iPhone Upgrades - Not Android Switchers - Drive Apple Sales, Bernstein Says

In a new analysis, research firm Bernstein challenges the conventional wisdom surrounding Apple's iPhone sales fluctuations, arguing that perceived market share shifts between Apple and Android devices are largely illusory. The report, which Bernstein sent to its clients, contends that the majority of iPhone buyers are existing users upgrading their devices, rather than switchers from Android platforms. Bernstein posits that year-to-year changes in iPhone unit sales are predominantly driven by Apple's upgrade rates within its established user base. This dynamic creates the appearance of significant market share gains or losses, particularly in China, where consumers are highly sensitive to new features. The analyst notes that upgrade cycles in China tend to be more pronounced than in other markets, leading to exaggerated perceptions of market share volatility. He suggests that the company's struggles in the region are more likely attributed to poor upgrade rates within its existing customer base rather than a mass exodus to competitors like Huawei.

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