Hughes' return should propel Devils past Flames on Thursday

We had an underwhelming 1-2 Wednesday, splitting our props while the Lightning couldn't grind out a win against Jonathan Quick and the Rangers.

Let's look at a couple of plays for Thursday's card as we try to get back in the win column.

The Flames picked up an impressive win over the Bruins last time out and have won six of 10, but I'm not sold on their process. They've controlled just 45% of the expected goal share at five-on-five over the past 10 games.

Calgary isn't good at full strength. And without Elias Lindholm, who led the team in power-play points, the Flames can't be relied upon to produce consistently on the man advantage.

I think the Devils are a much better club. Jack Hughes, one of the NHL's top point producers, is expected to return Thursday. With Hughes in the lineup, New Jersey is extremely dangerous at five-on-five and on the power play.

The Devils are also as healthy as they've been in some time. While key contributors like Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler remain sidelined, most of the team's top weapons are back.

Thursday's lineup will include Hughes, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, Timo Meier, and Tyler Toffoli. New Jersey has rarely had all five of those guys available at the same time.

I think the Devils underachieving to date has a lot more to do with a constant wave of key injuries than a lack of talent or underlying concerns.

This is a good spot for them to get right against a mediocre Flames team starting to look toward the future and move on from key players.

Bet: Devils (-145)

How I attack this game depends greatly on what the Golden Knights do in goal. Either way, it's one I see value in getting involved with.

If Vegas goes back to Adin Hill - rather than continuing to rotate, as it's done in recent weeks - then the under of 5.5 (+100) is a play I see value in.

Hill owns a sparkling .938 save percentage through 18 games this season and has been as good as anybody on a per-start basis.

Coyotes starter Connor Ingram has posted an impressive .916 save percentage and is in fine form heading into this contest. He has more than six goals saved above expectation since the calendar flipped and sits fifth in the category for the year.

Headlined by Jack Eichel, the Golden Knights are missing several players with injury. That's taken a bite out of their five-on-five numbers and ability to score goals.

That's why backing the Coyotes is the way to go if Hill doesn't start. Logan Thompson's numbers don't hold a candle to Hill's on the season.

Considering it's vulnerable at even strength and has lost the expected goals battle in four of the last five games, Vegas needs excellent goaltending.

I'm less confident Thompson can provide the Golden Knights with that. In short, I like the Coyotes at +115 if Thompson starts and the under of 5.5 at +100 if Bruce Cassidy goes back to Hill.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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