin Watson: Anytime TD
Tua Tagovailoa: Under 237.5 pass. yards
Patrick Mahomes: Under 28.5 rush. yards
Isiah Pacheco: Over 18.5 rec. yards
+13000

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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