Which Way is the EV Market Headed? And Does the US Lag the World?

Wednesday the annual electric vehicle outlook report was released by market researcher BloombergNEF. And the analyst wrote that "Our long-term outlook for EVs remains bright," according to the Los Angeles Times:In 2023, EVs made up 18% of global passenger-vehicle sales. By 2030, according to the report, 45% will be EVs. That number jumps to 73% by 2040 - still short of what the world needs to reach net zero emissions in transportation, the firm says, but enough to achieve major reductions in climate-changing carbon emissions... [D]ifferent countries are moving at different speeds and with different levels of commitment. Today, "China, India and France are still showing signs of healthy growth, but the latest data from Germany, Italy and the U.S. is more concerning," BloombergNEF said. Global EV sales "are set to rise from 13.9 million in 2023 to over 30 million in 2027," despite the lagging U.S. [The article points out later that "For the first quarter in China, EV sales were up 37%, according to BloombergNEF. In India, it's 39%, and in France, 20%. The U.S. was a laggard, up just 4%."] Whatever the geography, consumer concerns about price, driving range, battery lifespan, and unreliable public charging continue to dampen many buyers' enthusiasm for EVs. BloombergNEF's findings are echoed by consulting firm McKinsey and the AAA motor club, in recent forecasts of their own. But EV prices are coming down, range is improving, and large numbers of public chargers are being installed, all of which could revive sales growth. Consumers around the planet are warming to the idea of buying an electric car, but they're moving slowly. According to McKinsey, 14% of 30,000 global survey respondents in 2021 said their next vehicle would be an EV. This year, it's 18%. In the U.S. it's a different story, where consumer interest in an EV purchase declined to 18% this year, according to AAA's survey, down from 23% in 2023. And nearly two-thirds reported they were unlikely to buy an EV next time they buy a car. Interest in hybrids is on the rise. One in three said they were likely to buy a hybrid, a vehicle that adds a small battery to an internal combustion engine to improve fuel efficiency. That's bad news for pure EV sales, at least in the immediate future, said Greg Brannon, head of automotive research at AAA. Early adopters already have their EVs, he said, while mainstream buyers remain skeptical. The article does note that major automakers "are losing billions of dollars in their EV division," with several cutting the EV goals for the U.S. (Though Hyundai and Kia are not.) And then there's this...A global survey conducted by consulting firm McKinsey, also released Wednesday, included this shocker: 29% of EV owners told McKinsey they plan to replace the EV they bought with a gasoline or diesel car, a figure that jumps to 38% for U.S. EV owners. Phillip Kampshoff, who leads McKinsey's Center for Future Mobility in the Americas, said he'd seen EV sales as "a one way street. Once you buy, you're hooked on an EV. But that's not what the data shows...." But the article points out that both BloombergNEF and McKinsey still remained bullish that adoption will increase in the future.

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