First Thing: Blinken arrives in Israel for 11th-hour talks on Gaza ceasefire deal

Israel and Hamas signal that a breakthrough may not be as close as mediators have suggested. Plus, how a global tax on the super-rich could work

Good morning.

The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, has arrived in Israel for last-minute negotiations to broker a ceasefire in Gaza amid fears that the war could spread rapidly if Iran and Hezbollah embark on retaliatory action against Israel.

How would this differ from previous truces? Unlike the week-long ceasefire in November, this one would be indefinitely extendable while the details of the next stage are negotiated.

What do the polls show? Better news for the Democrats than when Biden was the candidate, with Harris now leading or tied with Trump nationally and the crucial swing states roughly split.