'Ice Insanity' Part 3: Goalies get the spotlight

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Things are heating up inside our fake midseason NHL one-and-done tournament.

In preparation for the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but with the intense urgency of March Madness, we've taken tenets of hockey handicapping and applied them to a made-up tournament to show how early upsets may happen a month from now and what's required for a deep run.

"Ice Insanity" started with the hot team advancing out of the first round. The Sweet 16 came down to which team was more likely to sustain good play for more than one matchup.

Now into the Elite Eight, we know the remaining teams can hold their own. However, at some point, you need a good goaltender, ideally one coming in hot. So, to pick our Final Four, we're looking at who's most likely to steal a game for their team by breaking down the starting goaltender's GSAx (goals saved above expected) per 60 minutes since the All-Star break. With goaltenders as finicky as they are, how one played back in October means little to expectations today:

The Smythe final is interesting because the Bruins and Hurricanes are currently alternating goalies. We picked the better of Boston's Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman and Carolina's Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov. Bottom line: Carolina's netminders are playing better.

The Norris final was similarly intriguing as both Thatcher Demko and Jacob Markstrom have identical 0.3 GSAx/60 marks since the All-Star break, but both have also been banged up. Assuming they're healthy, we're going to a tiebreaker: season-long GSAx. Both goalies have been great on balance, but Markstrom's 31.22 goals saved in 2,475 minutes are more impressive than Demko's 24.79 in 2,896.

The most clear-cut winner comes in the Patrick region, where Sergei Bobrovsky has been better than rock-solid Juuse Saros.

In each round of our fictional tournament, there's been one mediocre matchup. Maybe the Oilers will overcome lackluster goaltending in real life, or turn to Calvin Pickard (0.31 GSAx/60), but until then, Marc-Andre Fleury clips Edmonton.

On Friday, we'll decide the finalists and the first champion of "Ice Insanity," focusing on high-end on-ice talent. With scoring chances at a minimum, who's more likely to convert the few opportunities afforded them?

The betting world's dirty little secret is that while there are no bad bets at the right price, the process of discovering a good price is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. For injured players, the player's impact on their team's win probability is estimated.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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