Stanley Cup Playoffs betting: Looking at whether to pass or play Tuesday

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

Tuesday's matchups feature a doubleheader of sizeable home favorites, but the two scenarios couldn't be more different. The underdog Bruins face elimination at the paws of the Panthers, while the Canucks still aren't getting much credit in the market despite having a 2-1 series lead over the Oilers.

Let's investigate the odds for each game and see if there's anything worth playing Tuesday night.

We came into this series thinking it might end earlier than the betting market suggested. The idea for taking under 5.5 games (+135) was that Boston would need to jump on the Panthers early to mitigate the effects of a long first-round series with the Bruins playing every second night for nearly a month.

That happened, but for one game. The other reason we bet on a short series is because the Panthers are considerably better, which has come to the forefront with three straight Florida wins. Now we're sitting on a ticket that cashes with a Panthers win Tuesday, a bet that doubles as a moneyline wager at considerably better odds.

Speaking of the pricing, the betting market closed with Florida as -160 favorites before the club's two home games - an implied win probability of 61.5%. After two wins in Boston, the Panthers are now -210 in Sunrise to close out the Bruins. That's an implied win probability of 67.7%.

What's changed for Boston to make it theoretically 6% less likely to win? Losing captain Brad Marchand is the obvious difference. But even though it lost both home games, the Bruins generated 20 even-strength high-danger chances to Florida's 12.

A price shift to this degree, combined with competitive analytics, would normally lead us toward a bet on the underdog. However, if you're holding a ticket that cashes with a Panthers win, there's no reason to do anything but stand pat.

In any fairly priced matchup, you look for spots in the series where the pricing might become askew.

The Canucks were the better team in Game 1, but for more than two periods, it looked like a rough outing from Arturs Silovs (minus-2.28 GSAx) would cost them. An Oilers win would've likely overvalued them in the market, but Vancouver's thrilling comeback splashed water on that and created a desperation level from Edmonton in Game 2 that we don't like to fade.

With the series tied, the Canucks jumped out to leads of 3-1 and 4-2 in Game 3 before going into a defensive posture in the third period. Silovs spiked up with 2.62 goals saved above expected (GSAx), while Stuart Skinner cratered, allowing 2.52 goals more than expected.

Considering Edmonton recorded only two more high-danger chances than Vancouver at five-on-five, had one more power play, and played over three minutes of six-on-five hockey, does a game with a misleading 45-18 shot total carry a price adjustment? Only if you think the underdog Canucks are better than the +175 moneyline suggests.

Two goaltenders capable of significant highs and lows aren't something we should be dying to predict nightly. The Oilers could further complicate things by turning to Calvin Pickard in Game 4, a goalie with a regular season GSAx/60 right around the NHL average of 0.15.

These teams have combined for 13.06 expected goals at even strength, or 4.35 per game, and that's before accounting for soft goals or those coming from power plays, which are a combined 7-for-17. With three straight contests going over 6.5 goals in this series, Oilers playoff games are now 7-1 to the over. But the betting market hasn't adjusted, leaving the total at 6.5.

If you're holding a Canucks +1.5 games ticket from our series preview, you have three chances for that bet to be a winner. For Game 4, the only case to be made for a valuable bet is on either the underdog or the over.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright (C) 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.