Stanley Cup Playoffs betting: Previewing the West's 1st-round series

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The Eastern Conference matchups and their odds have been on the board for days, while the regular season's final night and a pair of surprising results shuffled the deck one final time out West.

Using the tools we've sharpened leading up to the postseason (even strength play-driving, skating talent, goaltending), let's break it all down, series by series.

ADVANCED METRICS GLOSSARY
ES = Even strength xG%= Expected goals share HDCA/G= High-danger chances allowed per game GSAx/60= Goals saved above expected per 60 minutes SNIPES= HDC goals + power-play goals / HDC + power-play chances

Kings vs. Oilers

TEAM	GAME 1	SERIES	SERIES HANDICAP
Kings	+140	+160	+1.5 (-145)
Oilers	-165	-190	-1.5 (+120)

Tale of the tape

Converting scoring changes at a high rate and having above-average goaltending are crucial ingredients to playoff success. Let's look at predictive metrics for those two elements.

Skaters' scoring talent

TEAM	SNIPES	ES xG%	HDCA/G
Kings	14.9%	54.5	8.3
Oilers	15.3%	56.7	8.8

Both the Kings and Oilers have converted their best scoring chances (SNIPES) above the league average of 14.5% and are also in the top five in expected goal share.

Goaltending matchup

TEAM	GOALTENDER	GSAx/60 (POST-ASB)
Kings	Cam Talbot	0.47
	David Rittich	0.64
Oilers	Stuart Skinner	0.16

Skinner came into last year's playoffs saving the Oilers 0.26 goals per 60 minutes after the All-Star break but was replaced by Jack Campbell after posting a -6.9 GSA/x in 12 games. Meanwhile, it remains to be seen if the 36-year-old Talbot can handle the postseason workload.

Team ratings

Oddsmakers create moneylines based on a numerical valuation of every team. Here's the market's most recent valuation compared to how I rate them (based on the metrics above) for the full season and post-All-Star break.

TEAM	MARKET	SEASON	POST-ASB
Kings	+15%	+18.9%	+7.1%
Oilers	+25%	+25.3%	+10.7%

Despite a slow start, the market never wavered on the Oilers, properly rating them as one of the NHL's top teams. The Kings' swoon happened midseason, and some late missteps are concerning, but I have them rated marginally higher than the market.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

TEAM	SERIES WIN PROB	GM 1/2/5/7	GM 3/4/6	SERIES
Kings	39.6%	+165	+111	+181
Oilers	60.4%	-134	+110	-146

The Kings are built to be a playoff irritant. This is the third straight year these teams will face off in the postseason, and the Oilers advanced twice thanks to a 45.7% power play. That ended two seasons where the Kings were ranked 24th and 22nd shorthanded, respectively. While drawing Connor McDavid in the first round is daunting, Los Angeles improved to the second-best penalty kill, and its experience in planning for Edmonton's top line could be beneficial.

These teams combined for 6-plus goals in 10 of the 13 playoff meetings, and the total for Game 1 is 5.5. For the series, it will require some price-shopping and patience, but as the Kings' series price creeps up toward +180, they're the only side worth playing in what should be a tight series.

Best bet: Kings +1.5 games (-140)

Predators vs. Canucks

TEAM	GAME 1	SERIES	SERIES HANDICAP
Predators	+126	+125	+1.5 (-175)
Canucks	-152	-150	-1.5 (+140)

Tale of the tape

Skaters' scoring talent

TEAM	SNIPES	ES xG%	HDCA/G
Predators	15.2%	52.7	8.9
Canucks	15.4%	52.5	9.1

Monster statistical starts to the season for J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson, and Brock Boeser made them Canucks All-Stars, while Filip Forsberg's 48-goal season went under the radar alongside surprisingly productive seasons from Gustav Nyquist and Ryan O'Reilly in Nashville.

Goaltending matchup

TEAM	GOALTENDER	GSAx/60 (POST ASB)
Predators	Juuse Saros	0.16
Canucks	Thatcher Demko	0.37

Demko answered most of the questions surrounding a late-season absence due to a knee injury with 39 saves against the Flames in Vancouver's penultimate regular-season game. Meanwhile, 6.9 of Saros's 7.4 GSAx came during the Predators' 18-game point streak.

Team ratings

TEAM	MARKET	SEASON	POST-ASB
Predators	+10%	+9.9%	+9.8%
Canucks	+10%	+10.8%	+4.9%

One team is a division champion, while the other never got higher in the standings than a wild-card spot, but the Canucks and Predators ended up similarly rated in the market and via the metrics we hold dear.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

TEAM	SERIES WIN PROB	GM 1/2/5/7	GM 3/4/6	SERIES PTB
Predators	47.3%	+141	-109	+131
Canucks	52.7%	-115	+133	-107

Full credit to the Predators for making the playoffs with a stunning 18-game stretch after the All-Star break, but a run that came against just six playoff teams - combining hot goaltending from both Saros and backup Kevin Lankinen, 15 goals for Forsberg, and 25 points for Nyquist - is unsustainable.

