NHL weekday betting guide: Which skaters matter most to the moneyline

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Welcome to the second annual edition of "The 4% Club," where we evaluate the skaters who matter most to the moneyline.

For five months, key players have shuffled in and out of their teams' lineups, and the market has responded by shifting their teams' moneylines.

For example, a team that would otherwise be -200 to win might be bet to -150 for a 6.7% change in that team's implied win probability (IWP). Of course, some stars haven't missed any games, so we have to estimate their importance to their team.

That can be hard to evaluate, as there are three types of player-team relationships:

1. A star who makes everyone better

Sure, the Oilers have Leon Draisaitl,and newly minted 40-goal scorer Zach Hyman, but their production can be expected to drop when Connor McDavid misses any time. Just look at how Edmonton fared early in the season when McDavid missed two games and was not himself for a few weeks. Other Hart Trophy candidates, Nathan MacKinnon and Nikita Kucherov, also fit this category.

2. A star on a loaded team

Auston Matthews is on his way to 70 goals - something that may win him the MVP - but with so much depth in their forward group, the Maple Leafs can survive his absence in a given game. By comparison, when Connor Bedard isn't available, the Blackhawks are even less likely to win than usual without their only player who's averaging remotely close to a point per game.

3. Teams that lack an impact skater

Shield your eyes, Coyotes fan: If Clayton Keller (52 points in 57 games) missed a game, would the betting market drastically shift Arizona's moneyline? He's missed four this season, which has meant, at the most extreme, a 3% shift in the market's assessment of the Coyotes' chances without their leading scorer. Sadly, many teams and players fall into this category.

If you boil it down to economics, the Oilers are getting everything they could want out of McDavid's $12.5-million salary. He's taking up 14.9% of their cap, and he's approaching a 15% implied win probability valuation.

Dougie Hamilton's been out of sight and potentially out of mind, but it's no coincidence that a disappointing season in New Jersey lines up with getting just 20 games out of a near-point-per-game defenseman who was supposed to account for 10% of the Devils' salary cap.

Erik Karlsson and Kris Letang have each other to blame for falling off our list. Karlsson's move to Pittsburgh makes him less valuable than when he was the best thing the Sharks had going. Meanwhile, any Letang absence is easier for the Penguins to swallow than last year.

The Jets have the same "good problem" as the Leafs. By adding Gabriel Vilardi, Cole Perfetti, and Nino Niederreiter since we last did this exercise, their incumbent forwards are less singularly valuable. However, if Josh Morrissey missed time, that would leave a sizable hole in Winnipeg.

Why is this important? As bettors, we need to be ready in case any of these players miss a game. If the market doesn't react (or overreacts), that creates enough of an edge to make a valuable bet.

The betting world's dirty little secret is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the process of discovering a good price is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. For injured players, the player's impact on their team's win probability is estimated.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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