Super Bowl betting insights: QBs driving 1-sided player prop action
One-sided action is a term you'll often hear in the sports-betting world. It can sometimes occur during the NFL regular season when there's an extremely popular player or team playing in a prime-time setting.
But it happens often during the Super Bowl - the most bet-on sporting event in North America - since there are so many people placing wagers. In scenarios like this, sportsbooks often allow lopsided exposure to build up on one side of a player prop and trust that their models are correct.
And this year is no different, with quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy driving lopsided action at both theScore Bet and ESPN Bet, two sportsbooks run by PENN Entertainment.
Mahomes is making his fourth Super Bowl appearance and is on the brink of winning the big game for the second consecutive year. Bettors appear to have more faith in Mahomes under the bright lights of Allegiant Stadium than any other player in the game.
So far, 97.9% of the handle (money wagered) and 97.6% of the bets are on the over for Mahomes' passing touchdown total. These splits are spread across his over 0.5 (-1000) and 1.5 (-150) passing touchdown totals.
A whopping 10% of all bettors who've placed a bet on the Super Bowl have included Mahomes over 1.5 passing touchdowns to their portfolio in either a straight bet or a parlay. The over for his passing touchdown total accounts for 4.4% of all player prop handle and 5.4% of all player prop bets.
Mahomes passed for two or more touchdowns in 10 of the 19 games played this season, which is 52.6% of the time. His current odds of -150 imply a win probability of 60%, so bettors are banking he'll outperform his season average on Sunday.
Mahomes has recorded two or more passing touchdowns in two of his three Super Bowl appearances. He threw for at least one passing touchdown in every game this season except a late October matchup versus the Broncos.
Meanwhile, Purdy is garnering plenty of one-sided action for a completely different reason than Mahomes.
So far, 99.7% of all handle and 99.1% of all bets placed on Purdy's interception total have been on the over. His current props are over 0.5 (-125) and over 1.5 (+400).
The Chiefs field arguably the best defense in the NFL, and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has already done an incredible job limiting the high-powered offenses of the Dolphins, Bills, and Ravens this postseason.
Purdy threw an interception in seven of 18 games this season, with one of those coming against the Lions in the NFC Championship Game. The other games he threw interceptions were against the Ravens (four), Bengals, Vikings, Browns, and both matchups against the Seahawks. Aside from Cincinnati, those are all above-average defenses, which the Chiefs certainly have.
Of the non-quarterbacks, Travis Kelce and Deebo Samuel are creating one-sided action.
The over on Kelce's reception total has attracted 86% of the handle and 96.2% of the bets on the market. His most balanced line at the moment is 6.5 receptions, with the over having odds of -155. Kelce hauled in 11 balls in the AFC Championship Game but only recorded seven or more receptions in six of 17 games leading up to his explosion against the Ravens. He has six or more catches in all three of his Super Bowl appearances.
The love for Samuel isn't coming in the passing game, as his carries total is being heavily backed, with 99.6% of the handle and 99.7% of the bets on the over for Samuel's rushing prop of 2.5 carries. Bettors clearly expect Kyle Shanahan to get the ball into Samuel's hands in different ways. The dynamic wideout had three carries in the NFC Championship Game and recorded three or more rushing attempts in eight of 17 games played this season.
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