Bitcoin and Stocks in Red: China Rate Cut and Treasury Yield Cause Concerns
China's second interest rate cut within a week created concerns about economic instability in the Asian region. Bitcoin and Ether shed some of their gains on Thursday before showing signs of recovery in the past 24 hours.
The equity market recorded bearish action, as Germany's DAX, Euro Stoxx and France's CAC dropped over 1.5%. Datafrom Investing.com reveals that the Nasdaq 100 lost 3% of its value on Wednesday due to market volatility.
These bearish events created concerns among investors and market watchers.
China's Rate Cuts Signal Economic StrugglesThe People's Bank of China (PBoC) revealed plans for a surprise rate cut in its medium loan facility rate. This rate will drop to 2.3% from 2.5%, providing 200 billion yuan in market liquidity.
This rate cut is the most significantreduction since 2020, and it highlights the urgency of policymakers' search for economic solutions.
However, the rate cuts do not guarantee an economic boost for the Chinese economy. Also, the tightening of the US Treasury Yield curve is viewed asthreateningrisk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
This curve steepens when the difference between the long-duration and short-duration bond yields increases. Investors become more cautious about trading riskier assets when the yield curve steepens, likely affectingtheir prices.
"Why is the yield curve steepening so aggressively today?" you ask.
Maybe because people are now aware of the cost of terming out $1 trillion of excess T-bills into coupons!*
*obviously, this is a joke. also, yes, i know half the move in 2s is because of the auction. https://t.co/lZ0IFI7xCZ pic.twitter.com/qtR9XCwGYE
- Stephen Miran (@SteveMiran) July 24, 2024
Market commentator Holger Zschaepitz saidit had been over a year since the last Chinese rate cut.
In case you missed it: #China surprised markets by cutting interest rates, its first such move since Aug 2023, signaling intent to boost growth in world's 2nd-largest econ just days after Communist Party leadership meeting. Chinese stock market not really enthusiastic. CSI 300... pic.twitter.com/XOwXpPxvci
- Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) July 22, 2024
He believes the rate cut is a signal to boost growth in the world's second-largest economy. Zschaepitz noted that the Chinese stock market is not so enthusiastic. Crypto commentator TMXC Trades believes that China's rate cuts will not have the desired effect.
He stated that traders in 2024 were betting on a massive and global cooling of interest rates. However, in mid-July, such expectations have not become a reality.
Meanwhile, macro research firm Global Market Investor reveals critical economic events in the US.
For week ending July 26, KEY EVENTS:
- US Q2 2024 GDP on Thursday
- US June PCE inflation on Friday
- US Consumer Sentiment on Friday
- 31% of S&P 500 companies are expected to release earnings with Tesla and Google after market close on Tuesday
https://t.co/YEI3ob5EV5
- Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) July 22, 2024
The US June PCE inflation data and US Consumer Sentiment will be released on Friday. These economic data could also affect the prices of risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin Traders Aiming for All-Time High Amid Rate CutsDespite the Chinese rate cuts, some Bitcoin traders are optimistic that BTC will soon rally to a new all-time high. If Bitcoin rallies, then the entire crypto market will likely transition into a more bullish phase based on BTC's dominance.
Analyst Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin has wiped out most of its -25.6% retracement during the cycle low. BTC took two weeks to recover almost entirely from a five-week-long retrace showing resilience.
Bitcoin has cancelled out almost the entirety of the -25.6% retrace
It took two weeks to almost fully cancel out a five week retrace$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/uqbOlx9Ajn pic.twitter.com/4sUzZVYQwF
- Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) July 22, 2024
Further, Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin's retest of the $65,000 support level was successful. So, it predicts a Bitcoin rally to trade in the $65,000-$71,500 region based on its current performance.
As such, the Chinese rate cuts and other macroeconomic events have not hindered Bitcoin's gains. If BTC rallies above the $69,000 resistance level, it can retest its all-time high value.
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