NFL matchmaker: Predicting hires for open coaching jobs

The NFL coaching carousel is already off to the most chaotic of starts. Bill Belichick is out in New England, Pete Carroll is done in Seattle, and Jim Harbaugh is seemingly itching to get back in the league.

In total, one-quarter of the NFL is looking for a new head coach. Let's play matchmaker with the current openings, identifying possible candidates for all eight teams.

Chargers

Jim Harbaugh

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Notoriously hesitant to spend big money on their coaches, it isn't difficult to envision a scenario where the Chargers find themselves losing out on the top candidates. This isn't exactly an organization known for bold moves. But if ever there were a season that could finally push ownership to step up, it's probably the embarrassing final year of the Brandon Staley era. The Chargers desperately need to nail this hire, and Harbaugh should be their No. 1 target.

Harbaugh, now a national champion, has accomplished everything he set out to do at Michigan. With NFL interest seemingly at an all-time high and the threat of further NCAA sanctions looming, there would be no better time to make his return to the professional level. And in case you forgot about his four years in San Francisco, there should be no question about his ability to coach in the NFL. The Chargers job will come with some challenges, including a salary cap situation that's going to necessitate the departure of some key players. But the opportunity to team up with Justin Herbert and return to the West Coast should make this Harbaugh's top landing spot.

Falcons

Bill Belichick

The greatest coach in NFL history roaming the sidelines in a cutoff Falcons hoodie? Yeah, it's a little bizarre. But the idea of Belichick coaching any other team after 24 years in New England is going to require an adjustment period for all of us. Once we get past the weirdness of it all, it's easy to see how this could be a match.

Belichick is going to need a situation where he's given full control of the football operations, much like he had with the Patriots. The Falcons, fresh off a third straight 7-10 season, should have no hesitations about ceding such power to someone with this kind of resume. At some point, Arthur Blank has to take a big swing to drag this organization away from eternal mediocrity. He can offer Belichick a talented roster, full autonomy, all the money he wants, and the opportunity to coach in the NFC South. It wouldn't be long before he gets the 15 wins he needs to pass Don Shula for the all-time record, including playoffs.

The Falcons would be wise to get this thing done as soon as possible. They're the best fit for Belichick right now, but that could change as certain teams start bowing out of the playoffs. (More on that below)

Patriots

Mike Vrabel

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It was time for change in New England. That reality could, in theory, lead to Robert Kraft going off the board and embracing an entirely new approach throughout the organization. But does anyone really believe this hire isn't going to be someone who already has ties to the organization? The "Patriot Way" has been far too successful - in Foxboro, specifically - for ownership to abandon it completely.

Fortunately for Kraft, the Titans making the surprise decision to dump Vrabel presents him with a dream transition scenario. Vrabel played eight seasons in New England, winning three Super Bowls in the early stages of the Patriots dynasty. He was inducted into the team's Hall of Fame during his bye week this season, and his overwhelming praise for the organization reportedly wasn't well-received by Titans ownership. Most importantly of all, it just so happens that Vrabel is, at worst, one of the top 10 coaches in the game today. He's the perfect candidate to provide a new voice while also understanding everything that's long made this organization great. Vrabel would be a home-run hire.

Editor's note: The Patriots hired linebackers coach Jerod Mayo to succeed Belichick.

Seahawks

Mike Macdonald

Pete Carroll moving on was another shocker. He'd been one of the NFL's best coaches for the extent of his 14 years in Seattle, and the organization now has some pretty big shoes to fill in the coming weeks. Dan Quinn has already been reported as a possible front-runner, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Seahawks take that route, opting for a familiar face by hiring their former defensive coordinator. But it shouldn't be that simple.

This will be a desirable job with the potential to attract a number of qualified candidates around the league. While Quinn belongs in that conversation after continued success in Dallas, the ceiling seems significantly higher with an up-and-coming defensive mind like Macdonald. The Ravens coordinator has needed only two seasons to build the NFL's best defense since arriving from Michigan. And after statement performances against previously unstoppable offenses like that of the 49ers and Dolphins, his system may well be the future of the league. Macdonald and general manager John Schneider could be an extremely successful tandem.

Raiders

Antonio Pierce

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The Raiders are going to cast a wide net in their search for their next head coach. Mark Davis has expressed a desire to be open to any and all candidates after previously zeroing in on those he wanted from the jump. While his affinity for big names will lead to some intriguing possibilities, this is a process that should mostly be carried out in the name of due diligence. Pierce deserves the job.

