Wild Card Weekend: Best bets for Steelers-Bills

We can pore over the rules and regulations and do all the math, but still: No one knows how the Steelers made the playoffs. While everyone assumed the Bills would get here before the season, things looked dicey for a long while. Buffalo somehow managed to secure the 2-seed, however, and while it will be typically brisk in Western New York on Sunday, the Bills get the first round's coziest matchup according to the betting line.

Steelers @ Bills (-10, 36.5)

TEAM	RATING	PROJECTED LINE
Steelers	37/100
Bills	72/100	-9.5

The Bills' five-game winning streak to end the season validated their high estimated market rating. However, they didn't cover either of their games when asked to win by a significant margin (at Chargers and vs. Patriots), and that's what's being asked of them again this Sunday, just like in the 2022 wild-card round against the Dolphins.

Even though the Steelers were projected for nine wins and surpassed that to finish 10-7, a rating of 37 is more befitting of a six- or seven-win team. Oh, and now they're without T.J. Watt - their most irreplaceable player, considering they're 1-10 in games he's missed. But how much further can the Steelers' rating get downgraded?

The Steelers go from allowing 19.8 points with Watt to 26.3 points without Watt, eerily in line with Pittsburgh allowing 19.1 points per game this season. Buffalo averaged 26 points per game. However, these teams didn't put up any of those numbers in 25 F (-4 C) weather with wind forecasted for 27 mph (43 km/h).

The Bills' overarching issue in recent years is that they're built like a dome team, but they play their home games outdoors in Buffalo in the winter:

DATE	OPPONENT	YPP	RESULT
Dec. 31 ('23)	vs. Patriots	4.1	27-21 win
Jan. 22 ('23)	vs. Bengals	5.2	27-10 loss
Jan. 15 ('23)	vs. Dolphins	5.9	34-31 win
Jan. 8 ('23)	vs. Patriots	5.6	35-23 win
Dec. 17 ('22)	vs. Dolphins	6.3	32-29 win
Dec. 11 ('22)	vs. Jets	4.3	20-12 win

The Bills found themselves in high-scoring games with the Dolphins last season, but otherwise, they've averaged 4.8 yards per play in late-season home games and are 1-5 against the spread in those games. The team total for the Bills is lined at 22.5, which seems like a fair expectation, so can the Steelers score more than their prescribed total of 12.5?

While backing Mason Rudolph on the road in a playoff game doesn't sound appealing, Pittsburgh went from 4.8 yards per play before he took over to 6.0 in the three games since he became the starter. The Steelers have also been more explosive - willing and able to find George Pickens or Diontae Johnson for long passing touchdowns - and Najee Harris has had three of his five best games of the season. Pittsburgh is still getting production from Jaylen Warren too.

In a low-total game where a big play might be the difference in covering the spread, the Steelers are just as likely to create that play on offense as the Bills. Even without Watt, Pittsburgh can take advantage of turnover-prone Buffalo to keep this game close.

Pick: Steelers (+10)

Player props

Mason Rudolph: Over 16.5 pass completions

Warren has caught 14 of 15 passes from Rudolph, and Harris added five more receptions in Week 18 as it rained in Baltimore. In poor conditions, Rudolph will take the easy throw. Lined as a two-possession game, we're expecting the Steelers to trail in the second half, which means they'll be forced to throw the ball to catch up.

Even if they're not trailing, the weather has depressed all the offensive totals here, so Rudolph just has to complete enough short passes to get over this number.

Najee Harris: Over 71.5 rushing + receiving yards

His five catches in Baltimore suggest it's worthwhile to include the option of his receiving yards. Harris has 78, 122 and 133 yards from scrimmage in Rudolph's three starts.

Josh Allen: Longest pass completion under 34.5 yards

Oddsmakers have to respect Allen's arm, but he hasn't had the most reliable connection with his receivers on deep passes this season. With everyone a little slower in the cold, short passes are less likely to get turned into big gains as they were in the Bills' recent plays to Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid.

Anytime touchdowns

Allen Robinson (+750, 0.6 unit)
Calvin Austin III (+1200, 0.4 unit)

Let's split a unit on receivers who could have plays run for them near the goal line to take advantage if the Bills' attention is elsewhere.

Austin is the Steelers' option on wide receiver end-around plays should Buffalo sell out to stop the middle run game. Meanwhile, Robinson is a sure-handed target who's played more snaps than Johnson in the last three games. Against the Bengals and Seahawks, Robinson caught all seven passes Rudolph threw his way after just 27 receptions on 41 targets over the first 14 games (less than two receptions per game).

Dawson Knox (+700)

Kincaid gets most of the action between the 20s, but as we saw with multiple end-zone targets and a score in Miami, Knox is the player Allen trusts near the goal line. At a nearly 50% snap share, it's not like Knox has become a mere specialist since returning from injury.

Mega-long-shot SGP

If you promise to play all your other bets as single bets this postseason, we'll go for ice cream, metaphorically speaking. The same-game parlay is the high-calorie treat of sports betting, but for a couple of bucks, we'll take a shot with the following:

PARLAY+
Steelers +17.5
Najee Harris: Over 50.5 rushyards
Jaylen Warren: Over 2.5 receptions
Allen Robinson: Over 0.5 receptions
Josh Allen: Under 34.5 long pass comp.
Dalton Kincaid: Over 29.5 rec. yards
Dawson Knox: Anytime touchdown
+13200

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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