Divisional round: Freed-up Lions a valuable bet vs. Buccaneers

Sunday's games provide more of a level playing field, as we don't have to deal with the rest-versus-rust debate.

It wasn't a high-profile game when the Buccaneers and Lions met in Tampa Bay in Week 6. There was no way of knowing the Bucs would be division winners, and Detroit was still trying to convince everyone that this edition was unlike any Lions team we can remember. This time around, the Lions are 6.5-point favorites in the divisional round of the playoffs. What a world.

Buccaneers @ Lions (-6.5, 48.5)

TEAM	RATING	PROJECTED LINE
Buccaneers	43
Lions	60	-6

During the Buccaneers' second-half win over the disinterested Eagles, the Lions opened at -5.5. That was bet up to -6, and the market didn't stop there, going to -6.5 and occasionally threatening -7.

The reason bettors like Detroit, at what may feel like a big point spread, is because just about everything sets up worse for Tampa Bay going into Ford Field than it did last week.

• From home to road
• From extra rest for a sore Baker Mayfield to a short week with travel
• From dispassionate Eagles to revved-up Lions
• From the 20th-best run defense to third-best
• From a run-centric QB who didn't run to a top-five pass offense

Since the fundamental crux of betting on games is to predict who will play better or worse than their average performance, it's hard to ignore these points and back the Bucs, even if the line moves to +7.

From a narrative standpoint, the Lions winning their first playoff game since 1991 may have removed some of the pressure. While the building was hyped, there was a feeling of impending doom belying that excitement. Multiple generations of futility aren't on the line this week. The Lions struggled to maintain their intensity in the second half against the Rams, almost resulting in the extension of their streak, but this was caused by leaving too much on the field in an exhilarating first-half environment.

With a more measured approach, the Lions will play a full 60 minutes, swarm Mayfield, and win more comfortably than last Sunday.

Pick: Lions (-6.5)

Player props

Chris Godwin: Under 63.5 receiving yards

David Moore, Trey Palmer, and even Deven Thompkins cut into the wide receiver snaps, and Cade Otton had 11 targets against the Eagles, which devalues Chris Godwin's role in the Bucs' offense. The veteran receiver hauled in a 23-yard touchdown on a fourth down against an all-out blitz, but that's outside the realm of the game plan. With Godwin (questionable but likely to play) banged up this late in the season, he's more of a possession receiver than an explosive one.

Rachaad White: Under 15.5 rush attempts

In taking the Lions to cover, we think they'll get out to an early lead and hold it. Detroit has made a concerted effort to stop the run while hoping for the best in defending the pass. Assuming the Bucs are aware of this, they, like the Rams last week, will realize their most efficient offensive opportunity is to pass. Rachaad White's rush attempts are 7-1 to the under in games Tampa's lost this season.

Jameson Williams: Over 18.5 longest pass completion

The Buccaneers allow 6.9 yards per opponent's pass attempt, and, as we saw with DeVonta Smith beating them repeatedly for long completions on Monday night, they're vulnerable to speed. That's Jameson Williams' game. He had his first long catch - a 45-yard touchdown - in his second game of the season in Tampa Bay.

Anytime touchdowns

Sam LaPorta (+155)

Concern about Sam LaPorta's knee proved relatively unfounded last week, as he played 80% of the Lions' offensive snaps. Though his usage was down (three receptions for 16 yards), he scored his 11th touchdown of the season. The Bucs give up the third-most receptions and fourth-most yards to opposing tight ends, so one of Jared Goff's best options in the red zone, after another week to heal, should get his usual end zone targets.

Josh Reynolds (+275)

The Lions have many options in the red zone but should throw more than usual if the Buccaneers' stout run defense holds up. That makes all receivers more valuable, and with Amon-Ra St. Brown (+110) likely getting the focus of coverage, Josh Reynolds could get an open look from Goff.

Mike Evans (+120)

The usual Mike Evans early drop wasn't a back-breaker against the Eagles, even if touchdown bettors were disappointed. With the Bucs likely to shelve the run game, Evans - tied for first in receiving touchdowns this season - is still a good bet to score at better-than-even odds.

David Moore (+700)

Having joined the Bucs midway through the season, Moore played his highest percentage of snaps this season in the wild-card round, indicating that Tampa is getting a better idea of what it has in the veteran receiver, who boasts playoff experience from his days in Seattle. If the way to attack the Lions' defense is through the air, Moore's 7-to-1 odds are a deal compared to Godwin's, Cade Otton's depressed odds, and other lightly used options.

Mega-long-shot SGP

We came close with a couple of our low-investment, high-yield, lottery tickets last week, and we'll use a theme to build a Same Game Parlay for the divisional round matchups.

"Motown vibes"

PARLAY+
Lions moneyline
Sam LaPorta: Anytime TD
Josh Reynolds: Anytime TD
Chris Godwin: Under 74.5 rec. yds
Cade Otton: Over 3.5 rec
Jared Goff: Over 22.5 pass comp.
Jahmyr Gibbs: Under 12.5 rush att.
+10600

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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