Super Bowl LVIII betting: Deep dive into prop markets
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We've covered Super Bowl LVIII from head to toe with prop bets on all sides of the ball - passing, receiving, rushing, defense/special teams - as well as who'll score and what'll happen first. All that remains to close Super Bowl week is to dig deep into what's left to bet.
Highest-scoring half: 1st half (-110 or better)We'll go back to something that cashed with ease for us in the AFC championship - a bet made based on the Chiefs' disparity between their first-half (sixth this season) and second-half scoring (27th).
Each week, Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan put their mastery of Xs and Os on display in the opening offensive game script, usually 15 plays. The Chiefs' first drives this postseason have resulted in a touchdown, field goal, and touchdown on the way to first-half totals of 16, 13, and 17 points.
Meanwhile, the 49ers scoring just seven first-half points in each of their two playoff games went against their habit of racking up points early, as they scored the fourth-most first-half points during the regular season (and slightly more than K.C.).
49ers win 3rd quarter by shutout: Yes (+260)If you want to get a little spicier, using the handicap of the Chiefs' second-half scoring struggles (while avoiding Patrick Mahomes' aptitude in the fourth quarter), we'll take some odds on the 49ers to shut out the Chiefs in the third quarter.
The 49ers' offense has shown it can adjust and settle into a rhythm after halftime in its first two playoff games, and all San Francisco needs is a field goal to hold up its end of the bargain here.
Team to score longest touchdown: 49ers (-135)Here's the tale of the tape for the big playmakers in Super Bowl LVIII:
| POSITION | PLAYER | 30+ YARD PLAYS |
|---|---|---|
| Running back | Isiah Pacheco | 3 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 8 | |
| Tight end | Travis Kelce | 2 |
| George Kittle | 8 | |
| Wide receiver | Rashee Rice | 5 |
| MarquezValdes-Scantling | 5 | |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 8 | |
| Deebo Samuel | 5 |
Of the players with the ball in their hands the most, the 49ers have 29 explosive plays to the Chiefs' 15. That's 66% of the big plays on San Francisco's side. If translated to a moneyline, that would be -200. So, while the 49ers are correctly favored, -135 is still a little short.
Kansas City has more supporting characters with long gains, but not enough to expect them to score a long touchdown on Sunday. A defensive touchdown could end up as the longest TD scored, but each team is just as likely to find the end zone that way.
Largest lead of the game: Under 14.5 (-125)Big leads in the NFL happen all the time, as evidenced by the Lions taking a 17-point lead on the 49ers in the NFC title game, and it doesn't mean the game won't be close or entertaining. However, despite having either a historically efficient offense (49ers) or having Mahomes, two conservative coaches should lead to a game where decisions are made to keep things close. The game being lined as close to a pick'em as possible and a game total (47.5) that isn't egregiously high also makes it less likely anyone gets up three scores.
Will there be overtime?: Yes (+1100)Is overtime due? We'll close Super Bowl week with a bet based less on an edge in probability and more on tacking on a small bet for something fun to happen. Though, at +1100, theScore Bet has the best price in the market for the game going to overtime, so there's an implied edge compared to other sportsbooks.
Two offseasons ago, the NFL changed the playoff overtime rules to give both teams a chance to have the ball. Last year, four playoff games were lined at a field goal or shorter, and three more this postseason. None of them went to overtime.
Last year, the Chiefs just avoided overtime in two closely-lined games with late game-winning field goals, including in Super Bowl LVII. Brock Purdy's arm injury derailed one of the four tightly-lined matchups last year, and the Jaguars beat the Chargers by one point in another.
This year's other short-spread games saw the Texans blowout the Browns, the Lions edge the Rams by one, and the Chiefs and Bills seem destined for overtime until Buffalo botched its last drive.
That's six of seven games that were expected to be close and played out that way. Three of those included the Chiefs. Circumstances led to overtime being avoided, but with such narrow margins, there's reason to believe there's better than a 10% chance of overtime between evenly matched playoff teams.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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