The Guardian view on Ukraine’s Russia offensive: a bold gamble is still playing out | Editorial

If the startling incursion helps to reshape the conflict, it will do so by resetting the narrative. But it could come at a high price

The surprise incursion by Ukrainian troops into Russian territory is not only extraordinary but risky. This is the biggest attack by a foreign army on Russian soil since the second world war. Two and a half years after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of its neighbour - and 10 years after it annexed Crimea - Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced that war is coming home to Putin". Kyiv says it has captured 1,000 sq km; Russia has acknowledged that its enemy's forces have seized a smaller but still significant area. At least 130,000 residents in the Kursk and Belgorod regions have been evacuated and, a week after the offensive began, the humiliated Russian military is still struggling to repel it.

The smartness of the tactics is striking. Ukraine appears to have identified and capitalised on a weak spot, acting so swiftly and secretly that one fighter described driving into a Russian unit as they sat drinking coffee. The strategy is less clear. Mr Zelenskiy said that he wanted to stop cross-border shelling. That sounded like a justification for western allies, though there may have been concerns that Russia would attempt to cross the border the other way, into Sumy. Kyiv also says that the advance has complicated" Russian logistics. Vladimir Putin has suggested that Ukraine wants leverage ahead of ceasefire talks. Kyiv denies any interest in the long-term occupation of Kursk. But diverting Russian forces from eastern Ukraine, where they have been relentlessly grinding down its defenders, has obvious advantages.