Fantasy Football: 2025 Rookie RBs should return to former glory set by their predecessors

Seasoned fantasy players know the importance of thoroughly scouting every rookie running back class. Of all the offensive skill positions, running backs have the simplest onboarding into the NFL. And aging curves are particularly dicey at this position; if there's ever a spot where I want to trend to the younger players, it's at running back.

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Of course, 2024 didn't follow this script at all. It was a dynamic year for veteran runners, especially a bunch of guys who changed teams (Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, even Joe Mixon). Injuries were somewhat muted for the season. And the rookie class didn't do a lot as a group, Bucky Irving notwithstanding.

Consider that last year only two rookie RBs (Irving, Tyrone Tracy Jr.) made it past 100 fantasy points, the lowest total of rookie 100-point guys since 2003. To be fair, Ray Davis just missed this (somewhat arbitrary) 100-point threshold. But even if we include Davis, it was the weakest rookie back fantasy return in over a decade.

I suspect this was probably a fluke. Even with teams shifting to a committee approach in so many huddles, last year's injury rate was unusually low. And given how rookie production at this position had been so predictable and stable for a solid decade or so, I think we need to see 2024 for what it likely was - an outlier season.

Prior to 2024, in the 10 previous seasons, there were between 4-8 rookie backs each year who scored 100 fantasy points or more (scoring 100 fantasy points most seasons will land you inside the RB40 cutline, which is a rough proxy for holding fantasy value). If we fold 2024 back into the analysis, 57 runners in all have made it to 100 points or more.

Here's how their draft capital stacks up:

• 1st round: 12 players

• 2nd round: 11 players

• 3rd round: 12 players

• 4th round: 10 players (Irving last year)

• 5th round: 3 players (Tracy last year)

• 6th round: 1 player

• 7th round: 1 player

• Undrafted: 6 players

This list isn't dominated by early picks, but then again, there are more bites of the apple outside the first round. Let's look at some recent rookie classes and see what common trends emerge.

2024: Two 100-point backs

Irving proved more dynamic than Rachaad White and thrived in the Liam Coen offensive scheme. Tracy similarly outplayed a veteran (Devin Singletary) and had moments despite the low-octane Giants offense. Davis, who just missed the cutoff, was far more interesting as a receiver (9.9 yards per target) than runner (3.9 yards per carry).

2023: Four 100-point backs

I get that Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson could be frustrating as rookies - Gibbs had to share the backfield with David Montgomery, while Robinson had to live in the mercurial world of Arthur Smith - but they charted as the RB10 and RB12, respectively, by year's end. That's a hit, and they certainly seemed to justify the first-round draft capital their NFL clubs spent on them. Speed merchant De'Von Achane landed at RB21 despite a modest 130 touches.

2022: Five 100-point backs

The league didn't select a first-round back in the spring of 2022, but it found plenty of talent at the position. Kenneth Walker III (RB15) was the most impactful, while Tyler Allgeier, Dameon Pierce and Isiah Pacheco all succeeded despite modest draft capital (Picks 151, 107 and 251 at the NFL Draft, respectively). Breece Hall just missed this 100-point list, mostly because he was limited to seven games.

2021: Seven 100-point backs

Najee Harris came out of the box with an RB4 season; he's since moved on to the Chargers. Travis Etienne Jr. was a 2021 draft pick who didn't debut until 2022. The Jaguars have changed the coaching staff, which makes you wonder if Etienne is still a part of the plan. Chuba Hubbard didn't do much as a rookie but spread his wings nicely in 2024.

2020: Six 100-point backs

Jonathan Taylor was RB4 in his rookie year and RB1 as the follow-up. Some injury-messy seasons followed, but he was efficient last year despite poor QB play around him. J.K. Dobbins was solid as a freshman (RB17), then hit injury problems. He was a nifty comeback story last season, and now takes his snaps with the Broncos.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire was definitely an overdraft by the Chiefs (Pick 32), and the same probably goes for D'Andre Swift with Detroit (Pick 35) and AJ Dillon with Green Bay (Pick 62). Swift is still getting work with the Bears, of course, but we won't be drafting CEH or Dillon this summer.

