Expect fireworks in Avalanche-Blue Jackets tilt

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Only four games are scheduled on a light Friday night in the NHL. Luckily, there's still value to be had on the board. Let's take a closer look.

The Penguins have the look of a team that's finished. Normally a pretty structured team under head coach Mike Sullivan, their defensive game has gone completely in the tank as their playoff chances have diminished.

They've allowed 36.28 expected goals over the last 10 games, which is the league's third-highest output. That's predictably led to a ton of goals against; only the Sharks have conceded more in that span.

Playing loose defense isn't ideal heading into a game against the Stars. They have a deep and talented forward group and get scoring from all their lines.

Dallas has found the back of the net 38 times over the last 10 games, and no team has generated more expected goals. The Stars are putting stress on opposing defenses, and the Penguins don't look equipped to handle it.

Depending on your preferred source, Pittsburgh has anywhere from a 3-6% chance of making the playoffs. Its hopes are slim to none, while the powerhouse Stars are in the thick of a heated battle for the Central Division.

Dallas is in much better form, has significantly more talent and depth, is at home, and is incentivized to put its best foot forward.

Look for the Stars to take care of business within 60 minutes.

Bet: Stars in regulation (-125)

The Avs are playing as well as anybody. They own a 9-1 record over the past 10 games, and no team has scored more goals in that span.

The returns of Valeri Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen, coupled with deadline acquisitions like Casey Mittelstadt and Yakov Trenin, have made Colorado four lines deep. That's scary considering the top of the lineup is loaded with firepower.

Nobody has an answer for slowing this Avalanche attack down, and I don't expect the Blue Jackets to find one Friday night.

They rank 29th in expected goals against at five-on-five and 27th while killing penalties over the past 10 games. That's a recipe for disaster against these Avs.

Colorado should be able to flex its muscles and score another four or five goals Friday. If that's the case, this game will be in a great spot to go over the number.

For all of the Blue Jackets' faults, they're a respectable team offensively. They sit 13th in expected goals and tied for 18th in actual goals over the last 10.

Columbus has also played at the league's third-highest pace in that span, while the Avalanche come in atop the leaderboard.

All the stars are aligning for a high-event affair in Colorado. I expect a 5-2 or 5-3 type of game and see value in playing the over.

Bet: Over 6.5 goals (-125)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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