The Canucks' Pacific division lead afforded them room to be complacent down the stretch, but in their biggest games, they shut down the Oilers and Golden Knights in playoff-style games. Rick Tocchet's group is deeper offensively and will limit chances against Demko - the better goaltender in this matchup.

Best bet: Canucks -2.5 games (+275)

Avalanche vs. Jets

TEAM	GAME 1	SERIES	SERIES HANDICAP
Avalanche	-105	-135	-1.5 (+130)
Jets	-115	+115	+1.5 (-165)

Tale of the tape

Skaters' scoring talent

TEAM	SNIPES	ES xG%	HDCA/G
Avalanche	14.0%	51.9	9.2
Jets	15.8%	51.8	9.8

The Jets rarely had a fully healthy group of forwards. Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Nik Ehlers, Cole Perfetti, Gabriel Vilardi, Mason Appleton, and Nino Niederreiter, plus deadline acquisitions Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli, form a core of nine capable of matching Colorado's top-end talent.

Goaltending matchup

TEAM	GOALTENDER	GSAx/60 (POST-ASB)
Avalanche	Alexandar Georgiev	-0.06
Jets	Connor Hellebuyck	0.56

The notable difference lies between the pipes, with Hellebuyck the favorite to win the Vezina and Georgiev essentially the definition of a replacement-level goaltender.

Team ratings

TEAM	MARKET	SEASON	POST-ASB
Avalanche	+20%	+9.1%	+3.0%
Jets	+10%	+13.0%	+2.6%

The betting market loves the Avalanche. Other teams could be top line-centric with mediocre even-strength metrics and non-descript goaltending and not get nearly the credit Colorado does.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

TEAM	SERIES WIN PROB	GM 1/2/5/7	GM 3/4/6	SERIES PTB
Avalanche	44.4%	+147	+104	+148
Jets	55.6%	-120	+117	-120

I feared the Jets hammering the Avs 7-0 in Colorado last Sunday - earning home-ice advantage here - might lead to Winnipeg being favored in this matchup, but Avalanche support is undaunted.

The Jets are the better team top to bottom, have greater depth, and are far healthier than when Vegas quickly knocked them out in last year's first round. Colorado overcame bad goaltending to win a Stanley Cup two seasons ago, but having to skimp on the most critical position in hockey will burn the club for the second straight postseason.

Best bet: Jets to win series (+115)

Golden Knights vs. Stars

TEAM	GAME 1	SERIES	SERIES HANDICAP
Golden Knights	+110	+110	+1.5 (-195)
Stars	-130	-130	-1.5 (+155)

Tale of the tape

Skaters' scoring talent

TEAM	SNIPES	ES xG%	HDCA/G
Golden Knights	14.8%	50.7	9.2
Stars	16.3%	55.6	8.3

The Golden Knights enjoyed an unprecedented high-danger chance conversion rate on the way to the Stanley Cup last year, but they're not the better team in that category in this matchup.

Goaltending matchup

TEAM	GOALTENDER	GSAx/60 (POST-ASB)
Golden Knights	Logan Thompson	0.15
	Adin Hill	-0.51
Stars	Jake Oettinger	0.12

This is a matchup between replacement-level goaltenders, as Hill's magical playoff run last year hasn't carried over to this season. Meanwhile, the Stars hope that Oettinger finds his way back to his early-career form that's eluded him for over a year.

Team ratings

TEAM	MARKET	SEASON	POST-ASB
Golden Knights	+15%	+10.0%	+1.3%
Stars	+20%	+30.1%	+16.1%

The Stars are considered the better team, but the Golden Knights continue to get more credit in the marketplace than they earned this season.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

TEAM	NEUT.WIN PROB	GM 1/2/5/7	GM 3/4/6	SERIES PTB
Golden Knights	28.3%	+208	+150	+311
Stars	71.7%	-167	-122	-241

The Stars should be a much bigger favorite based on season-long metrics and results, but the twist is that the Golden Knights expect to have Mark Stone back, completing a roster that added Tomas Hertl and Noah Hanifin and hasn't been together all season.

Loathe trusting what amounts to a hypothesis about the Golden Knights, even if Vegas is better than the season-long numbers suggest. Getting the Stars as a short favorite is tough to pass up.

Best bet: Stars to win series (-130)

(Stats sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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