NFL 2025 Week 1 Start 'Em Sit 'Em: Trevor Lawrence's breakout starts now
Start: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
It's now or never for The Prince Who Was Promised. The Jags spent the No. 2 overall pick on Travis Hunter, splurged for Dyami Brown in free agency and bolstered the backfield with Bhayshul Tuten via the draft. That was on top of landing Liam Coen to be their next head coach after his dynamite year as the Bucs' offensive coordinator. Now Lawrence gets to test drive the new offense against a Panthers defense that ranked 31st in EPA per dropback allowed in 2024. Vegas is also buying the hype with an implied team total of 25 points.
Start: Bryce Young, Panthers
We're sticking in Duvall for a sneaky Superflex start. As bad as the Panthers were on defense last year, one team managed an even more pathetic showing: the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags ranked 32nd in pass defense efficiency. Their .241 EPA per dropback allowed dwarfed Carolina's mark of .204. Young returned from his early-season benching in Week 8 last year and had clearly leveled up. He hit another gear after the Panthers' Week 12 bye. Young was the QB13 in EPA per play and the QB9 in completion percent over expected from Week 13 onward.
If you're looking for him on the chart, he's the blue dot that almost perfectly overlaps with OROY Jayden Daniels. If that version of Young is here to stay, he will flirt with QB1 numbers in a delightfully easy matchup versus Jacksonville.
Sit: Caleb Williams, Bears
No team blitzed more than Brian Flores' Vikings last year. He sent the heat on 55 percent of his plays, a clip five percent higher than any other team. As a rookie, Williams ranked 22nd out of 30 qualified quarterbacks in YPA against the blitz. His 59.1 percent completion rate ranked 23rd. Worst of all, Pro Football Focus charted him with an accurate throw rate of 44.9 percent. That ranked last in the league. The gap between him and the No. 29 quarterback was the same as the gap between QB29 and QB17.
Sit: Justin Fields, Jets
I love Fields as much as the next Best Ball sicko, but it's almost impossible to justify playing a quarterback on a team with a 17.5 implied total. Vegas has the Jets as the second-worst offense this week, meaning they expect Spencer Rattler's Saints to score more points than Gang Green. Fields also gets a matchup with a Steelers defense that is intimately familiar with his game and perfectly designed to stop it. Pittsburgh faced the fewest scrambles in the league last year and allowed the lowest yards per carry on scrambles. A date with the Bills next week will be far more enticing.
Running BackStart: James Conner, Cardinals
The Cardinals are the second-biggest favorites of the Week 1 Sunday slate, trailing only the Broncos, who have a clear committee backfield between RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins. Arizona will have no such backfield split.
#Cardinals HC Jonathan Gannon on whether the message from the coaching staff to James Conner and Trey Benson has been that Arizona has two RB1s:
- The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) August 6, 2025
Not from me. It's compete for your role... Probably what they're alluding to - both of those guys - is they both want to play, and... https://t.co/wa4am0rlRUpic.twitter.com/t8p36SGrkd
Not only have the Cardinals signaled that Conner remains their clear RB1, but he's also a ball hog in scoring position. Conner saw 67 percent of the Cardinals' red zone attempts last year. That was the sixth-highest mark in the league. As a massive favorite over a Saints defense that gave up the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs in 2024, Conner looks ready to cook in his 2025 opener.
Start: Chase Brown, Bengals
I was skeptical of Brown's fantasy outlook during the offseason. He had the entire Cincy backfield to himself over the second half of 2024, and that alone is enough to fuel an RB1 stretch of games. That might not be true this year, but his Week 1 matchup will keep my concerns at bay for at least one more week. The Bengals are 4.5-point favorites over the Browns with a 26.5-point implied team total. That is the highest projection for a team on Sunday's slate. The Bengals should be up early, allowing them to establish Brown and their ground game over an inferior Cleveland squad.
Sit: Tyrone Tracy, Giants
The Giants are one of three teams projected to lose by six or more points this week, joining the Saints and Titans in the basement. An early deficit will put Tracy's rushing work in a bind. As a former wide receiver, you would expect him to excel catching passes out of the backfield, negating the downside of negative game scripts. That couldn't have been further from the truth in his rookie season. PFF graded Tracy as their No. 57 pass-catching running back out of 59 players. He averaged fewer than one yard per route and had the fifth-highest drop rate among running backs. Tracy is a two-down back on a team projected for a blowout loss this week. He will struggle to push into the RB2 ranks.
Sit: Kaleb Johnson, Steelers
All signs point to Johnson being a backup to start the year.
