In this shadow war between Iran and Israel, the outline of a different future is visible | Jonathan Freedland

Both seem keen to limit hostilities, and key Arab states are ready to resist Tehran. But real change will require new Israeli leadership

When it comes to the Middle East, it's the pessimists who look smartest. Predict the worst and you'll rarely be proved wrong. If you are, it's usually because your forecast was insufficiently bleak.

So put on your gloom-tinted spectacles and assess the events of the last week. You'll see the dawn of a grim new era, in which the region's two strongest powers, Israel and Iran, trade blows directly. Last weekend, Iran crossed what had previously been a red line, aiming a barrage of missiles and drones directly at Israeli territory for the first time. In the early hours of Friday morning, Israel responded with a series of drone strikes on targets inside Iran, including Isfahan, site of an airbase and the country's burgeoning nuclear programme. You don't have to be Clausewitz to know that two regional powers, one an aspirant nuclear state, the other already there, engaged in a tit-for-tat exchange of fire aimed at each other's sovereign terrain spells danger.

Jonathan Freedland is a Guardian columnist

Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here.