Stanley Cup Playoffs betting: Previewing the East's 1st-round series

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

The Western Conference's eight playoff teams have been set for some time, while the East had more of a royal rumble for its final playoff berth. Do the Presidents' Trophy-winning Rangers have a beneficial path? What should we make of the rivalry-laden gauntlet that is the Atlantic Division?

Using the tools we've sharpened leading up to the postseason (even strength play-driving, skating talent, goaltending), let's break it all down, series by series.

ADVANCED METRICS GLOSSARY
ES = Even strength xG%= Expected goals share HDCA/G= High-danger chances allowed per game GSAx/60= Goals saved above expected per 60 minutes SNIPES= HDC goals + power-play goals / HDC + power-play chances

Maple Leafs vs. Bruins

TEAM	GAME 1	SERIES	SERIES HANDICAP
Maple Leafs	+115	+110	+1.5 (-210)
Bruins	-135	-130	-1.5 (+170)

Tale of the tape

Converting scoring changes at a high rate and having above-average goaltending are crucial ingredients to playoff success. Let's look at predictive metrics for those two elements.

Skaters' scoring talent

TEAM	SNIPES	ES xG%	HDCA/G
Maple Leafs	14.8%	52.1	9.8
Bruins	15.6%	50.3	9.8

The Maple Leafs and Bruins were above league average in SNIPES percentage, but Toronto was the better team at driving play at even strength this season.

Goaltending matchup

TEAM	GOALTENDER	GSAx/60 (POST-ASB)
Maple Leafs	Ilya Samsonov	0.135
Bruins	Jeremy Swayman	0.401
	Linus Ullmark	0.569

As of two weeks ago, Ilya Samsonov qualified as a contender for this playoffs' hot goalie, but a minus-4.08 goals saved above expected in April dipped his GSAx/60 below a standard of 0.25. The Bruins have the clear edge between the pipes in this series.

Team ratings

Oddsmakers create moneylines based on a numerical valuation of every team. Here's the market's most recent valuation compared to how I have them rated (based on the metrics above) for the full season and post-All-Star break:

TEAM	MARKET	SEASON	POST-ASB
Maple Leafs	+15.0%	+18.2%	+9.9%
Bruins	+15.0%	+11.2%	-2.9%

The Bruins' metrics after the All-Star break stick out like a sore thumb, with a 48.6% expected goals share as the main culprit, suggesting they've been below average. They let the Atlantic Division slip through their fingers and must turn their play around to avoid another first-round upset in a row.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

TEAM	SERIES WIN PROB.	GM 1/2/5/7	GM 3/4/6	SERIES
Maple Leafs	55.5%	+113	-125	-120
Bruins	44.5%	+108	+153	+138

The headline here is that I have the Maple Leafs as the better team and a short favorite despite the Bruins having home-ice advantage and the prevailing sentiment that Boston has historically had Toronto's number.

These teams haven't met in the playoffs since back-to-back seven-game series in 2018 and 2019. Since losing both, the Leafs have improved - exemplified by Auston Matthews doubling his season goal count - and have their deepest forward group yet.

Expectations were probably too high for a young team pre-pandemic, which created a narrative among bettors that the Maple Leafs should be afraid of the Bruins. However, after getting the first-round monkey off their back last season, you should have no problem backing the Leafs at a plus price to win within six games.

Best bet: Maple Leafs -1.5 games (+180)

Lightning vs. Panthers

TEAM	GAME 1	SERIES	SERIES HANDICAP
Lightning	+135	+160	+1.5 (-145)
Panthers	-160	-190	-1.5 (+115)

Tale of the tape

Skaters' scoring talent

TEAM	SNIPES	ES xG%	HDCA/G
Lightning	17.1%	49.2	9.0
Panthers	13.8%	55.6	8.4

The Panthers have been the more dominant team all season, but the Lightning have the highest SNIPES percentage of any playoff team and are thus dangerous in the small sample size of a seven-game series.

Goaltending matchup

TEAM	GOALTENDER	GSAx/60(POST-ASB)
Lightning	Andrei Vasilevskiy	-0.13
Panthers	Sergei Bobrovsky	0.42

The Lightning's hopes rest on Andrei Vasilevskiy going from liability this season (coming off hip surgery) to pulling off a similar feat to Carey Price or Marc-Andre Fleury - two veteran goalies who recently carried teams to the conference finals despite poor regular seasons.

