To understand the escalation in Lebanon, we must confront what Israelis are thinking | John Jenkins

Netanyahu has his own reasons for prolonging the conflict, but many Israelis still want to see Hamas and Hezbollah neutralised

• Sir John Jenkins is an associate fellow in the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House and a former British diplomat

We cannot say we couldn't see this latest escalation between Israel and Hezbollah coming. There has been a standoff conflict between Israel, Hezbollah, Iran and the Iraq Shia paramilitaries since at least 2015. The proximate cause was Iran's efforts to extend its physical presence and that of its allies throughout Syria as well as Lebanon, as far as the Golan Heights.

The Israeli air force has consistently sought to cut off Iranian supplies of missiles and other munitions from Iraq through Syria to Hezbollah in particular. There have been successes. But none of them have stopped Hezbollah becoming stronger, as it acquired more sophisticated and accurate missiles and significant combat experience fighting in Syria on the side of the Assad regime.

Sir John Jenkins is an associate fellow in the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House. He was ambassador to Syria 2006-07; the Foreign Office's director of Middle East and North Africa 2007-09; and ambassador to Iraq 2009-11

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