Winners and losers from Day 1 of NHL free agency

Day 1 of free agency, after the salary cap made its first significant jump since the pandemic, didn't disappoint. A staggering 185 signings were made for a grand total of more than $1.2 billion as of Monday night, per CapFriendly.

While there's still a lot of runway left in the offseason for teams to change their fortune - positively or negatively - we're crowning winners and losers from the first day of the frenzy.

Winners

Nashville Predators

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In case you missed it, Nashville owned Day 1 of free agency. The Predators reeled in three of the biggest unrestricted free agents available in Steven Stamkos (four years, $8 million average annual value), Jonathan Marchessault (five years, $5.5M AAV), and Brady Skjei (seven years, $7M AAV).

Will all the contracts handed out by general manager Barry Trotz age gracefully? Probably not. But Nashville is built to win now. The core of Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi, and Juuse Saros are all in their primes and locked up long term.

Trotz could've tried to keep getting younger, but the core might be too old to win by the time those young players develop. If he made modest moves, the Predators would've remained stuck in NHL purgatory - not good enough to win, but not bad enough to bottom out.

We commend Trotz for being bold. Nashville was a one-line team a year ago, but Stamkos and Marchessault could form a dangerous second line with center Tommy Novak (arguably Monday's greatest individual winner). Stamkos (34 years old) and Marchessault (33 years old) may not be able to replicate their 40-goal seasons from last year, but 30 goals should still be well within reach for the next couple of seasons. Both bring great leadership and credibility, too.

Skjei's price tag may seem steep, but he was the most complete defenseman on the market. The 6-foot-3, 210-pounder is strong defensively and can handle difficult matchups to free up Josi for a more offensive role. Skjei has scored 31 goals over the last two years as well - the fifth most among NHL blue-liners.

Before Monday, the Predators didn't stand much chance of winning the 2025 Stanley Cup. Now, they have a roster that's more than capable of a deep playoff run - on paper, at least.

Edmonton Oilers

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In Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final, Leon Draisaitl found himself centering the second line between Dylan Holloway and Warren Foegele - far from ideal top-six winger options (Evander Kane was notably out of the lineup due to injury).

The Oilers now have an embarrassment of riches in forward depth after signing Viktor Arvidsson (two years, $4M AAV) and Jeff Skinner (one year, $3M AAV) to ultra-team-friendly, low-risk deals.

Skinner, 32, has six 30-goal seasons under his belt. He's still a legitimate top-six winger, even if he comes with some defensive deficiencies.

Arvidsson, 31, missed most of 2023-24 while recovering from offseason back surgery but didn't miss a beat upon his return, tallying 15 points in 18 games. He's a speedy, pesky winger with a pair of 30-goal seasons on his resume. He's a close friend of Mattias Ekholm, too.

The Oilers didn't have much to spend this offseason, but they undoubtedly got substantially better and didn't mortgage the future to do so.

Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini

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The last two No. 1 picks both received some much-needed help.

Let's start with Bedard, whose most common linemates last season were 36-year-old Nick Foligno and the previously unproven Philipp Kurashev. Now, after the acquisitions of Tyler Bertuzzi (four years, $5.5M AAV) and Teuvo Teravainen (three years, $5.4M AAV), the Blackhawks have far superior options to support their franchise player.

Bertuzzi got off to a rough start last year but showed down the stretch he still has a nose for the net, scoring 15 goals in his final 29 games. Much like Foligno, he'll be willing to stand up for Bedard but is a far more effective player.

Teravainen is a highly responsible two-way player and a slick playmaker. He could be a stabilizing defensive presence alongside Bedard but also has the ability to get him the puck.

Celebrini, meanwhile, likely won't have to play with such poor linemates in his rookie year the way Bedard did after the Sharks lured Tyler Toffoli to the Bay Area (four years, $6M AAV).

Toffoli is coming off back-to-back 30-goal seasons and is, by all accounts, a great teammate. A 2014 Cup winner with the Los Angeles Kings, Toffoli will serve as a veteran mentor for San Jose's young core.

The Sharks also added Alex Wennberg up front on a risk-free deal (two years, $5M AAV). While Wennberg won't play alongside Celebrini, he'll serve as the team's third-line center and soak up difficult, defensive matchups, allowing Celebrini - and fellow young center Will Smith - to play in more offensive situations.

Washington Capitals

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It's been shrewd move after shrewd move for Capitals GM Brian MacLellan so far this offseason. Even before Monday, he took a worthwhile gamble on Pierre-Luc Dubois (while ditching Darcy Kuemper's poor contract in the process), essentially flipped Beck Malenstyn for Andrew Mangiapane, and added the cost-efficient Logan Thompson to upgrade the crease.

Fast forward to Monday, and MacLellan made two key moves to bolster his team's defense corps.

First, the Capitals traded Nick Jensen and a 2026 third-round pick to Ottawa for Jakob Chychrun. Sure, Jensen has two more years left on his deal and Chychrun only has one, but Chychrun is the far superior player. And at 26, he's firmly in his prime, while Jensen, who turns 34 in September, is leaving his. As long as the Capitals don't let Chychrun walk as a UFA for nothing, this is a home run.

Then, the Capitals went out and signed Matt Roy (seven years, $5.75M AAV). Roy, 29, isn't a household name and isn't flashy offensively, so this may seem steep, but he's proven to be one of the NHL's best shutdown blue-liners over the last few years. He's a major upgrade over Jensen on the right side of the second pair.

Are the Capitals legitimate contenders? No, but MacLellan has vastly improved all facets of the roster without mortgaging the long-term future. Even if Washington falls out of contention in 2024-25, MacLellan should be able to recoup value for pending UFAs Mangiapane, Chychrun, and Thompson at the deadline.