2019: Four 100-point backs

Josh Jacobs and David Montgomery have been consistent fantasy grinders between the tackles, while Miles Sanders and Devin Singletary have been hit-and-miss players and better served as secondary options.

2018: Five 100-point backs

The Giants ignored modern draft theory and spent the No. 2 overall pick on Saquon Barkley; it was a smash in Year 1 (RB2) before diminishing returns set in (RB10, RB119, RB34, RB6, RB13). The Philly infrastructure returned Barkley to stardom last year.

The Patriots took Sony Michel four picks before his Georgia teammate, Nick Chubb, but Chubb was always the better pro. Now New England and Cleveland history repeats itself, and we wonder if the Patriots or Browns landed the better of the Ohio State backs - New England selected TreVeyon Henderson a few picks after Cleveland tabbed Quinshon Judkins in the 2025 NFL Draft.

Kerryon Johnson had a solid rookie year with Detroit (RB33) but quickly fizzled out. Phillip Lindsay was a welcome surprise as an undrafted 24-year-old rookie.

2017: Six 100-point backs

We had one major hit (Christian McCaffrey) and one primary miss (Leonard Fournette) in the top eight picks, though the Buccaneers did offer Fournette a useful second act in 2021 and 2022. The later rounds offered some nifty hits, with Alvin Kamara a third-round smash and Joe Mixon a steady second-round grinder. Kareem Hunt was the star of this group initially (RB3, RB8) but his career didn't age well.

2016: Four 100-point backs

Ezekiel Elliott became something of a punchline over the last couple of years, but his first six Dallas seasons were fantasy gold (RB2, RB9, RB5, RB4, RB11, RB6). Derrick Henry wasn't asked to do much as a rookie (123 touches) but was a star two years later. His first year in Baltimore was obviously divine. Three forgettable rookies (Jordan Howard, Devontae Booker, Robert Kelley) joined Zeke on the 100-point chart.

2015: Eight 100-point backs

Todd Gurley and David Johnson both had their moments as the king of fantasy football, though neither player held his value long. Gurley never made it to his age-27 season, and Johnson's final four years were pedestrian (RB37, RB19, RB67, RB132). Melvin Gordon notoriously didn't have any touchdowns as a rookie, then plunged in 12 times in his second season.

Although this class scored well for first-year utility, only Gordon, Gurley and Johnson made it past 3,500 career rushing yards. When did you last think about Jeremy Langford, T.J. Yeldon or Duke Johnson?

2014: Six 100-point backs

This is another class that was more useful early but didn't hold value long. Carlos Hyde almost made it to 5,000 career rushing yards, and Devonta Freeman was a shocking fantasy right-answer in 2015 (and held value for the next two seasons). James White eventually emerged as a valuable Patriots piece, a nifty find with Pick 130. Though the voters went with Tom Brady, White could have been MVP of Super Bowl 51 (14-110-1 through the air, three total touchdowns).

Looking at the Class of 2025

The rule of thumb prior to 2024 was at least four running backs passing 100 fantasy points, and I suspect we'll return to that this fall.

A healthy Ashton Jeanty will sail past that number in Las Vegas. Judkins will be given every chance to be the two-down grinder in Cleveland, especially with Chubb gone. Cleveland does not want to play in high-scoring games given its uncertainty in the quarterback room. Omarion Hampton should have success, too. Henderson, Kaleb Johnson and RJ Harvey all have competition in their respective backfields but surely offer the most plausible upside. There's some early buzz for Bhayshul Tuten in Jacksonville, and although Cam Skattebo is behind Tracy in New York, he might be too talented to ignore.

Another pro case for the running back class is the subtle shift in NFL play-calling. With defenses focusing on pass defense in recent years and starting to employ more defensive backs, offenses have adjusted by trying to run the ball down the throat of these less-sturdy defensive packages. When the opponent goes light, try to beat them with power football.

It's been fun to see the running game make a comeback of sorts, and even if the veterans carried more of the torch last year than expected, I suspect the kids will be alright in 2025.