Polymarket Election Odds Tighten as Harris Closes in on Trump and Bitcoin Takes a Hit

• As we near Election Day, bettors on Polymarket have almost equal odds for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with Harris' shares climbing to 44 cents and Trump's dropping to 55 cents.
• Big bets on Harris over $10K suggest traders are covering for potential Trump losses.
• A FalconX report reveals Bitcoin's price dipping below $69K, triggering $350M in crypto liquidations. Traders are calling it the Trump Dump.'

With the 2024 US presidential election just around the corner, Polymarket users - a popular crypto prediction platform - are hedging their bets on Kamala Harris and Donald Trump with nearly even odds.

The platform has seen Harris inch close to Trump, reflecting the uncertainty swirling around the final weeks of this tense race.

So, what does this mean for our candidates?

Polymarket's Take on the Election Drama

On Polymarket, users bet in $USDC, a crypto token designed to maintain a steady value with the US dollar.

They buy shares' based on their predictions of the outcome of real-world events, such as whether Harris will win. Each Yes' share pays out $1 in $USDC if that outcome happens.

So if you buy 20 Yes' shares for Harris, you'll get $20 in $USDC if she wins, regardless of the share price at the time of purchase.

Harris Yes' shares jumped from 33 cents on October 30 to over 44 cents today, signaling a bump in her odds. At the same time, Trump's shares dropped from 66 to 55 cents in response.

The boost in Harris' shares could be from traders hedging their bets as a safety net. A recent analysis of presidential election betting trends found a substantial increase in bets over $10K, hinting that some bettors who backed Trump might be covering their bases with Harris shares just in case.

Where Do Trump and Harris Stand on Crypto?

When it comes to crypto, the stances of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris couldn't be more different.

Trump, who once labeled crypto a scam,' has done a complete 180. Now, he's touting himself as the crypto president,' claiming that digital currency is the future.

Trump's campaign now accepts Bitcoin donations and has rolled out digital NFT trading cards. He's even launched his own crypto platform called World Liberty Financial.

Perhaps in an attempt to target a specific group of single-issue voters and wealthy donors in the cryptocurrency space, Trump now promises to make the US the crypto capital of the planet' and claims Bitcoin's price would soar under his administration.

On the flip side, Kamala Harris initially stayed quiet on crypto. But as the topic heated up, she pledged to establish a regulatory framework protecting digital asset owners.

Part of her Kamala Harris Will Deliver for Black Men campaign is the plan to make crypto more accessible, with Harris emphasizing the potential for technologies like blockchain to broaden access to financial services.

Her shift sparked controversy after she highlighted improving crypto access for Black communities, drawing mixed reactions.

The FalconX Report and Trump Dump'

In the midst of all this buzz, crypto markets have been anything but calm. A FalconX report recently highlighted a major dip in Bitcoin prices, with $350M in crypto liquidations as $BTC dropped below $69K.

Traders call this rapid dip a Trump dump,' fueled by political uncertainty and concerns over future regulatory changes. This term is, of course, unofficial but fitting, given the volatility stirred up by election-season turbulence.

So, Who Will Win? Ask Polymarket

As Election Day draws closer, all polls seem to indicate a dead heat in the race. Crypto bettors on Polymarket echo this uncertainty, which will only clear up as the votes come in.

In any case, crypto's role in the election drama - both as a platform for betting and as a price-sensitive asset - is likely to keep the story interesting all the way to the finish line.

References

• Polymarket Presidential Election Poll (Polymarket website)
• Donald Trump Calls Bitcoin a Scam' (BBC news)
• FalconX Report (FalconX website)
• Polymarket Election Forecast post (X)

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