NHL weekday betting guide: What's a goal worth toward winning probability?

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We had some fun last week with the betting market's evaluation of players this season. Now it's time to do our math homework, since we should figure out what a goal is worth to a team's theoretical chances of winning.

Through March 10, an average of 6.12 goals have been scored per NHL game. As a result, if you were to practically set targets for your team as you sit down to watch them play, you'd pick two:

1. Score four goals
2. Allow fewer than three

If the average number of goals in a game is six, teams should frequently win with four goals or by allowing two or fewer. Look at the league-wide scoreboard on any given night to note how often 4-3, 4-2, and 3-2 final scores occur.

Skater valuations

If four goals should get you a win, each goal scored should be worth 25% toward an expected win, right? Sort of. Since getting to four goals is only half the battle, each goal is actually worth 12.5% toward an expected win.

Each player's valuation should be built on how likely they are to contribute to a goal. With 153 points last season, did Connor McDavid contribute toward 82 more goals than a replacement-level player would have? If you put an average center on the Oilers alongside Leon Draisaitl and on the power play, and they had a 71-point season, the answer is yes. At that point, McDavid's 12% valuation is fair.

If Auston Matthews scores 70 goals this season, he'll have singularly contributed 8.75 wins to the Maple Leafs, who are on pace for 47.4 wins this season. Is he worth 8.75 wins? No, because if Toronto had to replace his role (first line and power play) with a league-average player, that player (think a combination of Matthew Knies and Tyler Bertuzzi) could score 24 goals (three expected wins) of his own surrounded by the Leafs' remaining talent.

Matthews' goals alone could be credited for almost six wins per season. At $11.6 million in salary, Matthews' historic season may net Toronto one win per $2 million spent. In a less-than-shocking development: He's worth it. If everyone else could do that, a team would be a lock for 50 wins per year in this era of the nearly $100-million salary cap.

As an aside: Six wins in an 82-game season equates to 7.3% of Toronto's wins, so last week's 5% market valuation of Matthews is close.

The cheat sheet

The betting world's dirty little secret is that while there are no bad bets at the right price, the process of discovering a good price is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. For injured players, the player's impact on their team's win probability is estimated.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

DATE	GAME	WIN PROB. (%)	PRICE TO BET
Mar. 12	PIT@OTT	50.8/49.2	PIT +107/OTT +114
	NYR@CAR	34.4/65.6	NYR +229/CAR -182
	DET@BUF	36.8/63.2	DET +205/BUF -164
	CBJ@MTL	46.6/53.4	CBJ +135/MTL -110
	SJS@PHI	32.5/67.5	SJS +251/PHI -199
	FLA@DAL	43.0/57.0	FLA +156/DAL -127
	ARI@MIN	34.6/65.4	ARI +227/MIN -181
	ANA@CHI	45.1/54.9	ANA +143/CHI -117
	COL@CGY	53.0/47.0	COL -108/CGY +132
	VGK@SEA	47.1/52.9	VGK +132/SEA -108
Mar. 13	LAK@STL	59.9/40.1	LAK -143/STL +177
	NSH@WPG	43.8/56.2	NSH +151/WPG -123
	WSH@EDM	29.1/70.9	WSH +298/EDM -232
	COL@VAN	56.0/44.0	COL -122/VAN +150
Mar. 14	SJS@PIT	19.6/80.4	SJS +542/PIT -386
	OTT@CBJ	57.5/42.5	OTT -130/CBJ +160
	NYI@BUF	45.3/54.7	NYI +142/BUF -116
	FLA@CAR	38.6/61.4	FLA +189/CAR -153
	NYR@TB	49.8/50.2	NYR +111/TB +110
	BOS@MTL	62.5/37.5	BOS -160/MTL +199
	ARI@DET	46.0/54.0	ARI +138/DET -113
	TOR@PHI	62.8/37.2	TOR -161/PHI +201
	NJD@DAL	41.2/58.8	NJD +169/DAL -137
	ANA@MIN	28.3/71.7	ANA +311/MIN -241
	VGK@CGY	44.8/55.2	VGK +145/CGY -118
	WSH@SEA	35.5/64.5	WSH +218/SEA -174

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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