Oilers-Canucks betting preview: Special teams, goaltending at the fore
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The Oilers-Canucks series provides Canada with its last hope to break the country's Stanley Cup drought.
Despite a 4-0 regular-season sweep over the Oilers that effectively won them the Pacific Division and earned them home-ice advantage, the Canucks are underdogs to the Oilers (like the Rangers in their series with the Hurricanes).
Edmonton's elite offense is more attractive to bettors, and the Oilers are rightly perceived as the more legitimate contender after five straight trips to the playoffs during the Connor McDavid era. But anything can happen in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, especially with the X-factors this series provides.
Let's continue to use the tools we've sharpened leading up to the postseason (even-strength play, skating talent, goaltending) to break it all down.
Advanced metrics glossary
- ES = Even strength
- xG% = Expected goals share
- HDCA/G = High-danger chances allowed per game
- GSAx/60 = Goals saved above expected per 60 minutes
- SNIPES = HDC goals + PP goals / HDC + PP chances
| TEAM | GAME 1 | SERIES | SERIES SPREAD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oilers | -140 | -270 | -1.5 (-150) |
| Canucks | +120 | +220 | +1.5 (+115) |
Converting scoring changes at a high rate and having above-average goaltending are crucial ingredients to playoff success. Let's look at predictive metrics for those two elements.
Skaters' scoring talent
| TEAM | SNIPES | ES xG% | HDCA/G |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oilers | 15.3% | 56.7 | 8.8 |
| Canucks | 15.4% | 52.5 | 9.1 |
Breaking the recipe for SNIPES down further, the Oilers' power play is the headliner. Edmonton figuratively giggled at Los Angeles' second-ranked regular-season penalty kill, going 9-for-20 in the first round.
The Predators scored on their first man advantage of the series, but the Canucks allowed one power-play goal the rest of the way (the semi-controversial tying goal in Game 5). Vancouver "limited" the Oilers to 25% in four regular-season games.
Goaltending matchup
| TEAM | GOALTENDER | GSAx/60 (POST-ASB) | PLAYOFF GSAx/60 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oilers | Stuart Skinner | 0.16 | -0.13 |
| Canucks | Arturs Silovs | -0.12 | 1.06 |
| Casey DeSmith | -0.34 | 0.16 | |
| Thatcher Demko | 0.37 | 0.81 |
There's a lot to unpack with goaltending in this series.
Stuart Skinner stole a pivotal Game 4 against the Kings, saving 2.6 goals above expected. That performance came despite largely mediocre play, as evidenced by his minus-0.13 GSAx for the series. Given the choice, the Oilers may take one win per series that's entirely attributed to their goalie, trusting their offense to win the other three.
Then there are the Canucks, who had three goalies register a win over the Predators, including rookie Arturs Silovs' shutout in Game 6 in Nashville (3.39 GSAx). Silovs has earned the first game against Edmonton, with the possibility of Thatcher Demko (the most reliable goaltender on either side) returning at any point still uncertain.
Team ratings
Oddsmakers create moneylines based on a numerical valuation of every team. Here's the market's most recent valuation compared to how I have them rated (based on the metrics above) for the full season and post-All-Star break:
| TEAM | MARKET | SEASON | POST-ASB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oilers | +25% | +25.3% | +10.7% |
| Canucks | +10% | +10.8% | +4.9% |
Vancouver rated 6% above Nashville - considered an average NHL team - in Round 1. Meanwhile, the Oilers were 50-50 with the Kings at even strength, suggesting they were on par with a team rated 15% above average.
Best betHere are prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.
| TEAM | SERIES WIN PROB. | GM 1/2/5/7 | GM 3/4/6 | SERIES |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oilers | 64.7 | -110 | -153 | -176 |
| Canucks | 35.3 | +135 | +189 | +220 |
You'll notice that odds in the betting market fall within the parameters of these valuable prices to bet, meaning the series and Game 1 are fairly priced, especially if you apply a small downgrade to Vancouver for not having Demko. At +220, theScore Bet offers odds long enough to back the Canucks as underdogs.
If it's Silovs versus Skinner, both have shown holes and the capability to steal a game. Rick Tocchet will drill into Vancouver that taking penalties isn't an option (though getting 37% of the power plays in Round 1 with over 50% of the even-strength expected goals was unusual).
What isn't likely to be discussed much leading up to Tuesday's Game 1 is the Canucks' 3-for-54 even-strength high-danger chance conversion rate against Nashville. Nine HDC per game is a fine average, but converting at 5.5% is an outlier, personified by Elias Pettersson's struggles.
Edmonton's surely a Stanley Cup contender, but not because of its defensive acumen. If Vancouver can convert HDCs at its usual rate (14%), four more goals may be at its disposal. And if Vancouver can kill a modest 75% of Edmonton power plays, that's four fewer goals for Edmonton, and an upset seems more palatable.
Of course, just because there's a valuable number available on the underdog doesn't mean you have to take the bet. However, its existence means there's value in derivative markets. I have the Canucks at -104 to cover a +1.5 series game line, so finding a plus price in that market is the conservative way to attack.
Best bet: Canucks +1.5 games (+115)
(Stats sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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