Week 3 Fantasy Football: 6 player projections that don't make sense
Hello Yahoo! I'm Derek Carty, creator of THE BLITZ projection system, which, if you have Yahoo Fantasy Plus, you'll notice is now available as an option to help you manage your teams. Every Friday, I'll be digging into three players projected to play above their usual level, and three players projected to play below their usual level. (I'll also be doing an AMA in the Yahoo Fantasy Discord every Thursday at 3 p.m. ET, so be sure to stop by, say hi, and get your questions answered.)
[Upgrade to Fantasy Plus and gain your edge in player projections and much more]
Things did not go so well last week in this space, with big flops from the positive side with Geno and Henry, while Kamara and Swift had very solid games on the negative side. At least Mahomes flopped, as called.
The key takeaway is that we're dealing with probability. THE BLITZ has a proven track record of success, and sticking to a successful process is key to winning fantasy leagues. On to Week 3 ...
Jordan Mason, VikingsTHE BLITZ Week 3 Projection: 17.4 carries, 3.1 receptions, 97 all-purpose yards, .63 TD
Week 3 vs. ROS: RB8 vs. RB29
With Aaron Jones Sr. injured, Jordan Mason is about to step into a massive workload for an offense that has gone much run-heavier (seventh overall, in a neutral context) over the first two weeks than they have historically (27th last year). It's not as if we had much doubt, but it is nice when the coach lays it out so plainly for us: Jordan Mason clearly has already shown his ability to be a heavy run, yards after contact, all those things. He's multi-faceted. I'm not sure we could have more confidence in Jordan as a potential bellcow kind of back."
Running back value is 90% about volume, and Mason is going to have that. It helps that the Vikings believe in him as a pass-catcher as well, giving him plenty of paths to points until Jones returns.
Dontayvion Wicks, PackersTHE BLITZ Week 3 Projection: 5.1 targets, 2.9 receptions, 38 yards, 0.26 TD
Week 3 vs. ROS: 8.2 vs. 5.0 average PPR points
This one is a bit more about upside than mean expectation, but the upside is massive (and the mean boost is one of the bigger ones of the week, even if it doesn't put Wicks into starting consideration in shallow leagues). With Jayden Reed hitting the IR and Christian Watson not yet ready to return from it, Wicks moves up the pecking order to become, at worst, the No. 4 option in Green Bay's passing attack. Not to mention, Tucker Kraft popped up on the injury report Thursday with a knee issue and isn't expected to practice Friday.
Of course, Green Bay doesn't intentionally feed any one of their options, but instead will either spread the ball around or identify a favorable matchup to exploit from game-to-game. If Wicks happens to have that matchup in this one, the ceiling is extremely high. While he can struggle with drops, he is an excellent route runner and can be a dynamic player with the ball in his hands. His targets-per-route rate of 23% since the start of last year is far and away the best on the team, well ahead of Reed (18%), Romeo Doubs (18%), Watson (17%), Kraft (14%) and Matthew Golden (10%), and he'll be seeing a lot more routes in this game.
Kyle Pitts Sr., FalconsTHE BLITZ Week 3 Projection: 5.1 targets, 2.9 receptions, 38 yards, 0.26 TD
Week 3 vs. 2024: 18.5% target share vs. 13.7% target share
While Pitts doesn't necessarily project better this week than he does rest-of-season, he does project better than his previous expectation. Last week, Pitts played 80% of the snaps and ran a route on 96% of the drop-backs - a huge increase from his 2024 role of 58% snaps and 76% routes. Sometimes anomalous usage weeks happen, but this quote in the Coachspeak Discord caught my eye:
Kyle Pitts is playing great, he's playing really good football. The more that he can be a legitimate blocker - which he's done a great job, he's shown great effort and strain, he's handling the edges really well when we ask him to do so - that just legitimizes everything else in the pass game. Really pleased with where he's at, he's playing fast."
Pat Thorman did the heavy lifting of looking up blocking grades, and sure enough, Pitts seems to have improved as a blocker this year:
...Pitts was losing snaps because of terrible blocking, so that Zac quote is a tremendous positive.
- Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) September 18, 2025
PFF TE run blocking grade ranks:
2025 - 25th of 76 TEs*
2024 - 72nd of 83 TEs
2023 - 81st of 81 TEs
*also currently 1st in pass block grade (in an infinitesimal sample)
If this spike in on-field usage is real, Pitts could quickly become one of the most targeted tight ends in football. And this week, he faces a Carolina defense that has been top five in Zone Defense rate this year, which tends to promote shorter routes and more completions - perfect for PPR formats.
More Week 3 adviceConsensus Half-PPR RankingsConsensus PPR RankingsMore Roster Advice: Trade Value ChartsMatthew Stafford (and Rams skill players)THE BLITZ Week 3 Projection: 22/35 passing with 247 yards and 1.41 TD
Week 3 vs. ROS: 15.8 vs. 17.6 average fantasy points
It's amazing the kind of impact a bad game environment can have. The Rams are implied to score a mere 20.5 points by sportsbooks this week. For those keeping score at home, that's just one point more than the Giants, .75 points more than Tennessee and 1.5 more than Carolina and Miami.
Stafford and Co. face not only a tough Philly defense, but also a Philly offense that just barely misses being ranked dead last in pace of play. They play slow, effective and keep opposing offenses off the field. Throw in the outdoor, road-game component, and this is enough to substantially drop Rams prospects this week. It's enough to force THE BLITZ to drop its one true love, Puka Nacua, from WR1 rest-of-season to WR4 this week. Davante Adams drops from WR12 to WR18 as well.
TreVeyon Henderson, PatriotsTHE BLITZ Week 3 Projection: 5.3 carries, 22 rushing yards, 2.3 receptions, 18 receiving yards
Week 3 vs. ROS: RB37 vs. RB32
Henderson's upside remains immense, but I'm not convinced he's going to make good on it anytime soon. After reports before last week's game said that New England might change up its backfield usage, most took that to mean Henderson would see more time.
Wrong. Henderson carried the ball just three times - fewer even than third-stringer Antonio Gibson - and saw his targets drop. Listening to the talk out of New England this week, this doesn't seem like a one-off anomaly or matchup thing specific to the last game. For starters, Vrabel was all raves for Rhamondre Stevenson:
Rhamondre Stevenson has always had good hands. He's athletic with the ball in his hand, he makes good catches, he dropsteps and goes, he turns 2nd-and-15 into 3rd-and-3, and those are critical. Excited for him. Just really excited that he could have a real impact on this football game for us throughout the entire day."
Rhamondre Stevenson gave us a huge lift yesterday. He did a nice job in the running game. His ability to pass protect, and also catch it out of the backfield. That was a huge key, and has to try to continue."
Compare that to what he said about Henderson:
We believe in TreVeyon Henderson's ability to protect. We'll keep working on it."
We'll keep working on it" doesn't sound like somebody who is anywhere near taking over this backfield. It could happen at some point, but for now, I'm down on Henderson.
Geno Smith (and Raiders receivers)THE BLITZ Week 3 Projection: 23/36 passing, 253 yards, 1.4 TD
Week 3 vs. ROS: 17.8 vs. 19.8 average fantasy points
This has nothing to do with Geno flopping last week and making me look like an idiot for putting him on the Week 2 good list - I promise. THE BLITZ does not like the matchup going outside the Vegas dome against a team with a sneaky-good secondary. The Raiders are underdogs, but not by so much that we can expect them to pass all game, and they may even become favorites if Jayden Daniels has to sit out. Brock Bowers didn't look 100% last week, and it wouldn't be surprising to see the team try to get Ashton Jeanty going this week at the expense of the passing game.