A surprise midseason promotion after the firing of Josh McDaniels, Pierce took over as head coach with minimal expectations. The Raiders took on a completely new identity in his nine games, however, posting a 5-4 record that included a road win over the Chiefs and a 63-21 rout of the Chargers. The defense, most notably, was second only to the Browns in EPA/play allowed during Pierce's time as head coach, according to Ben Baldwin's database. While he may be short on experience, the locker room completely bought into his leadership style. Can Davis afford to make the same mistake as last time and look elsewhere when his players are so vocally in support of a beloved interim?

Commanders

Ben Johnson

Johnson is seen by many as the most promising young coaching candidate in football. He had earned that distinction by this time last year before turning away the Panthers' overtures and opting to stay in Detroit. The intrigue around his name has only intensified after another year at the controls of a high-powered Lions offense. While that may make you wonder why he'd choose the Commanders of all teams, it's a new day in Washington.

The stench of the Dan Snyder era is slowly but surely wearing off. New owner Josh Harris seems committed to reshaping the organization from the ground up, and we have every reason to believe he'll pay top dollar to get the right people in the building. That'll be an important factor with coaching contracts on the rise and Johnson reportedly seeking $15 million per year. The Commanders can also offer the ideal situation for a long-term rebuild. They've got the No. 2 pick in the draft, giving them the opportunity to select either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye as the quarterback of the future, and Washington heads into free agency with a projected $75 million in cap space, more than any other team, according to Over the Cap. This has become an especially interesting job, and Johnson should be the top candidate for a front office that appears poised to embrace analytics.

Panthers

Frank Smith

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The Panthers job is one of the few available that really isn't all that attractive. No. 1 pick Bryce Young is coming off a disastrous first season. While the disappointing start was likely more about the rest of the team than it was Carolina's young quarterback, that only drives home the point that this rebuild is going to be a grind. Making matters even more difficult: The 2-15 Panthers don't have the benefit of selecting No. 1 overall because the pick was traded to Chicago in last year's deal for Young. Add in the fact that working under David Tepper seems like the biggest drawback of all, and it could be tough for the Panthers to attract top candidates.

Carolina's best course of action might be to take a shot on a coach who's perhaps a year or two away from skyrocketing up the ranks. It's still one of 32 jobs, no matter the challenges, and the Panthers can offer the rare opportunity to accelerate a young coach's timeline. Smith, the Dolphins offensive coordinator, is a potential star in the making. He'll fly under the radar because Mike McDaniel handles play-calling duties in Miami, but Smith isn't merely along for the ride. Bringing a Dolphins-style RPO offense to Carolina could be a great way for the organization to set Young up for success. This move could prove genius before long.

Titans

Bobby Slowik

Nobody really understands what the Titans were thinking in moving on from Vrabel this offseason. At the very least, they should have been exploring opportunities to trade him for premium draft picks. Nevertheless, Tennessee is back in the market for a new head coach. This seems like another team that'll be hard-pressed to attract the biggest names, but there'll still be plenty of options.

Some may consider it to be too early for Slowik. Maybe it is. But Texans fans will be terrified of losing him as their offensive coordinator, and that should tell you everything you need to know. Slowik has done some remarkable work in overseeing the rookie development of C.J. Stroud and leading a top-12 offense in his first year in Houston. Another member of the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, Slowik also has familiarity with general manager Ran Carthon from his time in San Francisco. This could be a sensible pairing for all parties.

Playoff teams to watch

Cowboys

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Jerry Jones desperately wants another Super Bowl. This year is perhaps his best chance since Dallas' last one in 1995. Nothing should be considered off the table if Mike McCarthy once again fails to get the Cowboys past the first two rounds. An opening in Dallas would throw the coaching carousel for a loop, as this remains one of the premier jobs in football. Could an early playoff exit result in the Cowboys swooping in to steal Belichick from another team?

Eagles

This seems crazy. Irrational, even. But the Eagles have been a disaster over the second half of the season. Nick Sirianni's team getting so thoroughly outplayed and outcoached with this kind of roster is jarring. The departures of coordinators Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon proving this costly doesn't exactly reflect well on the head coach. Sirianni probably earned more patience than this - as he's one year removed from a Super Bowl appearance. But it isn't certain he's going to get it.

Chiefs

No, the Chiefs aren't going to fire Andy Reid. But this will continue to be a situation worth monitoring after the retirement talk that preceded last year's Super Bowl. Reid later denied those rumors and continues to say he isn't thinking about retiring. The future Hall of Famer walking away any time soon would immediately make the Chiefs job, and the opportunity to work with Patrick Mahomes, the most coveted position in the league.

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