Fantasy: Analysis, projections from Day 1 of free agency

With legal tampering underway, several players have already made their intentions known by agreeing to deals with new teams.

Let's take a look at all the notable skill-position transactions so far and what they'll mean for fantasy managers.

Big movesEagles sign RB Saquon Barkley

Contract: 3 years, $37.75

Barkley is leaving New York but staying in the NFC East as a member of the Eagles.

Playing behind Philadelphia's offensive line, which should remain one of the league's better blocking units even with Jason Kelce's retirement, is a coveted spot for a running back.

Like D'Andre Swift last season, Barkley should thrive in a star-studded Eagles attack and continue to be an RB1.

The only area of concern will be near the goal line, where Jalen Hurts' Tush Push comes into play. The NFL doesn't seem interested in banning the play, so Barkley's touchdown ceiling could be capped the same way Swift's was most weeks.

Even so, Barkley will be a highly sought-after fantasy back with a workload that's not likely to be threatened by any of the other rushers on the roster.

Barkley's 2024 projection (16 games): 247 carries, 1,098 rushing yards, 6 TDs, 44 receptions, 269 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Falcons sign QB Kirk Cousins

Contract: 4 years, $180 million

The Falcons finally have a quarterback they can build their offense around. Cousins' interest in Atlanta had been widely reported, but the Vikings were apparently in talks to try and keep him right until the end.

Now we'll get to see what players like Drake London, Bijan Robinson, and Kyle Pitts can do with a competent passer at the helm, which is something fantasy managers should be ecstatic about.

It was hard to properly evaluate the Falcons' pass-catchers due to their recent string of struggling quarterbacks. That won't be an issue any longer with Cousins' signing and a new vision under offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, who comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree.

The 36-year-old Cousins is currently recovering from an Achilles tear he suffered in the middle of the season, but he's expected to be ready for Week 1. That's an exciting development for an organization that at times seemed like it was a quarterback away from being a real playoff contender last year.

With a quality complement of weapons in Atlanta, Cousins should maintain his fantasy value in the low-end QB1/high-end QB2 range. Meanwhile, Robinson is a locked-in top-five back, London is an intriguing top-25 option, and Pitts is a possible breakout candidate after he experienced a couple of down years.

Cousins' 2024 projection (17 games): 4,025 passing yards, 25 TDs, 9 INTs, 21 carries, 58 rushing yards, 4 FL

Packers sign RB Josh Jacobs, release RB Aaron Jones

Contract: 4 years, $48 million

Green Bay's interest over the last couple of seasons in acquiring another running back was no secret, but no one anticipated the Packers making a splash like this with a prominent rusher like Jacobs.

Perhaps even more surprising is the fact that the former Raiders star is replacing Aaron Jones, who was released after Jacobs' signing was announced. With A.J. Dillon being a free agent, this is now entirely Jacobs' backfield.

Jones still has something left in the tank and will give another offense a boost in due time. However, fantasy managers should immediately start to envision Jacobs' extreme ceiling in Matt LaFleur's attack.

If Jacobs can bring his bell-cow status to Green Bay and consolidate the majority of Jones' and Dillon's production, he'll have a chance to push for top-five fantasy numbers at his position.

Dynasty managers would be wise to scoop up Emanuel Wilson, who flashed in limited opportunities in the past. The team is apparently high on him as a backup, according to Rotoworld's Matthew Berry.

Jacobs' 2024 projection (16 games): 256 carries, 1,107 rushing yards, 7 TDs, 41 receptions, 304 receiving yards, TD

Bears sign RB D'Andre Swift

Contract: 3 years, $24.5 million

Chicago got out of the gates quickly during the legal tampering period, inking Swift to one of the bigger running back deals we've seen in recent years.

The former second-round pick resurrected his career as a member of the Eagles, recording his first 1,000-yard campaign as a pro. However, he accomplished the feat behind one of the league's best offensive lines, something the Bears don't have at the moment.

Swift will also face more competition for touches in Chicago with Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert already on the roster. So, fantasy managers would be wise to keep their expectations for Swift in check, even in an offense that will likely feature star prospect Caleb Williams at quarterback.

What we do know is the Bears made it clear with the money and the speed at which they moved to add Swift that they want him to be a big part of their attack moving forward, keeping him in the low-end RB2 conversation.

