Divisional round: 7 bets for Bills' best chance to overcome Chiefs

The Bills get what they've long wanted during their rivalry with the Chiefs - a chance to host at Orchard Park. With Patrick Mahomes away from Arrowhead Stadium and the Bills favored, Buffalo is running low on excuses for why they can't get over the hump.

Chiefs @ Bills (-3, 45.5)

TEAM	RATING	PROJECTED LINE
Chiefs	70
Bills	72	-2.5 (-115)

The betting market for the side in this game is pretty simple - you have to pay for the side you want. There likely won't be a flat -110/-110 pricing for the side at Bills -2.5 or -3, so you can pick your poison, betting either the Bills -2.5 at -120 or the Chiefs +3 at -120.

This game requires some patience, but if flat pricing never comes, I'll be betting on the Chiefs at +3. The market's moved the Bills up to contender level, increasing excitement for anyone willing to take the Bills' futures as a long shot.

There hasn't been that same enthusiasm for the Chiefs because the bumbling teams of the AFC West never threatened Kansas City's status, but the hand-wringing about the team not getting a bye means there was never an attractive buy point.

Just because the Chiefs haven't played a true road playoff game with Mahomes doesn't mean they can't excel in one. And be assured, the market's accounted for the road trip.

The Chiefs don't have the same explosive offense that was once their calling card. However, they're built better for unfamiliar conditions.

Trading Tyreek Hill two offseasons ago was done to open up cap space and augment the defense. Only the Jets and Ravens allowed fewer yards per play than the Chiefs this season.

Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has done more with less talent in past postseasons, and Josh Allen can be vulnerable to turnovers. Surprise rushers and unforeseen coverages lead to turnovers, and Spagnuolo is one of a handful of coordinators reliable enough to create those challenges for Allen.

Travis Kelce is starting to feel his age and has drifted into a negative spotlight as the receivers struggle to catch the ball. Kelce and Rashee Rice had two-thirds of the targets and receptions against Miami. What if the supporting cast catches the ball on Sunday? It sounds simple enough, and, with injuries piling up in the Bills' secondary, those receivers will have more time and space than usual.

Lastly, neither team is good at stopping the run, but the Chiefs are more willing to commit to it with hard-running Isiah Pacheco.

The Chiefs have the experience and are built to win at this time of year.

Pick: Chiefs (+3, -120 or better)

Player props

Josh Allen: Over 227.5 passing yards

Backing the Chiefs doesn't rule out the Bills winning the game. Rather, it plays on the idea of a close game. The three prevailing potential game states - Bills' big lead, close game, or Chiefs' big lead - can all involve a high-volume passing day for Allen.

Isiah Pacheco: Over 61.5 rushing yards

Pacheco missed the regular-season matchup against the Bills, so the Chiefs attempted to take advantage of a suspect Buffalo run defense with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who averaged 3.36 yards per carry in the three games where he carried the ball more than a few times. At 4.6 yards per carry this season, Pacheco should be able to clear this total with 12-15 carries. He got 24 last Saturday and will likely see at least half of that this time around.

James Cook: Longest reception over 10.5 yards

Cook's getting opportunities. He caught seven of eight balls - four targets last week and four in Miami - with the lone drop coming on a long prospective touchdown against the Dolphins. He also got loose for a long reception in Kansas City earlier this season as part of a stretch where he went over this number four weeks in a row.

Last season, the Bills' starting tailback at this time, Devin Singletary, had five targets. He was never known for being a successful receiver out of the backfield. Throwing to the tailback has long been a Bills strategy against Spagnuolo's Chiefs, as they threw extensively to their runners in both recent playoff losses.

Anytime touchdowns

Travis Kelce (+130)

Enough is enough. We'll call our shot and say that Kelce scores. Being uncomfortable with that take is unheard of, but that concern is finally reflected in the betting market:

GAME (Date)	TD ODDS
MIA (1/13)	+125
CIN (12/31)	-130
LV (12/25)	+100
NE (12/17)	+100
BUF (12/10)	-130
GB (12/3)	-115
@LV (11/27)	-145
PHI (11/20)	-115
MIA (11/5)	-135

These are the longest odds Kelce's had to score in years, but with 10 targets last week, it's not like he isn't being used.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+550)

Edwards-Helaire might not be an efficient runner, but he still plays up to 40% of the snaps and shows up in personnel packages near the goal line, playing a role previously reserved for Jerick McKinnon, who had five touchdowns this season. When looking for reliable options for designed plays in the red zone, CEH might be one of the few players Andy Reid will trust.

Dalton Kincaid (+275)

The touchdown odds for Bills tight ends have tightened up since Dawson Knox (+450) scored for us on Monday as a 7-to-1 long shot, so we'll go with Dalton Kincaid, who scored on his six targets last week and had eight looks in Kansas City earlier this season.

Mega-long-shot SGP

We came close with a couple of our low-investment, high-yield, lottery tickets last week, and we'll use a theme to build a Same Game Parlay for the divisional round matchups.

"Chiefs as road warriors"

PARLAY+
Chiefs moneyline
Travis Kelce: Anytime TD
Dalton Kincaid: Anytime TD
Isiah Pacheco: Over 51.5 rush yds
Josh Allen: Over 227.5 pass yds
James Cook: Over 26.5 rec yds
Josh Allen: 0.5 INT
+10400

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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