NHL betting guide: Does regular-season xG% correlate to playoff success?
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What does it take to win the Stanley Cup?
The qualitative answers to such an all-encompassing question include toughness, determination, resilience, strength, skill, and a whole lot of luck.
Approaching the playoffs, we look for quantitative hints to spring's biggest question. Thinking about it logically, we want our team to do three things:
- Outplay opponents at even strength, drive play to wear down the opposition, get high-danger chances, and draw penalties.
- Score at a high rate when the best opportunities (even-strength high-danger chances, power plays) come about.
- Limit chances and expected goals from opponents' high-danger chances more often than an average netminder.
Before we get to this year's Stanley Cup Playoffs, let's look back at the last three years and see how the conference finalists faired during the regular season.
First up, a trusted method to measure play-driving: expected goals share (xG%) at even strength (ES):
| YEAR | TEAM | ES xG% (Regular) | ES xG% (Playoffs) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Lightning | 52.0% (6th) | 50.5% (9th) |
| Canadiens | 45.0% (12th) | 48.9% (10th) | |
| Golden Knights | 52.4% (5th) | 55.5% (4th) | |
| Islanders | 47.4% (10th) | 47.0% (11th) | |
| 2022 | Avalanche | 52.7% (9th) | 59.1% (2nd) |
| Lightning | 52.0% (12th) | 51.5% (8th) | |
| Rangers | 49.4% (19th) | 39.6% (15th) | |
| Oilers | 53.3% (6th) | 51.6% (7th) | |
| 2023 | Golden Knights | 50.8% (16th) | 51.8% (7th) |
| Panthers | 52.8% (9th) | 46.5% (15th) | |
| Hurricanes | 58.6% (1st) | 53.7% (3rd) | |
| Stars | 53.4% (6th) | 55.2% (1st) |
Is there a correlation to playoff success?
Interestingly, just five of the 12 teams to make a conference final and just one Stanley Cup finalist - the teams in bold in the table above - had a season where they finished in the top eight, a cohort that suggests they're in the top half of the 16 playoff teams.
While we'd prefer to back teams that have a better rate of creating scoring chances than not, there's no recent direct correlation from regular-season success in this metric. This is similar to the regular-season standings, where we've seen three division winners, four second-place finishers, two third-place teams, and three from the fourth/wild-card spot make a conference final.
2023-'24 Even-strength xG%| TEAM | 2023-'24 ES xG% |
|---|---|
| Oilers | 56.5% |
| Panthers | 55.4% |
| Hurricanes | 55.4% |
| Stars | 54.9% |
| Kings | 54.1% |
| Predators | 52.7% |
| Avalanche | 52.5% |
| Canucks | 52.2% |
The top eight teams in xG% are all expected to be in the playoffs but will likely need to do more to make a run in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
On Monday, we'll see how successful playoff teams have recently stacked up in SNIPES, a metric we created that evaluates how good a team's top-end talent is at converting scoring opportunities.
The cheat sheetThe dirty little secret in the betting world is that while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.
Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.
You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:
- True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
- True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
- True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%
I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.
When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.
| DATE | GAME | WIN PROB. (%) | PRICE TO BET |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr. 5 | NYR@DET | 58.5/41.5 | NYR -135/DET +166 |
| WSH@CAR | 19.0/81.0 | WSH +568/CAR -401 | |
| PHI@BUF | 39.0/61.0 | PHI +186/BUF -150 | |
| COL@EDM | 36.5/63.5 | COL +208/EDM -167 | |
| SEA@ANA | 62.9/37.1 | SEA -163/ANA +203 | |
| VGK@ARI | 62.6/37.4 | VGK -161/ARI +200 | |
| Apr. 6 | TB@PIT | 43.5/56.5 | TB +153/PIT -125 |
| FLA@BOS | 45.8/54.2 | FLA +139/BOS -114 | |
| WPG@MIN | 44.4/55.6 | WPG +147/MIN -120 | |
| DAL@CHI | 75.9/24.1 | DAL -299/CHI +398 | |
| STL@SJS | 61.4/38.6 | STL -153/SJS +189 | |
| TOR@MTL | 68.4/31.6 | TOR -206/MTL +262 | |
| NJD@OTT | 53.8/46.2 | NJD -112/OTT +137 | |
| PHI@CBJ | 45.6/54.4 | PHI +140/CBJ -115 | |
| NSH@NYI | 47.8/52.2 | NSH +121/NYI +101 | |
| VAN@LAK | 38.9/61.1 | VAN +186/LAK -151 | |
| EDM@CGY | 57.9/42.1 | EDM -132/CGY +163 | |
| Apr. 7 | BUF@DET | 52.3/47.7 | BUF +101/DET +121 |
| MIN@CHI | 65.1/34.9 | MIN -178/CHI +223 | |
| CBJ@CAR | 12.5/87.5 | CBJ +1076/CAR -640 | |
| OTT@WSH | 44.3/55.7 | OTT +148/WSH -121 | |
| ARI@SJS | 62.5/37.5 | ARI -160/SJS +199 | |
| NSH@NJD | 40.7/59.3 | NSH +172/NJD -140 | |
| MTL@NYR | 22.6/77.4 | MTL +437/NYR -323 | |
| STL@ANA | 50.2/49.8 | STL +110/ANA +111 | |
| DAL@COL | 43.4/56.7 | DAL +155/COL -126 |
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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