Analyzing the betting market for Bruins-Maple Leafs Game 6
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And then there was one ... game Thursday night.
The Maple Leafs surprised many and kept "Be-Leaf" alive in Boston in Game 5 with an overtime victory. Now they have to do what they haven't done in a while: win a home playoff game.
Game 6: Bruins (-110) @ Maple Leafs (-110)If you're confused about what to expect for Game 6, join the club.
Luckily, with no shortage of intrigue, if you don't want to flip the coin on betting a game that's seen its odds hover around a true pick'em, this matchup should keep even the most casual observer engaged. Fluctuating moneyline prices, goalie changes, star unavailability, and four of five road winners have filled this series.
With all those elements thrown into the metaphorical pot, let's look at what's gone into the betting market's closing line for the home team in each game:
| GAME | HOME TEAM ML | IMPLIED WIN PROB. |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | BOS -135 | 57.4% |
| 2 | BOS -140 | 58.3% |
| 3 | TOR -110 | 52.4% |
| 4 | TOR -130 | 56.5% |
| 5 | BOS -170 | 63.0% |
| 6 | TOR -110 | 52.4% |
Everything mostly made sense in Games 1 and 2. After the Bruins' opening win, they got more credit ahead of the rematch. But that was tempered somewhat by a change from Jeremy Swayman to Linus Ullmark, as Boston kept to its goalie rotation. The Leafs rewarded those seeing the value in backing them against Ullmark as they tied the series 1-1.
A location shift from Boston to Toronto sent the Leafs' implied win probability (IWP) in the market from 44.4% to win Game 1 to 52.4% to win Game 3. During the regular season, an average consideration for home-ice advantage is 3.5% from neutral or 7% for home-to-road. Going to 8% for home ice wouldn't be a stretch in the playoffs.
What happened before Game 4 to send the Leafs from -110 as the opener to -130 as the closing moneyline?
Keefe: Leafs 'preparing' for Nylander to play in Game 4. https://t.co/NkTgCtl290 pic.twitter.com/yKYdPdxTeX
- theScore Bet (@theScoreBet) April 27, 2024
A move from -110 to -130 suggests a 4% increase in IWP with William Nylander in the lineup. Readers of our regular-season betting guide will note that we omitted Nylander from our annual list of "the 4% Club" - the players who mean the most to the betting market. This is likely because Nylander played all 82 games in the last two regular seasons, so we haven't quantified his absence. Of course, the Leafs lost Game 4 somewhat embarrassingly, so 4% might be an overadjustment.
The scene shifted back to Boston for Tuesday's contest. The Bruins went from -135 (57.4% IWP) in Game 1 to -170 (63% IWP) in Game 5. What made the market think it was 5.6% more likely to win?
For starters, the sight of the Leafs' stars bickering on the bench while going down 3-1 in the series and a switch to backup goaltender Joseph Woll wiped out the positive vibes from Nylander's return. But more importantly:
Auston Matthews is OUT for Game 5 against the Bruins. pic.twitter.com/ofzrDYnbfA
- theScore Bet (@theScoreBet) April 30, 2024
Auston Matthews taking a morning skate sent the line down to -140, only to have it shoot back to -170 when that didn't appear to go well. That's a 5% shift in line with our midseason player value assessment.
Of course, the Leafs won Game 5 without their star sniper, but the underlying metrics aren't ideal. Boston had 13 even-strength high-danger chances to Toronto's five. Swayman (0.99 GSA/x) was good, but Woll (1.65 GSAx) was better. The former shouldn't result in a Bruins victory more often than not, and the latter seems hard to replicate.
What do -110/-110 odds mean for Game 6?For the Leafs, it's the same price they could be bet at after a win in Boston in Game 2, but there's added uncertainty around Matthews' availability. If Matthews means 5% to Toronto (as the market suggested last game), the Leafs -130 (56.5% IWP) moneyline before Game 4 should be closer to -105 (51.5%) without him.
Maple Leafs -110 suggests Matthews won't suit up Thursday, so backing Toronto is viable for legitimate reasons: If he plays, you're holding a ticket at a valuable price. If he doesn't, the value is still near fair. There's also an illegitimate reason: After six straight playoff losses at Scotiabank Arena, the Leafs are due for a win at home.
If that's too much to fathom, Bruins -110 is a viable price to back Boston without Matthews. But if you wait and he's ruled in, the Bruins' odds will become more inviting, pricing them as an underdog with no guarantee Matthews can make the impact he usually does.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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