Losers

Ottawa Senators

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Steve Staios' inexperience was on full display Monday. The Senators' rookie GM made a pair of questionable moves that left his club older but not any better.

We already outlined why the Chychrun-Jensen swap was a home run for the Capitals. It makes very little sense for the Senators. Ottawa traded away a far better, far younger, slightly more expensive ($550K, to be precise) defenseman because ... Jensen shoots right and has an extra year of term?

Chychrun, a lefty, played on his off side on the second pair with Thomas Chabot last season, and the duo owned a stellar 54% expected goals share. They were simply undone by poor goaltending (.851 save percentage).

It's hard to imagine that Jensen will make the second pair more effective considering the steep decline he showed in that role last season.

Staios also signed David Perron (two years, $4M AAV) and Michael Amadio (three years, $2.6M AAV). The Amadio contract is fine for a third-liner, but Perron is 36 and showed signs of decline last season. That might not be the wisest use of cap room considering the Sens still need a third-pairing defenseman after letting Erik Brannstrom walk and still need to sign RFA center Shane Pinto.

Los Angeles Kings

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It's been an offseason to forget so far in Los Angeles. Swallowing his pride and trading away Dubois is something GM Rob Blake probably needed to do, but it still stings.

Blake also made a pair of uninspiring signings Monday, bringing in left-shot blue-liner Joel Edmundson (four years, $3.85M AAV) and winger Warren Foegele (three years, $3.5M AAV). The Kings would've been better off combining that money to retain Matt Roy and adding a cheaper forward instead of Foegele.

Edmundson is highly physical and more impactful come playoff time, but he's also a 30-year-old, third-pairing defenseman with a history of back issues.

Foegele's deal is far less risky. He's only 28 and coming off a career-high 20-goal season, but he was also a healthy scratch at times in the postseason. It's fair value but not exactly a positional need, either, considering L.A. lost its third- and fourth-line centers.

The Kings still have $10 million in cap space to work with, but a good chunk of that will go to Quinton Byfield's new deal.

Seattle Kraken

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Seattle seems destined to remain in NHL purgatory under GM Ron Francis.

If the Kraken were taking on bad contracts to stockpile picks and prospects, the lackluster on-ice results would be understandable. But they've been one of the most active teams in free agency over the last few years, whiffing far more often than they've squared one up.

The Kraken made two major splashes Monday, signing right-shooting offensive defenseman Brandon Montour (seven years, $7.14M AAV) and center Chandler Stephenson (seven years, $6.25M AAV). Both players are 30 years old.

Stephenson's underlying results cratered this past season on a far superior Vegas team. Now, he'll be asked to carry more of the load in Seattle.

The Montour signing is far more palatable. He was among the game's elite blue-liners as recently as 2022-23 when he racked up 73 points, but he hasn't come close to replicating that production in any other season. He should at least be a strong fit on the team's second pair with Jamie Oleksiak.

These deals would be appropriate for a contender willing to overlook how a contract may age, but the Kraken aren't even close to that realm.

Quick hits: Best and worst value signings

The following section doesn't include contracts mentioned among the winners and losers but highlights some of the other best and worst value signings of the day.

Best value signings

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• LW/RW Jake DeBrusk Canucks (7 years, $5.5M AAV): Betting on DeBrusk, who's just 27, is a wise choice. The three-time 25-goal-scorer is coming off a down year, but look for him to have a career year in Vancouver. This could look like a bargain in a year or two.
• LW/RW Anthony Mantha Flames (1 year, $3.5M): Mantha was traded for a second- and fourth-round pick at the 2024 deadline. At the very least, the rebuilding Flames bought themselves a second-rounder for $3.5M - perhaps more if Mantha performs. He'll be motivated.
• C Matt Duchene Stars (1 year, $3M): Duchene certainly left money on the table to rejoin the Stars, especially in a weak UFA center class. A resurgent, 65-point campaign in 2023-24 could've netted him a sizeable payday if he wanted it.
• LW/RW Jonathan Drouin Avalanche (1 year, $2.5M): Drouin had to have turned down more money to rejoin the Avalanche, right? He's coming off a 56-point campaign and is a good fit in Colorado.
• RD Jani Hakanpaa Maple Leafs (2 years, $1.5M AAV): Hakanpaa shoots right, is 6-foot-6, and averaged 18:39 per game last season with good underlying numbers. How did he get less than half the AAV of Edmundson?
• G Anthony Stolarz Maple Leafs (2 years, $2.5M AAV): Stolarz has never played more than 28 games in a season, but his numbers have always been strong - even on some horrible Ducks teams. He's saved 28.5 goals above expected over the last three seasons.

Worst value signings

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• C Elias Lindholm Bruins (7 years, $7.75M AAV): This is a lot of money for a long time for a player coming off a bad season. It's an intriguing fit with the Bruins, but this could age poorly if Lindholm can't regain his old form.
• LD Oliver Ekman-Larsson Maple Leafs (4 years, $3.5M AAV): OEL shined in third-pairing minutes in Florida, but Toronto gave him top-four money. He's a questionable fit on the Leafs' blue line, and he turns 33 on July 17.
• RD Mathew Dumba Stars (2 years, $3.75M AAV): Injuries unfortunately caught up to Dumba, who's posted extreme negative underlying results in each of the last three seasons with three different teams.
• RD Ilya Lyubushkin Stars (2 years, $3.25M AAV): Lyubushkin can throw bone-crushing hits and is strong in front of his own net, but he really struggles moving the puck. This is a bit rich for a third-pair defenseman.

(Analytics source: Evolving-Hockey)

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