Fantasy: Analysis, projections from the latest signings and trades

Justin Boone

from on 2024-03-15 19:13 (#6KCG8)

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Let's look at all the notable skill-position transactions from the last few days and what they'll mean for fantasy managers.

Big movesBears acquire WR Keenan Allen

The Chargers found a way to overcome a difficult salary cap situation and keep their star edge rushers Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa, but it came at the expense of their receiving corps. After releasing Mike Williams, the team made a stunning move to trade Allen, their top remaining wideout, to Chicago for just a fourth-round pick.

Even at 31 years old, Allen continues to be one of the most productive pass-catchers in the league. He's coming off a season with 108 receptions, 1,243 yards, and seven touchdowns.

Allen joins an ascending Bears' offense that already features a strong No. 1 receiver in D.J. Moore. If the Bears draft quarterback Caleb Williams first overall, as expected, the rookie will have arguably the best receiver duo the NFL has to offer at his disposal. That gives him a legitimate chance to post QB1 fantasy stats in his debut campaign.

It's hard to project Allen's numbers rising with this move. While he's still extremely effective, sharing the field with Moore will complicate both players' outlooks.

Tight end Cole Kmet is the real faller based on this move. He'll struggle to see significant targets consistently, so he drops to the TE2/streamer mix as a more touchdown-dependent option.

Allen's 2024 projection (15 games): 83 receptions, 956 receiving yards, 5 TDs

Chargers release WR Mike Williams

As mentioned above, the Chargers let the two biggest names in their WR room leave this week. It's a reminder that new head coach Jim Harbaugh and general manager Joe Hortiz are remaking this roster in their vision.

It shouldn't take long for Williams to find a new home. We know that, when he's healthy, the 29-year-old can be a quality starter in real life and fantasy. But we'll revisit his value once he signs with a new club.

These moves make it seem likely that the Chargers will select either Marvin Harrison Jr. or Malik Nabers with the fifth overall pick in April's draft. Either player would immediately become Justin Herbert's top target since last year's first-rounder Quentin Johnston struggled as a rookie and Josh Palmer is more of a No. 2 or No. 3 option.

Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman favor run-heavy approaches, and everything points toward that being the identity of the Chargers' attack in 2024. That forces me to downgrade Herbert's early projection for this coming season, moving him into the low-end QB1 conversation.

Chiefs sign WR Marquise Brown

Brown's contract: 1 year, $11 million

Kansas City may have been in the hunt for Keenan Allen because reports about the Chiefs signing Brown trickled out moments after the Allen trade was announced.

Regardless, Patrick Mahomes gets another weapon to play with - and it's a serious upgrade.

Brown dealt with injuries to himself and his quarterback during his two years in Arizona, but he's just a couple of seasons removed from a 1,000-yard campaign with the Ravens.

His speed and field-stretching ability will be a welcome addition to Andy Reid's offense and should help take some pressure off Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice.

Catching passes from Mahomes makes Brown an intriguing fantasy WR3/flex, and he has an even higher ceiling if he can earn enough targets alongside Kelce and Rice.

This doesn't make a huge impact on the fantasy projections for Mahomes, Kelce, or Rice, but it does give Hollywood Brown a chance to kickstart his career.

Brown's 2024 projection (15 games): 62 receptions, 837 receiving yards, 5 TDs

Titans sign WR Calvin Ridley

Ridley's contract: 4 years, $92 million

Despite reports linking him to the Patriots and Jaguars, Ridley inked a massive deal with the Titans.

In Tennessee, Ridley will battle 31-year-old DeAndre Hopkins for the No. 1 role in new head coach Brian Callahan's offense. It's expected to be a more pass-heavy scheme than the Titans ran under Mike Vrabel, but there are still a lot of questions surrounding quarterback Will Levis.

If he stumbles, it won't be because of his weapons, which now include Ridley, Hopkins, former first-rounder Treylon Burks, pass-catching tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo, and two explosive backs in Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears.

Ridley's success will come down to Levis' development, but it's still wise to approach the Titans' offense cautiously. Until Levis proves himself, it's hard to see Ridley and Hopkins as anything more than WR3/flex options for fantasy.

Ridley's 2024 projection (17 games): 74 receptions, 923 receiving yards, 6 TDs

Minor movesBills sign WR Curtis Samuel

Samuel's three-year, $24-million deal is the first step to help the Bills replace Gabe Davis, who left for the Jaguars in free agency. He's under minor moves because it's unlikely to be the last, as Buffalo will search for another playmaker either in free agency or the draft. Until we know who that is, it's hard to lock Samuel's projection down. However, don't forget that his best season came in Carolina under current Bills' offensive coordinator Joe Brady in 2020 when he was the WR27 in fantasy points per game with 77 catches, 851 receiving yards, 200 rushing yards, and five touchdowns.

Packers re-sign RB AJ Dillon

Dillon's exploration of the free agent market didn't land him a sizeable contract or a significant role elsewhere, so he's returning to Green Bay. He still carries some name value, but the 25-year-old's production has declined for a couple of years. With a younger three-down back in Josh Jacobs taking over for Aaron Jones, expect Dillon's touches to decrease even further. His path to fantasy relevance will require a Jacobs' injury, though Dillon would still only be a low-ceiling, volume-dependent fantasy starter.

Eagles acquire QB Kenny Pickett

As usual, Eagles general manager Howie Roseman saw an opportunity and jumped on it. Russell Wilson signed with the Steelers, so Pickett was about to be relegated to backup duties in Pittsburgh. He'll now get a chance to write a new chapter while holding the clipboard behind Jalen Hurts. It was clear Pickett wasn't ready to be a starter in the NFL, but perhaps he can rehabilitate his career in Philadelphia. His only real fantasy value at the moment is as a superflex stash in case Hurts goes down.

Seahawks acquire QB Sam Howell

Signing Marcus Mariota made Sam Howell expendable for the Commanders since Washington plans to take a quarterback with the second-overall pick. Now in Seattle, Howell will learn behind Geno Smith, which gives the team a competent fallback option if the veteran misses time or struggles during the season. In that scenario, Howell would be an interesting fantasy starter with his rushing ability and the Seahawks' skill-position talent.

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