Can Couturier continue home-ice shot production? 3 props for Tuesday

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We swept the board with our player props Monday night, cashing a pair of overs and a fade of John Carlson.

We'll look to keep the ball rolling with three more shot props for Tuesday's massive slate of games.

Sean Couturier: Over 2.5 shots

The Flyers have been a surprisingly strong shot-generation team this season, particularly on home ice. Their new captain, Sean Couturier, is the perfect example.

He registered at least three shots in 18 of 28 home dates this season (64% success rate), averaging a very healthy 3.6 shots per game.

Couturier's home outputs are drastically better than on the road: He owns a 33% success rate away from Philadelphia and averages 1.2 fewer shots on goal per game.

The good news for Couturier is he is at home against a Lightning team the Flyers might be fighting for a wild-card spot (the No. 3 slot in the Metropolitan is far from secured).

Couturier will be tasked with slowing down Hart Trophy candidate Nikita Kucherov. Given the importance of the game, and the fact the Flyers are off until Friday after this one, Couturier will no doubt get a full workload and then some.

He had six shots on eight attempts when the two sides met back in January. I don't expect that level of volume again, but Couturier should have ample opportunity to get a few pucks on net.

Odds: -125 (playable to -140)

Gabe Vilardi: Over 2.5 shots

Vilardi has gone over his total in five consecutive games, four of which have come against weaker Jets opponents on the outside of the playoff picture.

He's facing another team that fits the bill in the Blues. They've conceded shots at a high clip all season long, giving up a lot of volume even when the wins are there.

The matchup at five-on-five doesn't get much better for Vilardi, as the Blues rank bottom five in shot suppression on the season and over the last 10 games.

Vilardi has also taken on a larger role on the power play. The Jets have run things through Vilardi more of late, allowing him to operate with the puck below the dots. As a result, he leads the team in power-play shots and attempts over the past 10 games, which raises his shooting floor and ceiling.

Vilardi recorded at least three shots in six of his last eight games versus bottom-10 shot-suppression teams. With another favorable matchup and a more significant role on the man advantage, I expect Vilardi to get the job done once again.

Odds: -110 (playable to -130)

Nathan MacKinnon: Over 4.5 shots

MacKinnon is starting to kick things into high gear. His shot volume has spiked lately, with the superstar center recording at least eight attempts in eight of his past 10 games.

That is something of a sweet spot for MacKinnon, who has averaged 5.8 shots per game while posting a 62% success rate in games with at least eight attempts.

There's plenty of reason to expect another high-volume effort in this one. The Avalanche and Stars are among three teams duking it out for top spot in the Central Division. MacKinnon will see a heavy workload in this extremely important game for the Avalanche.

He should have 23-plus minutes against a team he has feasted on in recent years. MacKinnon recorded at least five shots in six of his last seven against the Stars, attempting more than 10 shots per game on average.

With two big points on the line and the Stars on the latter half of a back-to-back, MacKinnon is primed to continue shooting the lights out.

Odds: -130 (playable to -145)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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