NFL betting insights: Feisty Lions getting backed to upset 49ers
Everyone loves an underdog, and bettors are no different.
The Lions are getting plenty of support in the betting market to upset the 49ers in Sunday's NFC Championship Game, according to data from theScore Bet.
As of midday Friday, 74% of the moneyline handle (money wagered) is on Detroit, who are +270 (bet $100, win $270) underdogs. And 75% of the spread handle is backing the Lions, who are now +7.
Let's dive deeper into the betting splits for both conference championship contests.
Lions @ 49ers (-7, -340 ML)| Split | Lions | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| ML Bets | 66% | 34% |
| ML Handle | 74% | 26% |
| Spread Bets | 75% | 25% |
| Spread Handle | 75% | 25% |
The spread for the NFC Championship Game has bounced between 49ers -6.5 to -7.5 at several different prices since opening at -7. It's impossible to know the odds and spread the majority of the Lions liability came in on, but sharp bettors who looked to make a bet on Jared Goff and Co. likely did so when the line moved to +7.5 to ensure a converted-touchdown loss for Detroit would still cash their bet.
Conversely, sharp bettors who wanted to back the 49ers likely did anytime the line moved to -6.5.
The result is a -7 line that'll probably stick until kickoff. Sportsbooks will adjust the odds on the -7 accordingly over the next couple of days but don't expect this spread to move off a key number unless there's significant injury news.
Chiefs @ Ravens (-4, -210 ML)| Split | Chiefs | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| ML Bets | 62% | 38% |
| ML Handle | 54% | 46% |
| Spread Bets | 53% | 47% |
| Spread Handle | 47% | 53% |
The betting splits in the Chiefs-Ravens game are much more balanced in a matchup that should, based on the odds, be closer on the field.
The Ravens opened at -3, but that key number was quickly bet off to -3.5 and moved even further to -4.
The percentages above would indicate that a move this significant isn't warranted. However, somewhere in the betting market, a group of respected bettors has moved this line into a position where Patrick Mahomes is getting four points in a playoff game. That may seem like a big number to the casual fan, especially after recently watching the Chiefs quarterback beat the Bills as a three-point underdog in Buffalo.
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