Meanwhile, Johnson's and Herbert's stock takes a major hit in redraft and dynasty leagues. They'll need an injury to Swift or a change of scenery to regain fantasy relevance.

Swift's 2024 projection (16 games): 211 carries, 928 rushing yards, 5 TDs, 37 receptions, 229 receiving yards, TD

Titans sign RB Tony Pollard

Contract: 3 years, $24 million

Though Tyjae Spears' fantasy managers - myself included - aren't happy about Pollard's arrival in Tennessee, this is a smart move by the Titans to pair two ball carriers who don't profile as workhorse backs.

Both players offer game-breaking ability as runners or pass-catchers anytime they have the ball in their hands, and new head coach Brian Callahan will be able to deploy them interchangeably.

Given the contract he received, Pollard will be the starter with Spears working in an enhanced complementary role. This will allow Pollard, who was still recovering from a foot injury at the start of last season, to stay healthier and more efficient with his touches - like when he shared a backfield with Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas.

Even with some serious concerns about the Titans' offensive line, the 26-year-old Pollard remains a low-end RB2.

Although it's disappointing that Spears' path to fantasy stardom is blocked, he'll continue to provide RB3/flex value while sitting on league-winning upside if Pollard misses time.

Pollard's 2024 projection (16 games): 209 carries, 921 rushing yards, 6 TDs, 43 receptions, 295 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Commanders sign RB Austin Ekeler

Contract: 2 years, $11.43 million

After expressing some uncertainty following the season about whether he'd find a worthwhile destination and role, Ekeler didn't waste any time signing with a new club.

In Washington, he joins a backfield with a perfect complement in Brian Robinson. That means Ekeler can play more of the pass-catching role that was vacated by Antonio GIbson, which suits him better at this stage of his career.

The Commanders' run-game coordinator and running backs coach is Anthony Lynn, who's quite familiar with Ekeler from their time together in the Chargers organization. But let's hope he acknowledges that we've reached the decline phase for the soon-to-be 29-year-old runner.

If you're waiting for the Ekeler of the past to return, it's not going to happen. His time as a top-15 fantasy back is over, but he can still offer RB3/flex value and perhaps a little more in PPR leagues.

His signing is unfortunate for Robinson's outlook, pushing him into RB3/flex territory as an early-down and goal-line option only.

It'll take an injury to one of these backs in order for someone to emerge as a difference-making fantasy starter.

Ekeler's 2024 projection (16 games): 154 carries, 672 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 47 receptions, 377 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Bengals sign RB Zack Moss, release RB Joe Mixon

Contract: 2 years, $8 million

The running back carousel continued into Monday evening, with the Bengals following in the Packers' footsteps by adding a free-agent ball carrier and then cutting their longtime starter.

Speculation that Mixon's days in Cincinnati would come to an end had intensified entering the offseason.

In his place comes Moss, who shined as the Colts' starter in Jonathan Taylor's absence at the start of last season. The 26-year-old had multiple 100-yard games over the first eight weeks and was the RB7 overall in fantasy points per game during that time.

He should make an excellent fit as a power option who can split time with the more explosive Chase Brown - a fifth-round pick who flashed during his rookie campaign.

It sets up Moss to be a high-end RB3 with RB2 upside if he can distance himself from Brown. The speedy Brown offers RB3/flex value in fantasy.

Moss' 2024 projection (16 games): 223 carries, 956 rushing yards, 7 TDs, 29 receptions, 209 receiving yards

Giants sign RB Devin Singletary

Contract: 3 years, $16.5 million

Despite being undervalued each year by the fantasy community, Singletary continues to find himself in situations where he has a path to a starting role.

That's what happened when he left Buffalo for Houston, and the result was a strong finish to the season where he posted RB16 fantasy numbers on a per-game basis over the final nine weeks as the Texans' lead back.

Now he heads to New York where he'll reunite with Brian Daboll and have a chance to be the Saquon Barkley replacement in the Giants' backfield.

We still have a long way to go with free agency and the draft, so New York probably isn't done adding ball carriers. If Singletary can survive atop the depth chart into the summer, he'll be a borderline low-end RB2 for fantasy. However, the more likely scenario will have the Giants drafting or signing a back to pair with him.

