Wild Card Weekend: Best bets for Rams-Lions

The return of both Matthew Stafford and the NFL playoffs to Motown caps Sunday's trio of matchups we didn't see in the regular season.

The Rams are a far cry from the Super Bowl LVI champion version of themselves, but they're still a popular pick for an upset. The relative ease in picking the former victors over a traditionally unlucky franchise might create some value on the home side.

Rams @ Lions (-3, 51.5)

TEAM	RATING	PROJECTED LINE
Rams	52/100
Lions	60/100	-4

Los Angeles had the third-lowest total in regular season win total markets last summer. But, even without a first-round pick, the Rams sustained their roster with late-round steals in the 2023 draft like Byron Young, Kobie Turner and, of course, Puka Nacua after finding Kyren Williams and key members of the secondary late in 2022.

Despite making the Lions bigger favorites at home against NFC teams that are comparable to the Rams like the Seahawks, Packers, and Vikings, the market's appetite for L.A. is high enough that +3.5 would be bet instantly if it became available.

The Lions are 35-16 against the spread under Dan Campbell, and even with high expectations this season as favorites in the NFC North, they still had the best record in that category at 12-5.

It's also the Lions' first home playoff game since 1993, and the Detroit crowd should be hyped on Sunday, loud whenever the Rams have the ball. Home-field advantage accounts for an average of 1.75 points within a given point spread. But you have to assume the Lions' boisterous fans will contribute more than a typical home crowd, giving the team an extra edge.

L.A.'s rating rose thanks to a 7-1 run down the final stretch, with the lone loss coming in overtime against Baltimore. However, those seven wins came against five non-playoff teams. The other two came against the Browns in Joe Flacco's first start and a Week 18 virtual exhibition contest with the 49ers.

After Week 14, the Rams were considered a 50/100, while the Lions were a 59/100. That would translate to a point spread of -4.5, and not enough has changed between Week 15 and now to warrant backing the Rams by this margin.

Pick: Lions (-3)

Player props

Kyren Williams: Under 82.5 rushing yards

The Lions quietly had one of the better run defenses this season, holding opponents to 3.7 yards per carry (third-best in the league). On the flip side, Detroit's third-worst against the pass, allowing 7.2 yards per attempt.

Kyren Williams has enjoyed a breakout campaign, clearing that rushing total in seven straight games in which he played. However, those contests often featured scenarios where the Rams looked to run the clock down to close out a win or against subpar run defenses. It's not that Williams can't be effective, but throwing should be a more efficient way to move the ball against Detroit.

David Montgomery: Under 67.5 rushing + receiving yards

Montgomery's rushing yards total is 55.5, so we might be getting an extra 12 yards of cushion with the bet's inclusion of his receiving yards. Since missing time in the middle of the season, Montgomery's only gained positive receiving yardage in three of nine games. He's only out-snapped Jahmyr Gibbs in two of those games, and Gibbs has 24 receptions to Montgomery's 10 in that stretch.

Anytime touchdowns

Cooper Kupp (+135)

Statistically, it was a down season for Cooper Kupp. But his production increased as his injury issues waned. Nacua may now be most dangerous between the 20s, but Kupp is still Stafford's favorite target when it's time to score. Kupp had a touchdown in four of his final five games, and the lone time he didn't, he uncharacteristically dropped two passes in the end zone. He'll have plenty of opportunity and, since it's a playoff game, Stafford will look to his reliable target.

Demarcus Robinson (+340)

Demarcus Robinson took over the third receiver role toward the end of the season. He was on the field for 86% or more of the Rams' snaps and scored a touchdown in four consecutive games before being kept out of the end zone against the Giants despite ten targets.

Jahmyr Gibbs (-110)

Gibbs has eight touchdowns in the last nine games, scoring in six separate outings (66% of the time or -150 implied win probability). Montgomery might still be the go-to back at the goal line, but Gibbs is good enough at finding the end zone - by ground or by air - that it might not come to a short-yardage scenario.

Brock Wright (+500)

Price is everything here. Sam LaPorta (ten touchdowns this season) seems unlikely to play, so Brock Wright will likely be the primary tight end at a position that accounted for 12 touchdowns in 2022-23. If LaPorta's out, Wright's odds to score shorten and become less appealing, so get something longer than +300 before that happens.

Mega-long-shot SGP

If you promise to play all your other bets as single bets this postseason, we'll go for ice cream, metaphorically speaking. The same-game parlay is the high-calorie treat of sports betting but, for a couple of bucks, we'll take a shot with the following:

PARLAY+
Lions -2.5
Over 48.5 points
Jahmyr Gibbs: Anytime TD
Cooper Kupp: Anytime TD
Matthew Stafford: Over 1.5 pass TD
Matthew Stafford: Over 39.5 longest pass
Jared Goff: Over 33.5 pass ATT
Kyren Williams: Under 80.5 rushyards
David Montgomery: Under 1.5 REC
+9100

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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