Maple Leafs' bounce-back spot vs. Oilers among 3 best bets
The irony isn't lost on this bettor that, after mentioning the Golden Knights were down to "just" Mark Stone and Jonathan Marchessault as healthy impact scorers on Monday, those two virtually beat the Predators by themselves. Stone scored a hat trick and Marchessault added the other goal in a 4-1 win as if they were spite-filled, avid readers of our semi-daily best bets.
As expected, the Wild were at full attention, steamrolling the Islanders 5-0. So it came down to what was indeed an even matchup between the Flyers and Blues, only for St. Louis to allow this goal:
What a goal by Owen Tippett! pic.twitter.com/s0bzfEsuCT
- Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) January 16, 2024
It would have been an epic piece of handicapping if we had steered clear of the Blues because we thought Justin Faulk would be vulnerable to such a move, but kudos to Owen Tippett for the finish on the game-winner.
The cheat sheetIf you're thinking about betting any game on the slate, here's a look at the price you should be hoping to get on the moneyline for a valuable bet.
| GAME | WIN PROB. (%) | PRICE TO BET |
|---|---|---|
| SEA@NYR | 38.7/61.3 | SEA +188/NYR -152 |
| ANA@WSH | 36.3/63.7 | ANA +209/WSH -168 |
| COL@OTT | 47.5/52.5 | COL +122/OTT +100 |
| NYI@WPG | 41.8/58.2 | NYI +165/WPG -134 |
| LAK@DAL | 45.4/54.6 | LAK +142/DAL -116 |
| SJS@CHI | 49.6/50.4 | SJS +112/CHI +109 |
| ARI@CGY | 40.0/60.0 | ARI +178/CGY -144 |
| TOR@EDM | 41.7/58.3 | TOR +165/EDM -134 |
The Kraken had one of the quietest nine-game-winning streaks in recent memory until it was snapped in Pittsburgh on Monday afternoon. The Penguins have been playing some of the best hockey in the league in the last month, with a 55% expected goals share at even strength. Seattle might have been rattled by Adam Larsson exiting after four minutes of ice time with the team already missing Vince Dunn, Andre Burakovsky, and Matty Beniers.
Ideally, someone from that day-to-day group could return versus New York, but the moneyline odds are stretching away from Seattle. Although we might see +200 by the time the puck drops, even +190 is a worthwhile play since the Kraken have always succeeded due to their depth. Meanwhile, the Rangers just snapped their losing streak, playing evenly against the Capitals without Alex Ovechkin for two games.
Chris Driedger looks to be getting the start for Seattle. His NHL comeback began with a bang when he stopped an outrageous 3.2 goals above expectation against the Flames in his first start since the end of the 2021-22 season. Catching goaltending lightning in a bottle with a big underdog is worth a try rather than relying on the Rangers' mediocre goaltending this season as a big favorite.
Pick: Kraken (+190)
Islanders (+155) @ Jets (-185)You should be able to get our target price of +165 or better on the Islanders with some patience and line shopping. New York might be next in line in the chain of screaming after getting blown out by the Wild after they got blown out by the Coyotes. Humiliation was enough to get Minnesota's attention, so the Islanders should handle their business after losing 5-0.
The Isles gave Ilya Sorokin a quick hook at 3-0 before the third period, presumably so their star goalie would be good to go in a bounce-back spot. The back-to-back element is mitigated by Monday's early start and the short trip to Winnipeg.
The Jets' winning streak - built off a soft stretch in their schedule - ended when they were shut out by the Flyers at home. The Isles can be even more frustrating defensively when they're focused.
Pick: Islanders (+155)
Maple Leafs (+130) @ Oilers (-150)If you're familiar with the work of the Maple Leafs in the last handful of seasons, you know this is the spot for Toronto. The Leafs coughed up a 3-0 lead on Saturday and then lost to the Red Wings on Sunday. Sorrow permeates the Big Smoke. So of course they'll bring their best effort against the highest-rated team in the NHL.
The Oilers' 10-game winning streak is attracting attention, but the Leafs represent a step up in weight class from this list of Edmonton's vanquished opponents since Christmas: the Sharks, Kings, Ducks, Flyers, Senators, Blackhawks, Red Wings, and Canadiens.
You can only beat the teams in front of you, and that's one sign the Oilers are more legitimate contenders than Toronto. But in a single game between two similarly talented teams, we'll take the underdog Leafs in one of their occasional "something to prove" spots.
Pick: Maple Leafs (+130)
Wednesday cheat sheetWith just three games on the board, here are the moneylines to target if you're looking to bet them on Wednesday.
| GAME | WIN PROB. (%) | PRICE TO BET |
|---|---|---|
| DET@FLA | 36.9/63.1 | DET +204/FLA -164 |
| MTL@NJD | 43.9/56.1 | MTL +151/NJD -123 |
| CHI@BUF | 35.7/64.3 | CHI +216/BUF -173 |
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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