Hurricanes-Rangers betting preview: Hockey science and faith collide
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Here's all you need to know about the difference between regular-season standings and team ratings in a bona fide marketplace:
- The Rangers won the Presidents' Trophy, and then swept the Capitals.
- For that results-oriented success, which produced home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs, New York is a second-round underdog against the Hurricanes.
Let's dig into why that's the case, continuing to use tools we've sharpened leading up to the postseason (even-strength play, skating talent, and goaltending) to break it all down.
Advanced metrics glossary
- ES = Even strength
- xG% = Expected goals share
- HDCA/G = High-danger chances allowed per game
- GSAx/60 = Goals saved above expected per 60 minutes
- SNIPES = HDC goals + PP goals / HDC + PP chances
| TEAM | GAME 1 | SERIES | SERIES HANDICAP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes | -115 | -165 | -1.5 (+120) |
| Rangers | -105 | +140 | +1.5 (-150) |
Converting scoring changes at a high rate and having above-average goaltending are crucial ingredients to playoff success. Let's look at predictive metrics for those two elements.
Skaters' scoring talent
| TEAM | SNIPES | ES xG% | HDCA/G |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes | 13.9% | 56.4 | 8.0 |
| Rangers | 15.0% | 50.1 | 9.8 |
Going into the playoffs, we hoped difference-makers Andrei Svechnikov, Jake Guentzel, and Seth Jarvis would help increase the Hurricanes' scoring efficiency from past playoffs. Sure enough, their SNIPES efficiency was 15.2% against the Islanders, going from below average (14.5%) to above. That trio combined for five goals and 16 points.
New York needed only the minimum to eliminate Washington despite its mediocre even-strength metrics carrying over to the postseason, with an xG share of 50.5%. New York generated only 22 high-danger chances at even strength and 16 power plays but scored nine times on 38 prime scoring opportunities (23.7% of SNIPES).
Defensively, Carolina's high-danger chances against (9.8) went up while the Rangers' average allowed came down (8.5).
Goaltending matchup
| TEAM | GOALTENDER | GSAx/60 (POST-ASB) | PLAYOFF GSAx/60 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes | Frederik Andersen | 1.46 | 0.36 |
| Rangers | Igor Shesterkin | 0.72 | 0.79 |
Igor Shesterkin was as advertised in Round 1, while Frederik Andersen - unlikely to maintain his late-season run - played above league average.
Team ratings
Oddsmakers create moneylines based on a numerical valuation of every team. Here's the market's most recent valuation compared to how I have them rated (based on the metrics above) for the full season and post-All-Star break:
| TEAM | MARKET | SEASON | POST-ASB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes | +25% | +30.4% | +18.7% |
| Rangers | +15% | +11.4% | -0.01% |
The Rangers got through the first round on faith in Shesterkin and special teams that converted 6-of-16 power plays and killed 15-of-17 penalties. Meanwhile, Carolina's scientific plan to dominate at even strength carried it, as usual.
Best betHere are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.
| TEAM | SERIES WIN PROB. | GM 1/2/5/7 | GM 3/4/6 | SERIES |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes | 68.6% | -120 | -163 | -209 |
| Rangers | 31.4% | +147 | +203 | +265 |
If there was a hole in the Hurricanes' profile - like in years past when there were significant goaltending questions or their scoring efficiency continued to frustrate - we could punch a hole in their rating and claim value on New York.
Had the Rangers thoroughly dominated the Capitals - whose goalie, Charlie Lindgren (-3.72 GSAx), appeared out of gas after a semi-miraculous run to get into the playoffs - they might be worth backing.
In the end, New York doesn't have a notable rest advantage, and relying on special teams isn't enough to bet their short underdog price to win the series, especially considering how successful road teams are this postseason. Carolina is the rightful favorite and worth backing to advance to back-to-back conference finals and avenge a second-round loss in 2022.
Best bet:
- Hurricanes to win series (-165)
- Game 1: Hurricanes moneyline (-115)
(Stats sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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