Stanley Cup Playoffs betting: Crunch time for home teams

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A thinly shaved sliver of ice has separated the Oilers and Canucks through four games, so you'd assume their series is destined for seven games. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes, having battled back with two wins after going down 0-3, are just hoping to get to a Game 7.

In Game 3, oddsmakers opened the Hurricanes at -170 to get back into a series they trailed 0-2. The market corrected that, closing Carolina as -150 favorites in Games 3 and 4. Now back in Raleigh for Game 6, an opening moneyline of -165 has tilted upward because the Hurricanes appear to have figured out the Rangers. Paying an ample price for Carolina isn't all that appealing, so we'll turn to the total for a bet in Game 6.

After being the difference in the Rangers' three wins, Igor Shesterkin has a minus-0.03 goals saved above expected in New York's losses. However, the star goaltender is one of the few players in the league we expect to be at his best after a pair of mediocre performances. Defense should also be a priority for New York after it allowed three goals in a single period in each of the last two games.

Following early-series penalty-killing catastrophes, the Hurricanes have turned off the Rangers' power-play scoring spigot. After four New York goals with the man advantage, the Rangers haven't converted since tying Game 2 in the third period. At even strength, New York has generated just 19 high-danger chances in Games 3-5. Meanwhile, after getting Game 3 off, Frederik Andersen saved 1.29 goals above expected in Game 5, potentially finding the form he brought into the playoffs.

Late-series hockey is played close to the vest, so with both goalies set up for strong games, we'll bet on a low-scoring affair.

Best bet: Under 5.5 goals (-120)

We rejected the idea of a best bet in Game 4. We expected the Oilers - down 2-1 in the series and at home - to tap into the desperation that often makes the difference in playoff hockey but were unwilling to pay a -200 price to bet on them winning.

Edmonton did prevail, but not before blowing a 2-0 lead despite making a concerted effort to protect Calvin Pickard by allowing Vancouver only four even-strength high-danger chances (Pickard stopped two). The Oilers only generated an average number of scoring chances (eight) at five-on-five.

They desperately tried to draw penalties to put their incredible power play on the ice, but the Canucks maintained their discipline, taking just two minors. Hoping for more than one power-play goal and a breakdown from Vancouver's seventh defenseman isn't a viable strategy for Edmonton if its Game 4 showing is the best it can offer. It's certainly not worth laying odds on the road.

Pickard didn't hurt the Oilers as much as Stuart Skinner's play did, but we should expect Vancouver to generate more five-on-five offense at home (with a more dangerous power play). If that happens, the 32-year-old journeyman may be exposed, and a 50% even-strength high-danger chance save rate won't cut it.

Given the plausibility of that scenario, with the Canucks' turn to be the desperate group, a bet on the underdog is worth pulling the trigger on.

Best bet: Canucks moneyline (+125)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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