NFL betting insights: Chiefs heavily backed to beat Bills
The NFL's divisional round is on deck with four exciting matchups, capped by another battle between the Chiefs and Bills as they take their rivalry to Buffalo for the first time in the playoffs.
The Bills are 3-point favorites and -150 on the moneyline as of Friday at theScore Bet, odds that suggest Buffalo has an implied win probability of 60%.
However, bettors appear to favor the Chiefs as +130 road underdogs in this spot and are backing them heavily on both the spread and moneyline.
As of Friday, at theScore Bet, the Chiefs have received 94% of the handle (money) on the +3 spread in both singles and parlays and 73% of the handle on the moneyline.
Those betting splits are by far the most one-sided of the four divisional matchups. Let's take a look at the betting numbers for all four games.
Texans @ Ravens (-9.5, -420 ML)| Split | Texans | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| ML Bets | 37% | 63% |
| ML Handle | 21% | 79% |
| Spread Bets | 60% | 40% |
| Spread Handle | 16% | 84% |
The Texans getting points is being supported by the number of bets, but 84% of the spread handle has ended up on the Ravens as big home favorites. This is an indicator that bigger bettors - not necessarily sharps or the public - like the Ravens to cover.
The matchup between C.J. Stroud and Lamar Jackson - the likely NFL OROY and MVP, respectively - is expected to be an exciting one. Stroud will play his first playoff game on the road after dismantling the Browns' defense last week. Interestingly enough, he has the same number of playoff passing touchdowns as Jackson does despite playing in three fewer games.
Packers @ 49ers (-9.5, -450 ML)| Split | Packers | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| ML Bets | 60% | 40% |
| ML Handle | 37% | 63% |
| Spread Bets | 53% | 47% |
| Spread Handle | 41% | 59% |
It looks as though the 9.5-point spread and -450 odds on the 49ers' moneyline are spot on, as the betting splits for this game are pretty even across the board.
It's expected to see a higher number of bets on the moneyline underdog, especially with the Packers at +360, which makes the Ravens' split from above a bit surprising. And it's expected to see a higher percentage of the handle on the big favorite, since you have to bet far more on -450 to have any sort of return.
Based on these numbers, you shouldn't see much line movement leading up to Saturday night's kickoff.
Buccaneers @ Lions (-6.5, -300 ML)| Split | Buccaneers | Lions |
|---|---|---|
| ML Bets | 34% | 66% |
| ML Handle | 23% | 77% |
| Spread Bets | 49% | 51% |
| Spread Handle | 83% | 17% |
There is a lot of love for the Lions at home as they host the Buccaneers, except for the percentage of handle.
The Lions opened at -6, and the line has moved a half-point in their favor despite receiving only 17% of the handle. Use this as a reminder that oddsmakers do not attempt to even out the book by moving the line to get buyback action on the other side.
Chiefs @ Bills (-2.5, -150 ML)| Split | Chiefs | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| ML Bets | 50% | 50% |
| ML Handle | 73% | 27% |
| Spread Bets | 53% | 47% |
| Spread Handle | 94% | 6% |
The Chiefs are getting plenty of support from bettors, garnering 73% of the moneyline handle and a whopping 94% of the spread handle. Whether this is a large number of big-money bets or a handful of bettors is unknown, but those types of betting splits are staggering.
The opening line of this game was Chiefs +3, so there's a chance a large percentage of the spread handle accumulated on that number before the line moved to +2.5. Either way, these numbers shouldn't sway a betting decision one way or the other.
The test for Patrick Mahomes & Co. is the fact that this will be their first playoff game away from Arrowhead that isn't the Super Bowl. This will be the third edition of Mahomes against Josh Allen, a rivalry in which the Chiefs won the first two games in shootout fashion.
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