Even if New York drafts a potential starting back, Singletary would be a high-upside backup to target late in fantasy drafts.

Singletary's 2024 projection (16 games): 157 carries, 658 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 27 receptions, 173 receiving yards, TD

Jaguars sign WR Gabe Davis

Contract: 3 years, $39 million

Davis departs Buffalo, where he was a volatile producer while catching passes from one of the NFL's best quarterbacks in Josh Allen, to join Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars.

The 24-year-old wideout failed to provide the Bills with a consistent second option in the passing game. However, Jacksonville's front office must believe in his potential since this signing likely brings an end to its attempts to retain Calvin Ridley.

The Jaguars' faith in Davis isn't enough to sway my outlook for him as a boom-or-bust WR4.

His presence as a Ridley replacement is actually exciting news for Christian Kirk and Evan Engram. Kirk moves into the low-end fantasy WR2 mix and Engram is solidified as a mid-range TE1.

It wouldn't even surprise me if Davis and Zay Jones have similar stat lines this season, assuming Jones remains on the roster.

Davis' 2024 projection (17 games): 49 receptions, 657 receiving yards, 6 TDs

Steelers sign QB Russell Wilson

Contract: 1 year, $1.2 million

Wilson's signing happened on the eve of the legal tampering period, but we'll include it with the Day 1 moves anyway.

Many fantasy managers are down on Wilson after he struggled to elevate the Broncos' offense over the last couple of seasons, and for good reason. He at times appeared to be a shell of the player he was while with the Seahawks.

However, what have you seen from Kenny Pickett over the last couple of years that makes you think he'll emerge as a reliable starter?

Pickett has averaged fewer than 200 passing yards per game and thrown 13 touchdowns and 13 interceptions over his 25 NFL appearances. His erratic play will likely remind new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith of the quarterback issues he dealt with as the Falcons' head coach.

Even with Wilson being a less impressive version of what he was a few years ago, the veteran will be the Steelers' best remaining option.

He won't amount to much more than a low-end QB2 or streamer, but Wilson will be a slight upgrade for George Pickens and the rest of Pittsburgh's pass-catchers.

Wilson's 2024 projection (17 games): 3,574 passing yards, 19 TDs, 11 INTs, 54 carries, 236 rushing yards, 6 FL

Minor movesChargers sign RB Gus Edwards

This could become a major move if the Chargers don't make a significant addition to their backfield. At the moment, Edwards is reunited with his former Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman in an offense we project to run the ball more. Keep a close eye on Edwards as a long-shot starter, but he's more likely a touchdown-dependent flex option.

Patriots sign QB Jacoby Brissett, RB Antonio Gibson

Brissett going back to New England makes a lot of sense, especially given how well he performed in stints as a backup turned starter with the Browns and Commanders over the last two years. The veteran passer is more than capable of being under center for the Patriots as a bridge QB or a full-season starter if need be. The only question that remains is whether the team uses the third overall pick on a quarterback who can learn alongside Brissett or drafts a star rookie wideout to give the offense some much-needed juice downfield.

For Gibson, Rhamondre Stevenson is the top dog in New England's backfield, and this signing doesn't change that. It does give the Pats a quality backup and change-of-pace option. Though Gibson fizzled out in Washington, he's still capable of being a good fantasy starter if Stevenson were to miss time.

Raiders sign QB Gardner Minshew

The Raiders likely have another move up their sleeve at quarterback, but Minshew would be in a competition with Aidan O'Connell for the starting job if training camp began today. Given the weapons in Vegas' offense (Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Michael Mayer), it's not impossible to see Minshew serving as a low-end QB2 superflex option. But let's hope the Raiders' front office views him as a strong backup and not someone they plan to have under center in Week 1.

Seahawks re-sign TE Noah Fant

There was a lot of hope that a Fant signing would be a big move fantasy-wise, but returning to Seattle is one of the worst spots for him to end up. He's failed to make much of an impact in fantasy leagues during his time with the Seahawks, and with Tyler Lockett restructuring his contract to stay, Fant will once again find himself behind Lockett, DK Metcalf, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Fant will continue to be a low-end TE2 and someone you can avoid in most drafts.

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