Trump 2.0: What His Return Means for the Dollar and Global Economy
- Trump's return could bring aggressive moves to counter de-dollarization' efforts by countries like Russia and China.
- Trump plans to use tariffs and restrictions to penalize nations moving away from the dollar in global markets.
- Despite Trump's claims of a good relationship with Russia, the Kremlin has made it clear that US-Russia relations are at a historic low, with officials expressing doubts over any potential improvement under his return.
When Donald Trump steps back into the Oval Office, one thing is almost certain - his global economic impact could be dramatic, especially regarding the US dollar and relations with Russia.
Trump has never been shy about shaking things up, and his return would likely bring a hard stance on economic power moves, including de-dollarization efforts by foreign nations.
Let's unpack what Trump's win means for the global economy.
Dollar Under PressureThe US dollar's dominance has been a given for decades, but its position as the top dog could be on shaky ground.
Countries in the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) have been exploring alternatives that could help the global economy reduce its reliance on the dollar.
This move, known as de-dollarization,' is more than just countries moving away from the US dollar. BRICS nations have been exploring the creating of a common currency. The aim is to reduce their reliance on the dollar and offer greater economic security.
This plan could weaken the dollar's role in global markets. And if Trump were in office, he'd likely view this as an attack on US economic supremacy.
Trump's Plan to Counter De-DollarizationTrump has already made it clear he'd take a hard-line stance against countries that turn their backs on the dollar.
His approach could include tariffs, trade restrictions, or other penalties designed to discourage such behavior.
For example, China's CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) and Russia's SPFS (System for Transfer of Financial Messages) are alternatives to SWIFT that these countries have developed to reduce their reliance on the dollar.
Trump's team is likely to respond with policies aimed at curbing their use in order to reinforce US control over global financial networks.
His past economic policies reveal his willingness to shake things up, even if it risks international backlash. Some examples include imposing tariffs on China as part of his trade war. He has also targeted EU subsidies for aircraft manufacturers, and implemented sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.
For countries already navigating sanctions, Trump 2.0 would likely bring more of the same. The result: pushing them to dig deeper into de-dollarization. Russia is already fast-tracking crypto adoption to bypass US financial control.
Russia's Take on Trump 2.0Trump has a unique and complicated relationship with Russia, and with President Vladimir Putin in particular. However, the Kremlin's view on a potential Trump presidency was less than enthusiastic.
His promise to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours' if elected immediately caught international attention. As a response, Russian officials have been careful not to express outright preference for Trump.
In a recent statement, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov indicated that while Russia remains open to constructive dialogue' with the US, President Putin doesn't plan to congratulate Trump if he wins.
Let's not forget that we are talking about an unfriendly country that is directly and indirectly involved in a war against our state.
Peskov added that the current state of affairs is already at a historic low,' hinting that there may be little room for further decline. Right now, it's hard to say if Russia sees Trump as a potential friend' who may ease sanctions and open the door for stronger economic ties.
It is practically impossible to worsen things further; relations are at their historical lowest point. [...] At the moment, the US administration is diametrically opposed.
Perhaps it's simply observing the situation, unsure if his promises will lead to any tangible changes. After all, Trump's protectionist policies could also hurt Russia's energy exports by making American oil and gas more competitive. Plus, his unpredictable moves on trade could complicate any perceived friendship.'
The Global Stakes of Trump's ReturnTrump's return to the Oval Office signals potential shakeups across the global economy.
His leadership could bring a fresh wave of aggressive policies aimed at protecting the dollar's dominance. It could disrupt international trade norms and shift US foreign relations in unpredictable ways.
De-dollarization is already underway among BRICS nations and Trump is promising to penalize countries that turn away from the dollar. The stage is set for a major economic reconfiguration. Trump's impact is bound to ripple far beyond US borders.
ReferencesClick to expand and view sources- Reuters Post on US Elections (Reuters website)
- Fortune on BRICS challenging dollar dominance (Fortune website)
- Bloomberg Article on Trump 2.0 (Bloomberg website)
- Associated Press on Trump's promise to end the war in Ukraine (AP website)
- Interfax on Kremlin's reaction to Trump 2.0 (Interfax website)
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