NFL betting, odds: NFL betting trends to know for Week 3's biggest games

It's not at all surprising that the Buffalo Bills are the biggest favorite on the NFL's Week 3 betting board (and by a significant margin).

After all, the Bills have put up 71 total points in two season-opening victories. Conversely, the Miami Dolphins head to upstate New York for Thursday Night Football having surrendered 33 points in each of their two losses.

So it makes sense that Buffalo is as much as a 12.5-point chalk Thursday night. (By comparison, no other favorite in Week 3 is laying more than 7.5 points.)

But the Bills being heavily favored also makes sense for another, more historic reason: They've owned this AFC East rivalry in recent years - and specifically, Buffalo has been a house of horrors for the Dolphins.

We highlight the details in the following NFL betting trends report for the marquee matchups on the Week 3 schedule.

All listed odds are via BetMGM and subject to change.

Dolphins vs. Bills

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Moneyline: Dolphins +575/Bills -800

Point spread: Bills -12.5

Total: 49.5

Last year, the Bills traveled to Miami for the Week 2 Thursday Night Football game and blasted the Dolphins 31-10. Seven weeks later, Miami headed north for the rematch and played much better, only to fall 30-27.

With that, the Bills carry a six-game series winning streak into Thursday's battle. But wait, there's more: Including a narrow 2022 playoff victory, Buffalo is 15-2 against the Dolphins since the start of the 2017 season and 20-5 since the start of 2013.

Miami's record in its last 13 trips to Buffalo: 1-12, including seven losses by at least two touchdowns.

How have the Dolphins fared at the wagering window against the Bills in the past dozen years? 10-15 ATS, including 4-9 ATS in Buffalo.

Including the 2022 playoff clash, the winning team in this rivalry has topped 30 points in 14 of the last 21 meetings. Not surprisingly, the Over is 14-7 during this stretch - including 10-1 in Buffalo.

Of those 11 scrums in Orchard Park, N.Y., nine cleared this week's consensus total of 49.5 points.

In 15 career regular-season and playoff games against the Dolphins, Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen has thrown multiple touchdown passes 14 times.

The lone exception? Last year's 31-10 Thursday Night Football win at Miami, when Allen had just one TD toss.

Allen's odds to throw for at least two scores at home Thursday night: -135 at BetMGM.

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 44.5)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Moneyline: Rams +155/Eagles -190

The Philadelphia Eagles double-dipped against the Rams last season on their way to winning Super Bowl 59.

First, they went to Los Angeles and rolled to a 37-20 Week 12 victory as a 3-point favorite. Then two months later, the Eagles hosted the Rams for an NFC divisional round playoff game and won 28-22 (but didn't cover) as a 7-point favorite.

Both of last year's Rams-Eagles meetings soared over the total, pushing the over to 6-1 in seven meetings since 2014.

All six of the contests that hurdled the total ended with at least 50 combined points.

Following season-opening wins over the Cowboys (24-20) and Chiefs (20-17), Philadelphia is now 31-4 in games played prior to December in the last three-plus seasons. The team's corresponding point spread record: 22-12-1 ATS.

It's also worth mentioning that since the start of the 2022 season, the Eagles are 14-2 in Philly prior to December, with 12 of those victories by at least four points.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 46)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET

Moneyline: Broncos +120/Chargers -145

No team in the NFL has cashed more tickets since the 2024 season kicked off than the Chargers.

After upsetting Kansas City in Brazil in Week 1 and blowing out Las Vegas on Monday night, Los Angeles is now 14-4-1 ATS in the regular season since Jim Harbaugh took over as head coach.

Right behind the Bolts? Denver, whose 13-6 ATS mark since the start of last season is tied with Detroit for second best.

Interestingly, the Broncos and then-rookie quarterback Bo Nix covered the spread in six of their first seven road games last season. Since then, though, they've dropped four in a row both SU and ATS away from the Mile High City (including a wild card playoff loss at Buffalo in January).

Denver's current road woes started in Week 16 last year with a 34-27 loss at the Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog. Los Angeles also scored a 23-16 upset win as a 3-point pup in Week 6.

That marked the first time since the 2010 season that the Chargers swept the season series from their AFC West foes.

From 2011-2023, the Broncos owned this rivalry, going 18-8 SU and 15-9-2 ATS.

Including its last-second 29-28 loss at Indianapolis last week, Denver has now cleared the closing total in six of its last seven regular-season road games (including four in a row).

Total combined points in those seven contests: 43, 51, 30, 48, 61, 54 and 57.

Meanwhile, the Chargers enter their 2025 home opener having cleared the total in five straight games at SoFi Stadium. Total combined points scored: 44, 61, 53, 57, 61 (vs. Denver).

Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, 45.5) at New York Giants

Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Moneyline: Chiefs -295/Giants +240

Although New York got inside the 4.5-point spread in last week's thrilling 40-37 overtime loss at Dallas, it enters this Sunday Night Football battle with the Chiefs in a 5-14 ATS funk since the 2024 season began.

Last year, the Giants went 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS at MetLife Stadium. Take away the one victory - 45-33 over Indianapolis in Week 17 - and New York averaged just 10.6 points per game at home in 2024, scoring 15 points or fewer seven times.

The Giants' Sunday Night Football points projection at BetMGM: 19.5.

Kansas City is off to an 0-2 start for the first time since 2014. Last time the Chiefs opened with three straight defeats: 2011.

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Andy Reid's troops did fail to cash in the first three games of the 2021 campaign (losing two of those outright). However, that's the only time K.C. has started a season 0-3 ATS since the 2009 squad whiffed in its first four games.

It's worth noting, however, that since Patrick Mahomes took over as the franchise's starting quarterback in 2018, the Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in three (or more) consecutive games at least once every season.

Under Mahomes, Kansas City is 12-7 SU and 7-12 ATS on Sunday Night Football, including 8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS on the road.

The Chiefs are also 7-2 SU when favored by 4 points or more on SNF ... but only 2-7 ATS.

Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5, 52.5)

Kickoff: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Moneyline: Lions +200/Ravens -250

Since the start of the 2021 season, Detroit owns an NFL-best 48-22 ATS record (68.6%). That includes identical 12-5 ATS marks the past three seasons.

However, since covering in 19 of 28 games as an underdog in 2021 and 2022, the Lions are just 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS when catching points. That includes a 38-6 loss at Baltimore in Week 7 of the 2023 season.

Despite an epic late-game collapse in the Week 1 Sunday Night Football game at Buffalo, the Ravens are 20-6 SU and 16-9 ATS in prime-time affairs with quarterback Lamar Jackson under center.

Then again, while Jackson has won 10 of 12 home games under the lights, he's just 7-5 ATS. Also, he's failed to cover in each of his last three games as a home favorite of five or more points.

Going back to their 32-point blowout of the Lions in 2023, Baltimore and its opponents have cleared the total in 22 of 30 regular-season contests.

The over is 12-4 at M&T Bank Stadium during this span, with seven of those games clearing 51 total points (and two others landing right on 51).