AFC championship betting: Is it crazy to fade Mahomes getting points?

If you've been following our content since the preseason, there's a good chance you're holding a Ravens ticket to win the AFC.

Having a +900 ticket bet on something now priced (-170) to happen 63% of the time is a good position for Sunday. The Ravens are significant favorites over the Chiefs in the conference title game by earning home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. If you are still a believer in the Ravens, your job is done.

But if you're feeling frisky, you can take the points with Kansas City +3.5 and try to win both. Or, if you love the Chiefs at +3.5 (or potentially +4) and believe they're live to win, you can also take your equity (the payout) on Baltimore and put it all on Kansas City to create a potential windfall. You have options:

If you missed the Ravens at +900 to win the AFC, we still have you covered. Let's dive into handicapping what should be a memorable clash.

We've projected this line closer to Ravens -4, and the betting market (for now) has decided that -3.5 is a better number than -3. This may come as a mild surprise, given the excitement surrounding the rare instances when Patrick Mahomes is an underdog, especially at more than a field goal, which could creep higher.

Why does the market like the Ravens? Let us count the ways.

At halftime in Buffalo, Tony Romo openly worried about the Chiefs' run defense as they were getting consistently pushed around by the Bills. KC's star defensive lineman, Chris Jones, lamented, "Gotta stop this run," mere seconds after the Chiefs beat the Bills.

While Josh Allen provides power-running danger, Lamar Jackson's explosiveness is a threat every snap. Only two teams gave up more rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks than KC this season, and neither Allen, Trevor Lawrence, Russell Wilson, Jalen Hurts, nor Justin Fields are as deadly as Jackson, nor do they open so many holes for tailbacks.

The Chiefs' defensive tactics may be less effective against an opponent capable of scrambling for 107 yards on 16 carries, as Jackson did against the Chiefs in 2021, or one able to produce 11 rushes for 100, as he did last Saturday. The Chiefs' defense may be without three starters (Willie Gay, Mike Edwards, and Derrick Nnadi) and is a group that played 77 snaps in Buffalo. Meanwhile, the Ravens are getting healthier with the return of Mark Andrews (and potentially Marlon Humphrey on defense) with an extra day of rest.

We backed the Chiefs last week partly because questions surrounding their offense could be answered with simple ball security. Marquez Valdes-Scantling made uncharacteristic contested catches, while play calls for Mecole Hardman resulted in characteristic disasters. Neither can be relied upon against the Ravens' defense, which is much better than the battered Bills unit that had to play third-string linebacker A.J. Klein.

With Buffalo vulnerable at the second level, Travis Kelce turned back the clock and Isiah Pacheco kicked aside tackles for extra yards. Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen won't be so malleable, especially if the Chiefs are missing Pro Bowl guard Joe Thuney, as expected.

The Texans, a top-three offense by yards per play, looked efficient under C.J. Stroud until they went to Baltimore last week and didn't have a snap in the red zone, scoring three points total. The Chiefs' back-to-basics approach worked against the Bills - whose decision-making let KC off the hook. Andy Reid will look across the field Sunday and see a top head coach, John Harbaugh, making decisions to maximize his team's chances of winning.

The Ravens trailed in the fourth quarter in just two games all season for a total of 3 minutes and 42 seconds. Mahomes' magic might continue, but faith in Baltimore to get a lead and hold it is warranted.

Pick: Ravens (-3.5)

An extensive list of prop bets for the AFC championship can be found here.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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