Hasan Nasrallah is dead. Is Syria the actual prize?
by Stream from LinuxQuestions.org on (#6R3WG)
Yesterday Israel killed Hasan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's leader for more than 20 years. In doing so Israel allegedly flattened 6-8 residential apartment blocks with bunker buster bombs. According to Reuters, this lead to Iran shifting its supreme leader, Ali khamenei, to a safer location somewhere in Iran.
Now this does not mean the return of the internally displaced refugees in Israel or in Lebanon to their homes in Northern Israel and Southern Lebanon respectively. Nor does it mean that Iran will attack Israel directly. Even though one IRGC general was killed along with Hasan Nasrallah. Though there are some unconfirmed rumours that Iran might send its army or IRGC to Lebanon to oppose the forth coming Israel's ground invasion of south Lebanon.
But all of this misses the bigger picture. One country which has flown under the radar recently is Syria. Also the impact of all of this on Syria and Bashar al-Assad himself. Bashar and his regime is propped up by the following forces
1) Russian arms support
2) Iranian support
3) Various Shia militias from Afghanistan (Fatemiyoun brigade), Pakistan (Zainebiyoun brigade), Iraq, etc.
4) Hezbollah.
The first actor cannot seriously impact the running Syrian civil war. It is tied up in the "Special Military Operation in Ukraine". Last time Tu-22 bombers flew from southern russia, over Iran/Iraq to conduct sorties in Syria. There were SU-30/34 fighters deployed into Syria. This is not going to happen till the mess that is Ukraine is stopped. And Moscow will not prioritize Syria over Eastern Ukraine.
The second actor also cannot seriously impact the Syrian Civil War due to its financial crunch and its internal struggles. Last time IRGC boots were on the ground. This time in the forthcoming Israel's invasion of South Lebanon IRGC will not be able to supply men and material to two theatres, Syria and Lebanon. It will have to prioritize one over the other.
The third actor is limited in the size of boots on ground that can be deployed.
The fourth actor is the key over here.
If Israel invades then Hezbollah will have to move its personnel from Syria into Southern Lebanon. IRGC or Iranian Army help withstanding. Hezbollah was the key in making sure Bashar and his regime survived the fallout of Arab spring. What then happens to Bashar if the Syrian Civil war flares up again? i.e the Syrian Free Army and other groups (ISIS, Kurds peshmerga, etc) make a serious move for Damascus and/or Latakia?
And if Syria falls or exits the so called axis or resistance, then how will Hezbollah be supported in the future? Within a decade Hezbollah will be diminished significantly or be exterminated in the worst case from Lebanon.
For those who wish Bashar gone this might be the golden opportunity to make it happen. And possibly this might even be the actual aim rather than Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon itself.
Now this does not mean the return of the internally displaced refugees in Israel or in Lebanon to their homes in Northern Israel and Southern Lebanon respectively. Nor does it mean that Iran will attack Israel directly. Even though one IRGC general was killed along with Hasan Nasrallah. Though there are some unconfirmed rumours that Iran might send its army or IRGC to Lebanon to oppose the forth coming Israel's ground invasion of south Lebanon.
But all of this misses the bigger picture. One country which has flown under the radar recently is Syria. Also the impact of all of this on Syria and Bashar al-Assad himself. Bashar and his regime is propped up by the following forces
1) Russian arms support
2) Iranian support
3) Various Shia militias from Afghanistan (Fatemiyoun brigade), Pakistan (Zainebiyoun brigade), Iraq, etc.
4) Hezbollah.
The first actor cannot seriously impact the running Syrian civil war. It is tied up in the "Special Military Operation in Ukraine". Last time Tu-22 bombers flew from southern russia, over Iran/Iraq to conduct sorties in Syria. There were SU-30/34 fighters deployed into Syria. This is not going to happen till the mess that is Ukraine is stopped. And Moscow will not prioritize Syria over Eastern Ukraine.
The second actor also cannot seriously impact the Syrian Civil War due to its financial crunch and its internal struggles. Last time IRGC boots were on the ground. This time in the forthcoming Israel's invasion of South Lebanon IRGC will not be able to supply men and material to two theatres, Syria and Lebanon. It will have to prioritize one over the other.
The third actor is limited in the size of boots on ground that can be deployed.
The fourth actor is the key over here.
If Israel invades then Hezbollah will have to move its personnel from Syria into Southern Lebanon. IRGC or Iranian Army help withstanding. Hezbollah was the key in making sure Bashar and his regime survived the fallout of Arab spring. What then happens to Bashar if the Syrian Civil war flares up again? i.e the Syrian Free Army and other groups (ISIS, Kurds peshmerga, etc) make a serious move for Damascus and/or Latakia?
And if Syria falls or exits the so called axis or resistance, then how will Hezbollah be supported in the future? Within a decade Hezbollah will be diminished significantly or be exterminated in the worst case from Lebanon.
For those who wish Bashar gone this might be the golden opportunity to make it happen. And possibly this might even be the actual aim rather than Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon itself.