Using anecdotes to predict recessions

Eight times a year, we award regional Federal Reserve Banks with our coveted Beigie Award. While the anecdotes within the Beige Book offer us fascinating looks into the economy, to others, it can be difficult to make anything of the stories they tell. That's why we're giving out a special Beigie award today to some economists who found a way to use anecdotes to peer into our economic future.

Regional Economic Sentiment: Constructing Quantitative Estimates from the Beige Book and Testing Their Ability to Forecast Recessions

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