Team ratings

TEAM	MARKET	SEASON	POST-ASB
Lightning	+5%	+8.9%	-0.6%
Panthers	+20%	+13.7%	+7.8%

The Panthers have been rated higher and played better than the Lightning all season.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

TEAM	SERIES WIN PROB.	GM 1/2/5/7	GM 3/4/6	SERIES
Lightning	43.7%	+149	+106	+152
Panthers	56.3%	-122	+116	-124

In 10 recent playoff matchups against the Panthers, the Lightning have won eight, thanks mainly to a 34.3% power-play efficiency. The veteran group that ran out of gas against Toronto last year won't be afraid of its in-state rival.

Tampa was 28.7% with the man advantage this season (and top five on the penalty kill). If it can get a short-term boost from Vasilevskiy, there's some value on the Lightning - their odds have lengthened since opening at around +140.

Best bet: Lightning to win series (+160)

Capitals vs. Rangers

TEAM	GAME 1	SERIES	SERIES HANDICAP
Capitals	+195	+340	+1.5 (+140)
Rangers	-240	-450	-1.5 (-175)

Tale of the tape

Skaters' scoring talent

TEAM	SNIPES	ES xG%	HDCA/G
Capitals	14.1%	47.7	9.7
Rangers	15.0%	50.1	9.8

Metrics-based bettors didn't like that the Rangers won the Presidents' Trophy despite an even split in their even-strength expected goals share. Getting the top seed has earned them a matchup with the Capitals, one of three playoff teams worse in that metric.

Goaltending matchup

TEAM	GOALTENDER	GSAx/60(POST-ASB)
Capitals	Charlie Lindgren	0.25
Rangers	Igor Shesterkin	0.72

After a slow start in which Jonathan Quick excelled in the backup role, Igor Shesterkin is back to being a problem for opposing shooters. Meanwhile, the Capitals' unlikely run to the playoffs was aided by Charlie Lindgren's emergence.

Team ratings

TEAM	MARKET	SEASON	POST-ASB
Capitals	-15%	-7.4%	-3.1%
Rangers	+15%	+11.4%	-0.01%

The Capitals never got credit in the betting market as even an average team, while the Rangers often looked like one but with far better results.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

TEAM	NEUT.WIN PROB.	GM 1/2/5/7	GM 3/4/6	SERIES
Capitals	28.2%	+207	+152	+313
Rangers	71.8%	-166	-124	-243

The Rangers' SNIPES percentage and stellar goaltending more than made up for average even-strength metrics. It's a similar story to two seasons ago when Shesterkin stood on his head to beat the Penguins. New York reached the conference final despite allowing 138 more high-danger chances than they generated.

The Rangers are marginally overvalued at the current series price but have a track record of overcoming that. Instead of taking the Capitals to win the series, let's bet on this series going a little longer than the market expects.

Best bet: Over 5.5 games (-105)

Islanders vs. Hurricanes

TEAM	GAME 1	SERIES	SERIES HANDICAP
Islanders	+180	+300	+1.5 (+125)
Hurricanes	-220	-400	-1.5 (-165)

Tale of the tape

Skaters' scoring talent

TEAM	SNIPES	ES xG%	HDCA/G
Islanders	13.5%	48.7	10.0
Hurricanes	13.9%	56.4	8.0

This matchup is why it's worth noting high-danger chances against per game. There's not much difference in the other three series, but the Hurricanes have a massive two-per-game differential over the Islanders.

Goaltending matchup

TEAM	GOALTENDER	GSAx/60(POST-ASB)
Islanders	Ilya Sorokin	0.06
	Semyon Varlamov	0.45
Hurricanes	Frederik Andersen	1.46
	Pyotr Kochetkov	0.59

We've included both Canes goaltenders because Frederik Andersen might not be up for a full-time workload, and Pyotr Kochetkov's numbers are so good that the team should have no issue giving Andersen a breather. Meanwhile, the Isles appear to be turning to theoretical backup Semyon Varlamov in Game 1.

Team ratings

TEAM	MARKET	SEASON	POST-ASB
Islanders	-5%	-2.7%	+2.0%
Hurricanes	+25%	+30.4%	+18.7%

Simply put, the Hurricanes have few holes, while the Isles are average at best, with no arguable advantage in any key category.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

TEAM	SERIES WIN PROB.	GM 1/2/5/7	GM 3/4/6	SERIES PTB
Islanders	16.5%	+293	+199	+697
Hurricanes	83.5%	-228	-160	-470

Despite excellent even-strength metrics in recent years, the Hurricanes' poor scoring rates have prevented them from meeting expectations. Many will forget that they didn't have Andrei Svechnikov (knee injury) last year. They've added Jake Guentzel (25 points in 17 games), while 22-year-old Seth Jarvis had a 33-goal breakout season. Scoring-depth issues should be solved, and Carolina should make quick work of the Islanders.

Best bet: Hurricanes -1.5 games (-165)

(Stats sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright (C) 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.