The far right may not win real power in Europe – but it will influence those who do | Cas Mudde

Polls predict huge gains for the far right in the European elections. But it is too fragmented to truly capitalise on them

On Thursday, the Dutch will be the first to go to the polls in the European elections, which are technically a collection of 27 national ballots held over the four days from 6 to 9 June. This is fitting, given that the last Dutch general election in November 2023, which produced a shocking landslide for the far right, has been defining the narrative of the 2024 European elections campaign". Although polls predict huge gains for the far right, its deep divisions mean the victory may prove to be a pyrrhic one.

A much-cited report by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) predicts that the combined far right will win roughly a quarter of the 720 seats in the new parliament. This would be an increase in support of some 4 to 5%, and is in line with a longer-term trend: the far right made big gains in the European elections of 2014 and 2019.

Cas Mudde is the Stanley Wade Shelton UGAF professor of international affairs at the University of Georgia, and author of The Far Right Today