Steelers RB depth chart heading into Week 1:
- Rotoworld Football (@rotoworld_fb) September 2, 2025
RB1: Jaylen Warren
RB2: Kenneth Gainwell
RB3: Kaleb Johnson
Who's going to score the most fantasy points for the Steelers this season? pic.twitter.com/IqewOgWWe7
Week 1 depth charts aren't gospel, but Pittsburgh's is easier to believe after seeing them deploy their running backs in this exact fashion during the preseason. Johnson played behind Gainwell and Warren during the exhibition games. Warren was treated as the clear starter and then signed a two-year contract extension last week. Mike Tomlin then called him the Steelers' featured runner." Johnson is only a bet on late-season production at this point.
Wide ReceiverStart: Matthew Golden, Packers
Golden is the first of two rookies you should be starting from the jump. That's not the norm for first-year players, but these two newcomers aren't in typical situations. Golden was treated to an every-down role in the Packers' Family Night" scrimmage and held that through the preseason. He and Romeo Doubs were the only Green Bay wideouts not on the injury report this week. All signs point to Golden being the Packers' No. 1 receiver out of the gates. Green Bay's matchup with Detroit is tied for the second-highest total of the week at 47.5, and the Packers' 25-point implied team total is sixth-best for Week 1. All of the pieces are in place for an early Golden breakout.
Start: Emeka Egbuka, Bucs
The Bucs/Falcons game has a 47.5-point total, tying it for the second-highest of the week. The Bucs get an Atlanta defense that ranked 25th in EPA per dropback allowed last year, and they will do so without Chris Godwin or Jalen McMillan. Tight end Cade Otton is also banged up, potentially leaving Egbuka as a target-dominant WR2 alongside Mike Evans. The first-round rookie was drafted as a long-term play at wideout, but circumstances have changed, and he looks like a clear buy heading into Week 1.
Sit: Cooper Kupp, Seahawks
Kupp's 2024 was a disaster on multiple fronts. The good news is that he still had some juice as a slot receiver. Kupp averaged 1.9 yards and .26 targets per route from the slot. On the other hand, those numbers plummeted to 1.5 and .22 when he moved out wide. Kupp and Jaxon Smith-Njigba split the slot routes in their brief preseason appearance. JSN was a slot phenom last year, leading the league in catches and yards from the slot. The Seahawks are better off letting him keep that role in its entirety, but they are at least set to split it evenly. Either outcome puts Kupp outside (pun very much intended) of the WR3 range.
Sit: Luther Burden, Bears
Burden was one of my favorite bets all summer. If you're in a league that has yet to draft, he still is. But that's not because of what I expect from him in Week 1. Burden played behind Olamide Zaccheus throughout the preseason and should continue to do so into Chicago's opener. Do I think this snap split will hold for long? Of course not. Zaccheus is a journeyman with a career high of 533 yards over six years and three teams. Do I think the split is enough to keep Burden off the Week 1 radar? Sadly, yes. Burden is going to take at least a handful of weeks to ascend from a part-time, schemed-touches role to a starting job. He remains a hold in season-long formats.
Tight EndStart: Zach Ertz, Commanders
Ertz is more of a streaming option than a locked-in TE1, but maybe you made some mistakes while drafting and are in a bind. The Commanders have the third-highest team total of the week and face a defense that allowed the fourth-highest EPA per dropback last year. Among tight ends, one touchdown will be enough to secure a TE1 weekly finish versus the Giants.
Start: David Njoku, Browns
The Browns haven't gotten many opportunities to unleash their starting tight end on defenses over the past two seasons. When they have, the fantasy results have been glorious.
Njoku has averaged 15.1 PPR points per game without Deshaun Watson active over the past two years. Joe Flacco is starting for the Browns in Week 1, and Cleveland is facing a Swiss cheese Cincinnati defense. No team gave up more fantasy points to tight ends than the Bengals last year.
Sit: Tucker Kraft, Packers
No defense was better than Detroit's at bottling up tight ends last year. They gave up the third-fewest receptions and the fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends. This makes sense given their defensive setup. All three of their top-graded defenders in pass coverage were linebackers or safeties. The Lions funnel production to wide receivers because they have the talent to keep tight ends in check. Kraft finished last year as a TE2 on a points-per-game basis and averaged a dreary .15 targets per route. This isn't the matchup to elevate him to TE1 status.
Sit: Colston Loveland, Bears
Loveland is going to have to prove it to me before I start him in my fantasy leagues. History is littered with the remains of fantasy managers who thought, This rookie tight end is different." A few calls - Brock Bowers and Sam LaPorta - were correct. Dalton Kincaid is the more likely outcome, and it's a strong comparison for Loveland's current situation. The Bears split snaps between Cole Kmet and Loveland in their third preseason game. Kmet is the incumbent and a capable blocker, making him a clear speedbump on Loveland's path to stardom.