Divisional round: Collins under, OBJ over among best bets for HOU-BAL

After a minor upset last Saturday afternoon, the Texans are back in the same time slot, and their reward for running away from the Browns in the second half is a trip to Baltimore to take on the well-rested No. 1 seed in the AFC. The disparity in team rating, a notable home-field advantage, and the fact the Ravens have had three weeks since their stars last played a meaningful game add up to Baltimore as a significant favorite.

Texans @ Ravens (-9.5, 43.5)

TEAM	RATING	PROJECTED LINE
Texans	44
Ravens	77	-9

The Texans haven't looked like a slightly below-average team recently, although that's what the market rated Houston when it made the club a home underdog versus a merely decent Browns squad. However, the Ravens wrecked the 49ers and Dolphins in their last two relevant regular-season contests. If our estimated market ratings are off, we should have moved Houston and Baltimore up in equal measure.

Either way, the point spread for this game is fair. Staying above -8.5 protects the sportsbook from bettors pulling the Ravens down under a field goal with 6-point teasers.

Concern for Baltimore might stem from past postseason failures - specifically those of Lamar Jackson, who owns the fifth-largest passer decrease from the regular season to the playoffs in NFL history.

Of course, a sample size of just three full playoff games (and none since he got hurt early in a 2020 divisional-round contest in Buffalo) doesn't mean Jackson will fall apart Saturday. He's got an offensive coordinator in Todd Monken calling plays to the tune of 7.9 yards per play this season - behind just the 49ers and Dolphins and tied with the Texans.

Houston's defense nabbed a pair of Joe Flacco pick-6s in the wild-card round, flashy plays that stemmed from the Texans getting a two-score lead against the Browns, who couldn't effectively run the ball. But the game was a back-and-forth affair until that point, with Houston struggling to slow Cleveland.

Now, the Texans go on the road to play outdoors in the cold. And their middle-of-the-road defense needs to slow a Ravens offense that ranked third in yards per carry on the ground, has a lethal option with Jackson's legs, and appears to be getting one of the league's top tight ends back in Mark Andrews.

C.J. Stroud getting over a touchdown seems like an attractive option, and we won't judge him or the Texans' offense based on Week 1 when they managed 3.7 yards per play in Baltimore. However, the Ravens' defense already faced Houston and recently shut down the 49ers' high-powered offense. Baltimore is prepared to do a far better job than what the Browns' fraudulent defense managed last week.

Pick: Ravens (-9.5)

Player props

Nico Collins: Under 79.5 receiving yards

Yep, we're going back to this well. Fading Nico Collins failed last week when the Browns showed early that they couldn't stop the Texans' lone outside threat. Of course, it later became clear that Cleveland didn't have a plan that could contain much of anything.

With the Texans playing outdoors against a defense that has all the time in the world to prepare multiple quality defensive backs (not to mention Collins' increased yardage total), it would be surprising to see Baltimore get beat deep and miss the tackles Cleveland did.

Devin Singletary: Under 15.5 rush attempts

Speaking of going back to the well, we'll do so with a winner from last week. As we previously cited, Devin Singletary only goes over his attempt number in wins, and luckily, he didn't do so in a blowout. We'll win this wager more traditionally when the Texans have to abandon the ground game after a fired-up Ravens front seven shuts down Houston's inefficient run game early.

Odell Beckham: Over 31.5 receiving yards

Zay Flowers is the toughest Ravens receiver to defend. Andrews is Jackson's favorite target (Andrews' player props aren't available since Baltimore hasn't officially ruled him in for the game). However, the Ravens signed Odell Beckham Jr. for big games. Whether it's a deep shot or more targets than usual for a player with modest production, look for a well-rested Beckham to have an impact despite only playing roughly half the offensive snaps.

Anytime touchdowns

Dalton Schultz (+315)
Brevin Jordan (+750)

Brevin Jordan's touchdown wasn't surprising, but how he scored was shocking - a long catch and run down the sideline. Jordan's on the field in most red-zone packages, enough to qualify him for a bet at odds longer than +500. Meanwhile, Dalton Schultz is a favorite target of Stroud and will be again if the Ravens focus on Collins.

Andrew Beck (shop for +2000, for a half-unit)

Andrew Beck scored against the Colts when a play was drawn up for him to be uncovered in the end zone. But a play designed for the Texans fullback went far worse last week when a shovel pass to him near the goal line was almost intercepted. However, at 20-1 odds, it's the thought that counts, and Houston thinks enough of Beck to run something for him near the goal line.

Gus Edwards (+135)

A touchdown price around even money is based on Gus Edwards scoring in nine of 17 games this season. However, that doesn't account for most of his 13 total touchdowns coming in eight different outings in the final 11 games. Plus, the bruising runner should be more effective in the cold, where, as we've seen for other controlled-climate teams, tackling is considerably more difficult.

Nelson Agholor (shop for +500 or longer)

Jackson's willing to throw to any number of receivers, with five Ravens having between three-to-six touchdown receptions this season. Nelson Agholor can be had in the market for as high as +550, while the other Raven regulars are at +260 or shorter.

Mega-long-shot SGP

We came close with a couple of our low-investment, high-yield, lottery tickets last week, and we'll use a theme to build a Same Game Parlay for the divisional round matchups.

"The Ravens blowout"

PARLAY+
Ravens -15.5
Gus Edwards: Anytime TD
Nelson Agholor: Anytime TD
C.J. Stroud: Over 32.5 pass att
Nico Collins: Under 90.5 rec yds
Gus Edwards: Over 41.5 rush yds
C.J. Stroud: Under 36.5-yard pass comp.
+13600

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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