Will Matthews stay hot at home? Leafs sniper highlights best bets

Tuesday was a great night on the ice as we swept the board with all three of our player props.

We'll try to replicate that performance with a few more plays for an abnormally juicy Wednesday card.

Auston Matthews: Over 4.5 shots

Death, taxes, and Matthews overs at home. His hit rate for shots is 17% higher when playing in Toronto as opposed to on the road.

While the Jets have not been a good team to target for shots this season, the screws appear to be loosening defensively. They have conceded an average of 32.25 shots on goal over the last four games, giving up 35 or more in three of them. The one exception came last time out against the Bruins.

The Jets fell behind early in that game, and the Bruins were happy to sit on their lead, squeezing a team that was missing a couple of its best weapons in Mark Scheifele and Gabe Vilardi.

The Leafs tend to fight fire with fire, matching the Matthews line against the opposing team's top unit. That means he'll see plenty of the line currently centered by Adam Lowry, a useful player but one who is in far over his head on a first line.

The numbers for that unit are down significantly without Scheifele, and I expect that to continue with plenty of ice time against the league's best scorer.

Look for the Matthews line to spend a lot of time on the attack in this game, which should naturally lead to plenty of shot volume.

Odds: +110 (playable to -125)

Ross Colton: Under 2.5 shots

Colton is registering three shots or more in only 31% of his games this season and has gone over his total in 14 of 45 appearances. He's averaging 1.9 shots on four attempts per game, which means there isn't much wiggle room for blocked shots or missing the target if he's going to go over.

His volume is up slightly over the last 10 games (4.4 attempts per), but that includes an 11-attempt outburst against the Canadiens. Not only are the Habs susceptible to giving up shots, but they take a ton of penalties, and Colton found himself on the top power play due to the absences of Artturi Lehkonen and Valeri Nichushkin.

The expectation is that Lehkonen will return to the lineup tonight and bump Colton off the top unit. That lowers his ceiling. So does playing on a line with an extreme shoot-first player like Miles Wood, who often puts the puck on net the moment it comes his way.

Given Colton no longer has top power-play responsibilities and plays with a shot hog at even strength, I have a hard time seeing him generate much shot volume against a very low-event Capitals team.

Odds: -145 (playable to -160)

Jared McCann: Over 2.5 shots

This is a really nice spot for McCann. The Blackhawks are one of the worst five-on-five teams in the league and spend a ton of time on their heels absorbing pressure, which is probably why McCann has managed to go over his shot total in six of the past eight against Chicago.

What I also like about McCann here is the surrounding circumstances. Matty Beniers is sidelined with an injury while Yanni Gourde has a game remaining on his suspension. A healthy bite has been taken out of the Kraken lineup so more will fall on the plate of McCann offensively.

McCann hasn't had his best season but still leads the Kraken in goals by six. Due to absences around him, McCann finds himself as the top-line center at even strength and a focal point on the No. 1 power play.

Look for McCann to take advantage of an uptick in usage against one of the NHL's bottom-feeders.

Odds: -134 (playable to -150)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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